DraftKings NBA picks November 18: Ride The Warriors Frontcourt
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks November 18: Ride The Warriors Frontcourt
We have seven NBA games in our DraftKings tournaments, which puts about half the league in action. With the NBA season in full swing, we have seen some injuries already that have altered the course of DFS. Where can we find our bargains tonight? Let’s do some digging!
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The money line was only at 249 DraftKings points. My Monroe pick really hurt one lineup. The other was done in by bad nights from Dennis Smith and Towns.
The winning lineup was still pretty high at 346.25. He had huge nights from Dinwiddie, Kris Dunn, and Wes Johnson to go with Love, Lowry and DeAndre Jordan.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Kyrie Irving ($8,500): It’s another tough day at the top for point guards. The only team to really hold Ben Simmons in check was the Warriors. Curry picked up nearly 5x value in that game, but he didn’t look right on Thursday. There is blowout potential with Lillard, so next in line is Kyrie. The Hawks are one of the worst teams in the league trying to defend the point. Irving hasn’t come anywhere close to value lately, so there is risk involved here.
Kemba Walker ($7,700): Walker gets another pretty favorable opponent in the Clippers in the second half of a back to back. That doesn’t mean much though since Walker struggled against Minnesota earlier this month. When he’s on, Walker is a very reliable player. When he’s off, he is surprisingly average. He has been on a lot more often lately though.
Honorable Mention:
Lou Williams ($6,800): Williams is never a sure thing since he relies so much on scoring. However, he is seeing a high volume of shots and he is a notoriously streaky player. Right now he is hot, so Williams is worth every bit of this price in GPP formats. Williams doesn’t have much of a ceiling when his shot is falling.
Dennis Schroder ($6,600): Schroder picked up 39 DraftKings points in the first game against Boston. He and Kyrie both had big games for their price, and they should again. I’m not opposed to using both of them if you have the cash to do so.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,400): Bledsoe is adjusting nicely to life with a good team. No longer does he have to do everything himself. He is learning that passing the ball can help the team win as much as taking 30 shots a game. His game is evolving in Milwaukee. The early returns have been great. Bledsoe is still a bargain at this price.
Dark Horses:
Austin Rivers ($5,400): LouWill and Rivers must think Christmas came early. First the Bulls, then Charlotte? It is a smorgasbord of open shots from outside. Both of them are priced to buy in GPP formats, and could be the push you need to catapult your lineup up the leaderboard.
J.J. Barea ($4,300): Barea has no upside, but his floor is practically his ceiling. He is remarkably consistent, and makes a good cash game punt right now. In a matchup like this, he has a touch more upside since the Bucks don’t defend the perimeter all that well. That said, I am a little worried about having Brogdon on the second unit now.
Mario Chalmers ($4,100): Chalmers was awful on Wednesday until a big fourth quarter got him back into DFS players good graces. Chalmers doesn’t have much for upside, but he is a solid producer when given a chance. He is a solid defender and a good passer, and will easily hit 6x value while his price is this low. With Conley out for the foreseeable future, expect Chalmers to be a popular play.
My picks: Lillard(PG), Bledsoe(G); Walker(PG), Chalmers(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,100): Harden is going to be tough to pay up for once Paul is back to playing his normal compliment of minutes. That isn’t going to happen tonight though, and considering what The Beard did to Memphis last time, I have to at least consider him. Harden racked up 58.5 DraftKings points on the Grizz. He should be up around that area again tonight, but I completely understand if you fade him. There are enough other places to pick up value tonight.
Tyreke Evans ($7,000): Evans saw the biggest stat boost with Conley out, and that will likely remain the case going forward. I still think Chalmers is a sold value play, but it is Evans who when from being a decent option in good matchups to a must play no matter the opponent. Evans is now averaging 41.1 DraftKings points over his last four games. He looks like a huge bargain against Houston.
Honorable Mention:
Donovan Mitchell ($6,700): Hood struggled with Ricky Rubio out, but Mitchell bailed the Jazz out. He had a solid night across the board, once again flirting with 40 DraftKings points. Mitchell is the most reliable of the Jazz backcourt options right now. He may not quite have the upside of Hood, but Mitchell isn’t going to burn you with a single digit effort or one in the low teens.
Jaylen Brown ($6,500): Brown took some time adjusting to his new role in Boston, but he seems to have settled in nicely. He had a big game against the Warriors on Thursday. He will have a chance to do the same against a porous Atlanta defense. Just beware of a blowout.
Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,200): Smith has become a consistent force in the Dallas backcourt. He has five straight games of at least 30 DraftKings points. Four of those have been above 35. He looks like a really good bargain play right about now.
Dark Horses:
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,300): Brogdon is still seeing solid minutes with the second unit after the arrival of Bledsoe, and truth be told, his production has not suffered that much. What has suffered is his appeal in GPP’s. His upside is very limited off the bench. However, his consistent production will still sit well with bargain hunters in cash games.
Jonathon Simmons ($4,500): Simmons also lacks significant upside, but he has at least 5x value in six straight games. He is a great punt play because you know exactly what to expect from him. Some like their punts to have upside. Others prefer them to be consistent. Simmons is one of the latter.
Nick Young ($3,300): Young racked up 25 DraftKings points in 21 minutes in the first meeting with Philadelphia. Of course, it helped that it was a convincing win. Young likely wont get that much of a run if the game stays close, but if it gets out of hand again, Young would benefit the most from it.
My pick: Evans(SG); Mitchell(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400): It’s not that I don’t trust Giannis. I just have questions about whether he can (or should) continue to play 40-45 minutes per game. That is why he has put up such monster numbers this season. We are so spoiled by his numbers that the 42.5 DraftKings point that Antetokounmpo put up on Detroit Wednesday night was his low mark on the season. He has a very high floor, which I love when paying top dollar, but I don’t know that he can hit value against Dallas.
Kevin Durant ($9,600): Dallas was solid against LeBron last week, so I kind of think they can keep Giannis under 5x value at his high price. Even in a convincing win, Durant had 48.75 DraftKings points against the Sixers on Saturday. I like him to hit value before Giannis, but Durant doesn’t have nearly the upside that Giannis does.
Honorable Mention:
Robert Covington ($6,300): Covington struggled against the Warriors in the first meeting. He didn’t get the rebounds that he normally gets against most teams. That said, Covington is still a solid producer across the board. You can’t really ignore his consistency, but I would rather use Covington in cash games tonight.
Evan Fournier ($6,100): Fournier has not been the force that he was when Elfrid Payton was out. I normally wouldn’t consider him, but seeing how the Nets did against the beat up Utah wings, I like Fournier more and more. He probably has the best outside shot of anyone on the team. Fournier will have plenty of chances to hit value tonight.
Rodney Hood ($5,500): Whenever a pure shooter like Hood is given the type of extra minutes that he is getting with Rubio out, he is worth a dart throw in a GPP tournament. Especially when his price is reasonable as Hood’s is. Mitchell is more of a constant since he took over most of the passing duties, but once Hood just stuck to shooting, his night dramatically improved. The Jazz should have more of an idea how they want to run things tonight. That could really help their production.
Dark Horses:
Marcus Morris ($4,800): Morris has carved out a solid role in Boston, which gives him a decent floor. He has also shown the ability to do more when asked, so there is a bit of upside to him as well. His price is pretty low for Morris can do, but he has a surprising number of average games. He has only had one game where he was well over value. The good part is that it was during the last week and Atlanta is a weak team.
Wesley Johnson ($3,700): Johnson had a monster game against the Cavs last night. As in 12.7x value monster. And it wasn’t just because the game went into overtime. Johnson was dominating even before that. Tonight he gets a Charlotte team that was worked over by Justin Holiday last night. I like Johnson a lot so long is Gallinari is out, as it looks like he will be.
Terrence Ross ($3,700): The Jazz are beat up on the perimeter with Rubio likely out again and Sefalosha questionable. Ross still sees close to starter’s minutes and is a good outside shooter. It looks like there is going to be plenty of stuff open on the perimeter here, so Ross is an intriguing punt play.
My pick: Durant(SF), Johnson(F); Antetokounmpo(SF), Johnson(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bet:
Blake Griffin ($8,900): Griffin worked over the Cavs pretty good last night, putting up nearly 6x value despite a quiet extra period. Charlotte is built much like Cleveland up front, as in they don’t have anyone that can really bang around with Blake. Griffin could have a similarly strong night tonight.
Draymond Green ($7,600): Statistically, the Sixers are in the top five in fantasy points allowed to power forwards. I do believe that to be true against traditional power forwards, but Draymond is not your traditional power forward. He torched the Sixers for 48.5 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes. As usual, most of his damage came from everything but points. Is Green going to block five shots and put up another double-double? Probably not, but 5x value is likely, and more is very possible.
Honorable Mention:
Derrick Favors ($6,200): Favors is getting a nice run at center with Rudy Gobert out, and the Magic are weaker at center than power forward. Favors is a bit undersized for a center, but his athleticism is what has been carrying him to big games lately. He struggled a little with the undersized Nets last night, but that wont be an issue tonight.
Jayson Tatum ($6,100): Tatum struggled with the Warriors in what should have been a good matchup, but we can’t really hold that against the rookie. It is the Warriors, after all. Tonight he gets a much more favorable matchup against a beat up Atlanta frontcourt that finally got Ilyasova back, but could be without Babbitt. Honestly, it doesn’t really matter. From a talent standpoint, Tatum has the ability to dominate them all.
Dark Horses:
Dario Saric ($4,500): Saric did well against the Warriors in the first game against them. He put up 26.75 DraftKings points in only 27 minutes. Saric is far from the most consistent guy, but his skill set fits well against Golden State. Saric is a solid punt play tonight.
Ryan Anderson ($4,400): Anderson has struggled against just about everyone but Memphis this year. In three games, Anderson has averaged 26.3 DraftKings points per game on Memphis. Unfortunately for Anderson, this is already Houston’s last meeting with Memphis for the season. He should make it count!
My pick: Saric(PF); Green(PF), Anderson(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bets:
Al Horford ($7,400): It’s a rough night up front for the big men. Joel Embiid, fresh off dropping 90, had just 24.25 DraftKings points in his first game against the Warriors. Marc Gasol has played Houston three times. He has less than 100 DraftKings points combined in those games. Further down the ladder we find Al, who roughed up his former team for 44.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. This is a night to pay down at center.
Nikola Vucevic ($6,800): GPP’s are all about wild cards, right? Finding value when injuries hit is a big part. The other part of that is targeting players that are going against an injured player. Vucevic gets to attack a Jazz middle without Gobert. Favors is a solid player, but he is no Gobert. Vucevic has fallen on tough times lately, but this could be what he needs to get back on track.
Honorable Mention:
DeAndre Jordan ($6,600): Jordan is a double-double machine with the exception of his ugly game against Philadelphia. Tonight he tangles with a traditional center in Dwight Howard. Neither are really scorers anymore, and Jordan does have a rebounding advantage here. He shouldn’t big highly owned tonight, but Jordan could have a surprisingly good game.
Dewayne Dedmon ($5,200): The Celtics are supposed to be tough up front, but Dedmon shredded them for 42 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Dedmon hasn’t been all that consistent, but he has tremendous upside as we saw in his game against the Kings on Wednesday. If he can get anywhere close to that kind of output against Boston again, Dedmon is a great bargain.
Dark Horses:
John Henson ($4,800): Supposedly, the Bucks are still high on Thon Maker, but it is Henson who is seeing most of the minutes vacated by Greg Monroe. Henson has held he ground for 6x value or better against Marc Gasol and Andre Drummond over his last two games. There are few bargains this consistently good around right now.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,200): Cauley-Stein abused the Blazers on the interior last night. With them moving the series north to Portland, there is a good chance that he can do it again. I mean, they only have one night to figure out how to keep him from methodically dismantling their young power forwards with Al-Farouq Aminu out.
My pick: Dedmon(C), Henson(UTIL); Cauley-Stein(C)
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