DraftKings NBA picks November 16: Should you use CP3 in his return?

We have just two NBA games tonight, so this is a very small player pool for DraftKings. The main tournaments are the same size, so there will be a lot of duplicate lineups out there. You really have to get creative, and lucky, to bag a GPP tonight.

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($8,700): Curry missed one game with his thigh bruise, but all signs are that he will play tonight. His price has dropped to the point that he can hit value with a good game tonight, but let’s be honest here: tonight isn’t about looking for value. It’s about looking for the most points wherever they may come from. On a normal night, I would avoid Curry against Boston, especially coming off an injury. Tonight, he is one of the few that can put up 40 DraftKings points.

Kyrie Irving ($8,100): The mask didn’t seem to bother Irving on Tuesday. He put up 38.25 DraftKings points, nailed a couple of threes, and was 7-8 from the foul line. He will have a tougher go of it against the Warriors, but the sheer volume of shots he is taking makes him worth a look.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Paul ($7,100): I do expect Paul to have an impact on the Rockets. They wouldn’t have brought him back if he were limited. The team is doing well with Harden and Gordon running the guards spots. Paul’s contributions will come mostly via defense and passing, but he put up 36 DraftKings points on the Warriors in his only game of the season. Paul scored just four points in that game. If he isn’t on any restrictions, he will do a lot more than that against the Suns.

Dark Horses:

Tyler Ulis ($4,200): Ulis and James are cannibalizing each other’s value right now. Ulis plays more minutes, so he is the easier pick to make value, but that isn’t always the case. Trying to pick which one of these two will have the better game is a tough effort, and if you hedge your bets by taking both, you are taking the slot of a more deserving player.

Mike James ($4,100): Except tonight. With only two games, playing both Suns guards is a way to make sure you get whatever production comes against Houston. Chris Paul is back, so they will be fighting one of the best on the ball defenders in the league, but someone will still hit value. The only question is which one?

My picks: Paul(PG), James(UTIL); James(PG)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

James Harden ($12,700): With Paul back, Harden’s assist totals promise to go down. I would bet his scoring does some as well. We know that he likely wont hit value against Phoenix today, but he should come closer than Paul, which could make him worth shelling out this much cap for anyway. I’m not as high on Harden as I was on Tuesday because you can make a solid lineup without him today. You couldn’t then. If you got the money though, he will likely be the only one who tops 50 DraftKings points tonight.

Devin Booker ($7,500): The news that he is battling a respiratory illness has me a bit concerned, but he has the potential to tear apart the Rockets on the perimeter. Harden will likely be guarding Booker, but will have problems getting to his shots. If Booker isn’t limited, he is a good bet tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Klay Thompson ($6,700): Thompson has been solid lately, but I am nervous since Boston has allowed the least fantasy points in the league to shooting guards. Thompson will be low owned, just keep in mind that there is a reason for that. However, if you are in this range and don’t trust Brown, I would go Thompson over Gordon, who is going to take a big hit in value with CP3 back.

Jaylen Brown ($6,300): The Celtics have been waiting for someone to step up since Hayward went down. They may have finally found their man. Brown has at least 25 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games. He is proving to be a solid asset for Boston and fantasy players alike.

Dark Horse:

Terry Rozier ($4,700): Rozier had an awful game on Tuesday. Genuinely awful. He has just two rebounds on 21 minutes. He had no other stats and was 0-5 from the field. However, his minutes didn’t go down all that much, so the Celtics are still going to use him like they were. Chalk it up to a bad game, and keep in mind that he could be a low owned value play tonight. It’s not a trend unless it keeps up. This has all the looks of an outlier.

My pick: Harden(SG), Brown(G); Booker(SG), Rozier(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($9,700): Durant has been the model of consistency, falling below 40 fantasy points just once (in a blowout) since the opening game of the season. He is a sure 40 tonight, even against Boston. If you don’t trust Curry or Harden to live up to their price, Durant is the man for you. He may not hit 5x value, but he’s getting you 40!

Honorable Mention:

T.J. Warren ($6,500): There is a pretty big drop, in price anyway, from the top at this position. Warren is a pure scorer, so he is capable of monster games if he gets hot. That makes him a GPP staple even on a normal sized slate. Tonight he will be chalk against Houston because his upside is larger than most in that offense.

Trevor Ariza ($5,200): Slowly, Ariza has come out of his October funk. He has at least 24 DraftKings points in every November game. Ariza doesn’t have a ton of upside because of all of the other weapons in that offense, but he provides a solid floor. That makes him great for cash games and for those just trying to cash in GPP formats.

Dark Horses:

Marcus Morris ($4,900): The Celtics still had Morris capped at 25 minutes despite what he was doing to the Nets on Tuesday. He likely will be on a similar restriction against Golden State, which makes him a risk and gives him little upside. That said, there isn’t much in this price range tonight. You can do worse than Morris if you are going this cheap.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute ($3,400): The Rockets signing of Mbah a Moute didn’t get much fanfare, but he has been a solid contributor for the Rockets when on the court. He has provided good value for those of us brave enough to use him in DFS. He is averaging almost 6x value on the season. This game against the Suns looks good for Mbah a Moute from a matchup standpoint as well. He could be where you need to look to gain come separation tonight.

My pick: Morris(SF),Ariza(F); Durant(PF), Warren(SF), Morris(F), Ariza(UTIL)

Power Forwards

Best Bet:

Draymond Green ($7,300): There are a lot of other players eligible at SF tonight, but Green has a dream matchup against Boston. The Celtics are relying on youth to shore up their issues up front with uneven success thus far. Green just keeps producing. The only teams that have held him under 35 DraftKings point were the rough and tumble Pistons and Wizards, and a Timberwolves team that saw his minutes cut in a blowout. Green is a strong play against Boston tonight because they will need him.

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($6,100): Tatum is still growing into his role in Boston. He will be a great fit here at some point, but right now he is still too raw to rely upon consistently. On a light slate though, he is worth a look against a Warriors team that isn’t that strong on the inside. Tatum could be a nice under the radar play tonight.

Ryan Anderson ($4,500): A sniper like Anderson for the outside is always coveted in a track meet like the Rockets and Suns game will be. Boston-Golden State will be like a boxing match. This is the track meet, and the game to stack. Just keep in mind that Anderson doesn’t have much for production lately.

Dark Horses:

Tarik Black ($3,500): Black has carved out a role in the Houston offense lately, picking up 41.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. It takes some doing to crack a Mike D’Antoni rotation, so Black has a legit shot at 5x value so long as he plays.

Daniel Theis ($3,300): Theis has worked his way into a larger bench role for the Celtics lately. If he gets some run tonight against the Warriors, he has a good chance at some nice stats. The Celtics want him in there getting experience, but there is also a chance he comes up with nothing.

My pick: Tatum(PF), Black(C); Green(C)

Center:

Best Bet:

Al Horford ($7,600): Horford showed no ill effects of the concussion, picking up 36.25 DraftKings points on Tuesday after 34.25 on Sunday. Horford matches up well with the Warriors, and is the type of center that could really give them problems. He wont put up Harden numbers, but over 40 is not out of the question.

Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($7,200): The center situation is in flux in Phoenix. Greg Monroe could be healthy enough to play tonight (stay away). Tyson Chandler is questionable. Both Len and Chriss will struggle against the Houston frontcourt. It’s looking like a good night for Capela, especially on the glass. He is a suitable alternative to Horford.

Dark Horse:

David West ($3,500): There is almost nothing in the middle or lower tier at center tonight. You pretty much have to pay up unless you want to gamble on the 15-18 minutes that West and Zaza Pachulia will get at roughly the same price. This is a real gamble, and the upside on either is minimal. I trust West a little more, but I would rather go cheap at another position and pay up here.

My pick: N/A; N/A

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