DraftKings Main NBA picks November 19: KD or Curry?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main NBA picks November 19: KD or Curry?
The main slate on DraftKings is a small one today as well. We have four later games in the association, and a little more star power than in the early tournament. Where can we win some money?
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The money line was up a bit to 254.75. I placed one lineup. None of the value panned out in the other one.
The winning lineup was actually down a couple of points to 344.25. He got nice value from Cauley-Stein and Saric, plus huge value from Wesley Matthews at 5% ownership. He also gambled and won with Ben Simmons.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Stephen Curry ($9,300): Curry shook off a poor game against Boston by dumping a team high 35 on the Sixers last night. Curry is capable of doing this on any given night, and even when he is off, Curry still hits somewhere in the 30’s for DraftKings points. He is a strong option to anchor your team tonight.
Lonzo Ball ($7,000): Ball continues to fill the stat sheet everywhere but in points. He has never really been much of a scorer, but as we saw last weekend, Ball is capable of monster nights. His upside is enormous, making him a strong GPP play nearly every time he takes the court.
Honorable Mention:
Jeff Teague ($6,700): Teague has at least 25 DraftKings points in 11 of the last 12 games. More often than not, Teague finds himself a shade over 5x value. He is capable of strong games, but he lacks the high ceiling of the upper tier players.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,000): With D’Angelo Russell out for the foreseeable future, Dinwiddie becomes a starter at a pretty reasonable price. The Warriors have allowed the second fewest points to point guards this year, but Dinwiddie piled up 86 DraftKings points over the last two games against Utah and Boston, both of whom are tough on the outside. I trust him at this price no matter who the opponent is.
Dark Horses:
Kris Dunn ($5,300): Dunn is not quite the starting point guard yet, but he still plays around 30 minutes a game. Dunn had a huge night against Charlotte on Friday, and could put up equally huge numbers against the Suns. This is going to be a high scoring game. Dunn will be well worth his price!
Jamal Murray ($5,200): The Nuggets have finally figured out that Murray can shoot. Murray has over 30 points in two of the last three games. With a weak Lakers perimeter defense on tap, look for Murray to put up some pretty big numbers again.
Tyler Ulis/Mike James ($4,300): James starts, Ulis has more upside. It’s the same as it has been since Bledsoe was benched. James is a more solid option, but he doesn’t have near the upside of Ulis.
My picks: Dinwiddie(PG), Dunn(G), Murray(UTIL)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($7,500): Butler has at least 40 DraftKings points games in three of the last four games after only hitting that mark once all season prior to this run. The Timberwolves are learning how to use all of their weapons at once. The only team to hold Bulter under 40 in that span was the Spurs. He is a strong candidate to do it again against Detroit.
Justin Holiday ($6,400): Holiday shined against Charlotte in his return to the court on Friday. His reward is a matchup against the NBA’s version of a run and shoot offense. Holiday should see plenty of open looks. He has become the chief scorer for the Bulls, and seems to be doing pretty well in that role.
Honorable Mention:
Avery Bradley ($6,100): Bradley put up 33 DraftKings points in the first tilt with the Timberwolves this season. He was a pesky defender and great shooter in Boston last year. His consistency mus still be stuck on the plane. Bradley shows flashes of his Boston self, but not enough to count on every time he takes the court. Tonight I will make an exception though.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,500): I finally recommended a Denver guard on Friday, and Will Barton was a total bust. Clarkson has a far more defined role for the Lakers, and he has done well in it. Those Denver boys have a higher upside against Clarkson’s Lakers, but good luck picking which one goes off. Clarkson is far more consistent and has decent upside.
Dark Horses:
Denzel Valentine ($4,700): Valentine has carved out a healthy share of minutes for the Bulls lately. Valentine has decent upside because he is a good shooters. He was a solid all around player at Michigan State, and has shown flashes of that in the NBA. If he starts doing that consistently, Valentine will be a good value play every night. Just like he is tonight against Phoenix.
Joe Harris ($3,600): With Russell out, Harris has been getting a little more run off the bench. He has little upside, but Harris has topped 6x value in three of four games without Russell. If you find yourself needing to go really cheap, Harris is a solid option.
My pick: Holiday(SG), Valentine(F)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($10,200): Ho hum, just another 50 DraftKings point game for KD. Durant continues to be one of the most consistent options in the high price range. He wont throw up a 80 or 90 DraftKings point game liek LeBron or Harden, but Durant has only been under 40 once this season. That is almost as important as those monster games.
T.J. Warren ($6,600): Warren is a big time shooter just like Devin Booker. Booker could have some issues with the Bulls on the outside.They have actually been solid against off guards. That would leave plenty of slack for Warren, who has put up some big games so for this year. With the Bulls in the bottom ten against small forwards, I like this matchup.
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Wiggins ($6,500): We kind of figured that when Butler finally got going it would come at the expense of Wiggins. However, Wiggins’ price has been adjusted accordingly, and he is still hitting 5x value on a regular basis. He doesn’t have huge upside anymore, but Wiggins has a lot of talent at a little price. You never know what could happen.
Tobias Harris ($6,300): There are so many options in a similar range at this position that this could be where most of the separation happens. Harris doesn’t look like that great of an option when compared to the rest, but he torched the Wolves for 49 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Just food for thought.
Dark Horses:
DeMarre Carroll ($5,500): Carroll lacks significant upside, but he is one of the more consistent producers at this price. He is starting for the Nets, so his minutes are a sure thing. Carroll is usually not one of the best options in his price range, but on a short slate, he stands out as a solid value play.
Josh Jackson ($3,500): Jackson has very high upside, but the Suns are bringing him along slowly. He has only played more than 20 minutes twice this month. Despite that, Jackson has shown the ability to hit value fairly often. You don’t really know for sure what you are getting with Jackson, but he can put points up in a hurry from time to time.
My pick: Warren(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($7,800): Green is one of the best all around players in the league, even if his offensive game remains mostly unpolished. He is willing to do the things that most others don’t. Green puts up numbers in every category, which makes him a low risk option. His lack of scoring presence is the only thing keeping him from the elite tier.
Paul Millsap ($7,200): Millsap has turned in a few horrible games this year. Not just below average. Horrible. That is the risk you take with Millsap. However, he has topped 40 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. He gets a weak Lakers frontcourt tonight, so if you are ever going to trust MIllsap, the matchup doesn’t get much more favorable than this.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Kuzma ($6,900): At the rate Kuzma is going, Larry Nance wont have a job to return to. The rookie is averaging 37 DraftKings points per game over the last four. Denver isn’t all that strong up front either. Kuzma is reasonably priced, and has huge upside.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,400): The Suns are statistically weak against power forwards, but not all of them. Big, plodding forwards often have trouble with the speed of the Suns. A shooter like Markkanen will fit right into the flow of the game. Expect him to see a larger share of the minutes, at least for this game.
Dark Horses:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,100): Hollis-Jefferson has a more polished offensive game this year, which gives him a more solid floor. He is athletic enough to run with the Warriors. Just be aware that he could be in for courtside seats late in the game if this turns into a blowout. That reduces his upside some.
Greg Monroe ($4,700): Just a day after exploding in his Suns debut, Monroe played just 16 minutes in an awful game against the Lakers. I’m not reading too much into it yet since it was the second of a back to back, but this could be a disturbing trend. The Bulls do have a more traditional center in Robin Lopez, so Monroe should see decent run even if Chandler is a go.
My pick: Kuzma(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600): Towns had a truly awful game against Dallas on Friday, but he has played so much better at home that I am willing to overlook that. Towns had a solid 40.5 DraftKings points in Detroit the first time they played. Considering that Towns is averaging nine more DraftKings points per game at home, he should be right around 5x value tonight.
Nikola Jokic ($9,200): Jokic remains one of the higher upside guys around, but he puts up more clunkers than most players at his price. Towns is more of a constant tonight. Jokic is the high upside GPP play.
Honorable Mention:
Andre Drummond ($8,900): Towns is not a great defender, but Drummond isn’t enough of an offensive force to take full advantage of that. However, Drummond still picked up 44.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting between these two. That would put him right at 5x value.
Dark Horse:
Zaza Pachulia ($3,100): Playing a Golden State center is a massive risk considering they routinely play at least three at the position, and that doesn’t even count Draymond. That said, Pachulia starts and plays more minutes than the rest of them. Don’t get too excited. He still doesn’t see over 20. However, if you really need a cheap punt, Pachulia is almost always neawr 5x value.
My pick: Drummond(C)
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