NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 11 Top Picks and Plays:
Hopefully you made it out alive from last week’s awful slate of games. While it should be a bit better this week, the quarterbacks in play could throw a wrench into things. This week I’ll be looking to uncover underpriced value plays, exploitable matchups, changes in workload, and my hot takes.
Top Projected Team Totals (as of 11/17): New England – 31, New Orleans – 29.25, Kansas City – 28, Philadelphia – 26, Seattle – 24, and Oakland – 24
Underpriced Values:
Rex Burkhead – NE (RB) – DK
With Rex Burkhead now healthy, he’ll finally be a viable option. Especially with New England having the highest total on the slate. It’s always difficult to predict the a Bill Belichick back field, but Burkhead is simply too cheap on DraftKings at only $3600.
Bruce Ellington – HOU (WR) – DK
Houston will play host to the Arizona Cardinals, in a game in which De’Andre Hopkins will be shadowed by corner back Patrick Peterson. Peterson is one of the best cover corners in the game and Houston will be aware of this. With Will Fuller out, Bruce Ellington now steps in as the team’s number two receiver. Earlier this week Bill O’Brien came out saying that they want to get Ellington the ball more, and this week would be the perfect time.
Sterling Shepard – NYG (WR) – FD
Sterling Shepard balled out last week, with 11 catches on 13 targets for 142 yards. The Giants simply have no one else to throw to, so Shepard and Engram will absorb a huge market share of the team’s targets. Hopefully New York will line Shepard up away from Peters, who doesn’t travel. Kansas City as been abused by opposing number one receivers thus far. Note, it will be important monitor the weather, as forecasts call for a windy day in New York.
Exploitable Matchups:
Mike Evans vs. Xavien Howard
Mike Evans will return from last week’s suspension to face the 31st rank pass DVOA defense. After a lack luster game against the Jets, I would assume that this matchup is not catching the eye of the average fan. While the Bucs offense was atrocious, this is an even better matchup, and Fitzpatrick will get Mike Evans back. Evans will be lined up opposite of Xavien Howard. Howard has a PFF grade of 35.7. A fresh Mike Evans should hopefully be able to feast in this spot.
Changes in Workload:
Samaje Perine – WAS (RB)
The Skins have sent running back Rob Kelly to the IR, thus giving rookie Samaje Perine another opportunity to carry the workload. Perine wasn’t able to get much going when he was leaned on earlier in the season, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise for a rookie running back. The Oklahoma product will serve as the early down back, as well as the goal line running back. Washington’s running game will have a favorable matchup as they face the 25th run DVOA defense. The Saints defense has been stellar through the air, but has been susceptible on the ground.
Rex Burkhead – NE (RB)
With Gillislee scratched and Burkhead now healthy, he was finally able to work his way into the game plan. New England has always relied on dual threat running backs, and Burkhead is just that. Last week, he caught three balls for 27 yards and a touchdown. He’ll face the Oakland defense who ranks 21st in receiving efficiency against opposing backs. The caution here lies in the Patriots game plan. It’s extremely difficult to predict Belichick’s game plan, but with Hogan out, Amendola not fully healthy, and Gillislee possibly scratched again, Burkhead is worth considering.
Hot Takes:
New England and Oakland score over 65 combined points
This one isn’t rocket science. New England has the 30th ranked DVOA defense, and Oakland has the 32nd rank DVOA defense. Belichick will have a well designed plan to carve this Oakland defense up, and on the other side of the ball, this is a desperation spot for Oakland, whose passing game will be a tough test for New England’s secondary. It’s also important to note the altitude and field conditions for this game. Oakland will benefit from the experience of playing here last year, while New England will benefit from staying at elevation for the past two weeks (After their game in Denver they stayed to practice at the Air Force Academy, which is near the same elevation as Mexico City).
If you watched last year’s game in Mexico City, you’ll remember that defensive players had trouble with their footing on the field, as well as their endurance late in the game. Expect master mind Belichick to be constantly subbing in and out, offensive players. Think about it, how often are DB’s subbing in and out? Not often. How often does the offense change personal? Well it depends. Now imagine for a second I have Brandin Cooks run a go route and player “A” has to cover him all the way down the field, and now for the next play, I have Danny Amendola, who isn’t winded from running downfield, face player “A” for another go route. Obviously teams employ this strategy all the time, but it should become an even greater edge for the offenses here in Mexico City.
Next: NFL DraftKings Picks Week 11
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