DraftKings NBA picks November 17: Forget Boogie Man, Its Boogie Monster
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks November 17: Forget Boogie Man, Its Boogie Monster
Our slate is back to a larger size with 11 games in our Friday DraftKings tournament. There are a lot of stars in action again, but it’s the ones that aren’t that will decide the winners. What value plays can help us afford the stars? That’s what we need to look at.
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The money line was at 237 DraftKings points with only two games going. My Bearded lineup made it comfortably in the money after I swapped Paul for Monroe and upgraded Black. The other missed because of average nights from everyone, including KD.
The winning lineup was only 303 points. To put that in perspective, that wouldn’t have even cashed you in the West Coast Special on Wednesday. He had Harden, Monroe, Jaylen Brown with good value on Tucker and Josh Jackson.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
John Wall ($9,200): The Heat have defended the point well, but Wall still racked up 47.5 DraftKings points on them in his first meeting. Wall is such a good producer across the board that there aren’t a lot of teams that can really shut him down. The only thing that keeps Wall under value is resting in blowouts. That shouldn’t be the case tonight.
Kemba Walker ($7,900): It may seem like I’m avoiding the top tier, and you would be mostly right. Westbrook is not hitting value against the Spurs. There is no way I’m paying five figures for him. The Kings have been just awful lately, so the possibility of a blowout has me off of Lillard. So instead, I will go with Walker, who has a great matchup against the beataBulls in Chicago tonight.
Kyle Lowry ($7,700): His matchup with the Knicks is a decent one. The thing that truly worries me about Lowry though is his inconsistency. He has between 33 and 50 DraftKings points just over his last three games! He is coming up on two weeks since his last clunker, so that makes him a little easier to use. His upside is higher than Walker’s, but the floor is much lower.
Honorable Mention:
Lonzo Ball ($7,100): Yes, his shooting is almost exclusively atrocious. However, Ball possess the kind of upside that can help you take down a tournament. Most nights I wont go along with the risk, but Ball’s Lakers are playing the Suns tonight. The meeting last week in Phoenix wasn’t as advertised, but Ball did light them up in the first game in L.A.
Jeff Teague ($6,800): Teague put up 37.25 in the first meeting with Dallas this year. That would put him near the 6x value that owners covet. With the exception of the clunker against the Pelicans on November 1st, Teague has not been under 31 DraftKings points on this season. he looks like a good fit for the Timberwolves right now, even if he isn’t a great defender.
Lou Williams ($6,600): LouWill is ripping up the association right now. He is averaging 34.5 minutes and 40.1 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. And we all know how weak Cleveland has been on the perimeter without Kyrie out there. Williams could be in for a night far above his value.
Dark Horses:
Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,000): Smith is playing way above his value right now. The rookie will likely cool off again at some point, but I would bet against it being tonight against Minnesota. The Timberwolves have given up the second most fantasy points to point guards this season. Smith has played at least 30 minutes in each of the last four games, sparking his surge. I love Smith at this price tonight.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,100): Clarkson lit up the Suns in the last meeting for 36.75 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t be surprised if he did that, or close to that, again. Clarkson doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he is in there to shoot and is playing a porous defensive team. This is the time to use him. I prefer him over Dinwiddie against Utah.
J.J. Barea ($4,300): Barea keeps putting up solid numbers even though he plays less than half the game. He doesn’t waste minutes, or shots, when he is in there. Barea put up 26.5 DraftKings points on his former team in the first meeting. He should come up with at least that again considering he did that in only 19 minutes. That is about four minutes below his season average.
My picks: Smith(PG); Ball(PG), Williams(G), Barea(UTIL)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($7,900): DeRozan has over 42 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. The Knicks are morphing into a pretty good team, but they still don’t defend the perimeter all that well. DeRozan is an expert at creating his own shot, but also is a good passer and decent rebounder. He is a pretty low risk option tonight.
Devin Booker ($7,800): Booker has absolutely torched the Lakers this year. He has 101.25 DraftKings points in the two games against them. That makes him nearly a 7x value, which is almost impossible at this price. It would be unfair to expect him to hit 50 again, but 40 DraftKings points could be his floor. That puts Booker near must play status. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that he is in the second night of a back to back.
Bradley Beal ($7,500): Beal racked up 39.75 DraftKings points on the Heat in their first meeting. Beal has had a great November, with 32 DraftKings points being his low mark on the month. I would look for Beal to have another good game against the Heat tonight at a fairly reasonable price.
Honorable Mention:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,700): Hardaway has emerged as the premier outside scorer for the Knicks. He has racked up at least 43 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. The only one he missed was a blowout win over the Kings in which Hardaway only played 24 minutes. I expect him to be in the high 30’s at least tonight, if not hit that 43 mark again.
Donovan Mitchell ($6,500): With Ricky Rubio experiencing soreness in his Achilles, we could see an even more expanded role for Mitchell tonight. The rookie is playing big minutes anyway, but if he is the primary ballhandler as well, we should see some more assists out of him. His outstanding shooting makes him a nice GPP play because the Jazz are wiling to let him shoot when he pleases.
Justin Holiday ($6,000): The Bulls don’t have much sitting around on this team anymore. Even if they are getting blown out, the Bulls still play their young core quite a few minutes because they want them used to playing together on the court. Holiday should be well rested after taking a game off for the birth of his child. Let’s see how the new daddy does tonight!
Dark Horses:
Austin Rivers ($5,600): When it comes down to it, I would rather have Lou, but both he and Rivers could have good nights against a porous Cleveland perimeter. Rivers is a good shooter than can knock down all sorts of outside shots. That is precisely what the Cavs have struggled with so far in 2017-18.
Rodney Hood ($5,400): Hood torched the Knicks for30 points on Wednesday, and will look to do the same against a middling Brooklyn team. When Hood gets hot, he can put up some big numbers. We have seen this from him before. Hood has a high upside tonight, but he also has a pretty low floor since he doesn’t do much more than score.
Lance Stephenson ($3,500): Stephenson opened the season in an awful shooting slump. He is starting to come out of that now. He comes off the bench, but the minutes are there for Stephenson. He should play at least half the game, and when he is hitting 40-50 percent of his shots, he provides at least 7x value at this price. Stephenson turned in a decent game against the Pistons nine days ago. He is a decent punt option tonight.
My pick: Hardaway(SG), Hood(SF), Stephenson(UTIL); DeRozan(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
LeBron James ($11,200): On a slate this large, it is fairly easy to find a sure 5x value at every position without paying for a star. I tend to think that LeBron is a touch overpriced tonight. Can the Cavs really keep playing him three quarters or more every game? The Cavs have been playing close games lately, so LeBron is still on the court enough to get plenty of chances. I just don’t know that he can get the 56 DraftKings points we need against the Clippers.
Paul George ($8,300): It was the Bulls of all teams that finally shut down George. His miserable game on Wednesday should serve to keep his ownership down. So will his matchup with the Spurs. That said, Kawhi Leonard isn’t stepping on that court tonight. The Spurs are in the bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to small forwards without Kawhi. George has solid potential and is practically guaranteed single digit ownership.
Honorable Mention:
T.J. Warren ($6,500): Warren has come through for 82 DraftKings points in the two games against the Lakers so far this year. Like Booker,I am a bit concerned about the second night of a back to back, but the flight from Phoenix to L.A. isn’t that bad. Warren has actually performed better on the second night of every back to back set so far this year. That trend could continue.
Tobias Harris ($6,400): Harris has cooled off since a scorching start to the season, but his numbers are finally starting to level off. He put up 38.5 against the Pacers nine days ago. There is no reason to think that he can’t hit 6x value against them once again.
Will Barton ($5,800): Barton is outplaying Gary Harris, and is seeing more minutes than him as a result. Barton has at least 38 DraftKings points in three of his last five, and has been above 4x value in those other two games.Barton appears to have a pretty solid floor right now, and quite a bit of upside.
Dark Horses:
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,500): Bogdanovic struggled against the Rockets and Grizzlies, but that can be expected. He gets a bit of a reprieve tonight against a Detroit team that he was solid against ten days ago. He has decent upside since Bogdanovic can put up points in a hurry, but there is also a chance that he comes in well under value.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($4,200): The return of Batum didn’t hurt MKG at all. In fact, Kidd-Gilchrist had his best game of the year with Batum in there. Soon Batum will see his full compliment of minutes. At that time, MKG could see a bit of a reduction. Right now, he looks like a nice puny play with decent upside.
C.J. Miles ($3,800): Miles is less attractive if Norman Powell is able to play. That said, Miles played a lot better than OG Anounby in Powell’s absence. Miles is going to back up the position no matter what, but he will see more minutes and more shots if Powell isn’t in uniform.
My pick: N/A; Warren(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bet:
Kristaps Porzingis ($9,000): For the second time this year, the Raptors defied their numbers and shut down the Brow. Davis has a similarly unattractive matchup tonight with Denver. I trust Porzingis a lot more right now. All six of his last six games have produced a higher output thhan Davis had against Toronto on Wednesday. I’ll gladly play Porzingis for $1,200 less.
Blake Griffin ($8,800): The Cavs have allowed the most fantasy points to power forwards so far this year. The absence of Tristan Thompson has something to do with that, but the fact that Kevin Love doesn’t defend all that well is magnified. Griffin is the type of player that can really give Cleveland problems on the inside. There aren’t a lot of players that I would pay up for tonight, but Griffin is definitely one of them.
Honorable Mention:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,000): Aldridge looked gassed against Minnesota on Wednesday on the second night of a back to back. Just like he did against the Bulls back on Saturday. Aldridge has done well in games when he is rested. That will be the case against the Thunder today. I’m not sure how well Melo can defend LMA, but I would guess it’s not all that well since Melo is more of a small forward.
Carmelo Anthony ($6,800): Anthony is a pure scorer, but hasn’t done much else so far for the Thunder. LMA is going to have issues with him as well. However, if I have the extra money, I am going with Aldridge because I think Anthony’s rebounds are going to be down tangling with the taller and more athletic Aldridge. For the price though, Melo is a decent option. He will get his.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,300): Markkanen is still playing well enough to hold off Bobby Portis, at least for the time being. I see him matching up better with the smaller and more athletic Hornets. Portis is still getting solid minutes, but Markkanen’s production hasn’t dipped enough to move me off of him at this price. He is still a solid value most night.
Dark Horses:
Derrick Favors ($5,900): Favors has seen more minutes with Rudy Gobert out, but he hasn’t really got his offense going. The exception was the first game in which Gobert sat. That was against the Nets, and Favors put up 46 DraftKings points. He may not get as many in Brooklyn, but I still see Favors with at least 6x value tonight.
Domantas Sabonis ($5,800): Sabonis has had a solid first year with the Pacers. The team wants him to be a part of the future here, so he will continue to get plenty of minutes. Sabonis missed the first game against the Pistons with a calf injury. Outside of Drummond, Detroit doesn’t have much up front. Sabonis could come up with some pretty good numbers tonight.
My pick: Griffin(PF), Favors(F); Markkanen(PF)
Center:
Best Bet:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900): Statistically, the Nuggets are a top five team in fantasy points allowed to power forwards and centers. I don’t think Boogie cares. He has not been under 45 DraftKings points since the first week of the season. They have played some good interior teams in that span. While the teams are making sure Davis doesn’t beat them, Boogie is quietly being a monster. Don’t be shocked if he hits 50 again. He has only been under that once this month.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400): Towns picked up 54.5 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes in the first meeting between these two teams. The big man has been dominant lately, and the last two games were against the Jazz and the Spurs. If they couldn’t stop him, Don’t count on Dallas doing it.
Honorable Mention:
Andre Drummond ($8,900): Drummond picked up 47.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Indiana. Just another day at the office for Drummond. He has been over 5x value at this price eight times in the last ten games. It’s going to be nine of 11 after this.
Hassan Whiteside ($8,400): The Wizards are tough up front, but Whiteside got them for 14 points and 21 rebounds in MIami on Wednesday. The series moves up the coast for tonight, but Whiteside definitely has the ability to do it to them again. There are a lot of good options at center, so I’m guessing that Whiteside will come with low ownership as well.
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,000): The Kings have been awful at nearly every position lately, but it seems as though center has been the worst. Sacramento had an absolutely brutal three game east coast swing in which they lost every game by at least 24 points. It might get better at home, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Dark Horses:
Brook Lopez ($5,500): Lopez is averaging almost 7x value at this price against the Suns in two games this year. Now, those were without Monroe, so the going wont be as easy for BroLo tonight. However, with his price this low, there is value to be had here. Or he could go belly up. He has been so inconsistent, I could legitimately see either happening.
Greg Monroe ($4,100): Monroe was outstanding in his first game with the Suns last night. I don’t know that it really matters if Tyson Chandler is healthy or not. Monroe is clearly the best player Phoenix has up front. He fit in nicely here. Don’t be shocked if the Suns elect to keep Monroe and deal Chandler. At any rate, Monroe could be a huge bargain again tonight, but this is the last time he will be.
My pick: Towns(C), Monroe(UTIL); Nurkic(C), Monroe(F)
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