DraftKings NBA picks November 20: Is Davis a value play under $10K?

We have seven NBA games in our DraftKings tournaments, which puts about half the league in action. With the NBA season in full swing, we have seen some injuries already that have altered the course of DFS. Where can we find our bargains tonight? Let’s do some digging!

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($9,200): If Simmons can put up 54 on Golden State, he can do it to anyone. Even the mighty Utah Jazz. Simmons picked up 51.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Utah, and they even had a healthy Rubio in that game. Rubio played just 16 minutes on Saturday, so I tend to think he may still be feeling soreness in the Achilles. At any rate, Simmons is a top option once again.

Kyrie Irving ($8,500): Irving looked great on Saturday against Atlanta, hitting 10 of his 12 shots from the floor. Irving still has nice upside because of the number of shots he is taking with Hayward out. Those 12 shots were his fewest of the season. If he is hitting jumpers again, Irving could wind up being a steal at this price.

Honorable Mention:

Kemba Walker ($7,900): Walker has put up some big totals lately. Even with Batum back, he is still leading the team in shots and scoring. The last time Walker was under 20 points was on November 5th against Minnesota. The Hornets are playing Minnesota again, but I tend to think Walker will be better than 4-15 from the floor. He is a nice middle tier option tonight due to Minnesota’s struggles with point guards.

Reggie Jackson ($6,200): His awful game against the Bucks last week left a sour taste for many of us DFS players. Jackson has a chance to earn back that trust here against Cleveland. The Cavs have not defended the point well, even with Shumpert manning it more. Jackson’s calling card a a shooter makes him an even better play against Cleveland. He isn’t going to drop 50 DraftKings points, but 40 is possible.

Darren Collison ($6,100): Collison has three straight games with 5x value or more. He gets another softer perimeter defense in Orlando tonight. Collison presents a pretty low risk option tonight at a reasonable price.

Dark Horses:

Mario Chalmers ($4,700): Chalmers will be running the Grizzlies offense for at least a couple of weeks since Conley is nursing a sore Achilles. He is elevated to a must play if Tyreke Evans is out with his sore shoulder. If Evans plays, he is obviously the better play, but even then, Chalmers is a solid value play at this price.

George Hill ($4,100): Rookie De’Aaron Fox is cutting into Hill’s playing time, but the veteran has still picked up at least 5x value in four straight games. Fox has a lot more upside, making him for favorable in GPP formats, but Hill has a pretty good floor. There is value to be had in Kings players. If I had to choose one for tonight, I would go with Fox since he had a better game against Denver the first time around.

Tim Frazier ($3,400): Frazier was impressive starting for John Wall yesterday picking up eight boards and eight assists to go with his six points. If Wall is out again, Frazier will be in every one of my lineups for this insanely low price.

My picks: Walker(PG), Frazier(G); Simmons(PG), Chalmers(G), Frazier(UTIL)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

Victor Oladipo ($7,600): I find it hard to go with anyone against the Bucks right now. Yes, even Beal with Wall out. Oladipo is on a tear lately, and gets a revenge game back in Orlando. I would rather go with Oladipo for $400 cheaper than Beal tonight. Not that Beal will have a bad game, I just don’t see him getting 40 DraftKings points against the Bucks right now.

Jimmy Butler ($7,500): Butler had another big game last night, marking his fourth 40+ DraftKings point effort in his last five games. The Hornets have been torched from the perimeter all season. They are marginally better with Batum back, but I am more inclined to ride the hot shooting of Butler lately.

Honorable Mention:

C.J. McCollum ($6,900): McCollum lit up the Grizzlies in the first meeting with Lillard being locked down by Conley. Lillard will have an easier go of it tonight against Chalmers, but McCollum still enjoys the path of least resistance on the perimeter. Chalmers is a pretty good defender in his own right. I would rather save the money and roll McCollum then get about the same production for a higher price in Lillard.

Jaylen Brown (6,600): I have been a huge Hardaway supporter all year, but he has a sore foot and is taking on a Clippers D that defends the wings well. Brown has at least 25 DraftKings points in all but one game this month. He likely wont light up Dallas, but I think he is more likely to reach value than Hardaway tonight and carries less risk since he is on two good feet.

Avery Bradley ($6,000): Bradley’s scoring is up in Detroit this year. Now he gets a Cavs team that can’t defend the wing at all. There is a chance that the Cavs put LeBron on Bradley, but I tend to think they wont. They will save the King for more kingly things like offense. Bradley could be in for a big night tonight. Hell, he even dropped 28 on the Bucks last week!

Dark Horses:

Rodney Hood ($5,600): All of you seasoned DFS players know the dangers of playing Hood. He has tremendous ability, but is the model of inconsistency. He has been a little better about that this year, but we will see how it turns out. Hood picked up 28 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Philadelphia, and he has looked really good since being returned to the starting lineup. I’m liking Hood at this price tonight.

Will Barton ($5,500), Jamal Murray ($5,400), Gary Harris ($5,300): Here is the DFS version of Russian Roulette. Three Denver guards. All have had good games in the past week. Good luck figuring out who it will be tonight. Pick a guard, any guard!

Kent Bazemore ($4,900): Bazemore has not been all that consistent this year, and, well, most DFS players just don’t gamble against the Spurs. However, the Spurs are in the bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards. The groundwork is laid for a nice game from Bazemore. However, trusting any Hawk can be difficult.

My pick: Bazemore(SG); Butler(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500): I will start this by saying I don’t think Giannis hits 5x value at this price against the Wizards. However, his numbers this year are staggering, and he has really only had one “bad” game (if you can consider 43.5 DraftKings points bad). His usage rate is unsustainable, but so long as he keeps doing what he’s doing, he is worth a look any time he takes the court.

LeBron James ($11,300): The King has racked up 183.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. Tonight, he will have the formidable Stanley Johnson guarding him. Good luck with that one! And this is where i recommend fading Giannis for LeBron.

Honorable Mention:

Paul George ($8,700): George had a miserable night against the Bulls on Wednesday, but has since picked the production back up. He is capable of monster games. Just look at last weekend. George’s scoring has dropped lately, but that is mostly due to his 9-31 mark from the field over the last two games. George is still getting a high volume of shots, and does enough to still hit value even if his shot isn’t falling.

Andrew Wiggins ($6,500): Butler and Wiggins have both topped 20 points in the same game twice in the last eight days. They are learning to exist together and both still have big games. Butler will still have the bigger ones, but Wiggins is a solid value at this price. He still has ample upside against a Charlotte team that is terrible on the wings.

Robert Covington ($6,100): Covington had 34.5 DraftKings points in his first game against the Jazz in just 28 minutes. He continues to be a jack of any trade that Philadelphia needs at the time. Covington is not as lauded as the young studs on this team, but he is essential to their success. That makes him a great play in DFS most nights.

Dark Horses:

Joe Ingles ($5,200): Ingles had 28.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Philadelphia. Ingles is solid across the board, but lacks that coveted upside since he is not a big part of the offense. I like Ingles more in cash games, but if you find yourself on a budget filling out a GPP lineup, you can do worse for this price.

Kyle Anderson/Danny Green ($4,500): This is the Spurs version of the Denver backcourt with one major difference: the Spurs play everyone evenly no matter how they are performing. Anderson has the higher upside, but they are both strong value plays against the Hawks. Green was lights out on Saturday. Both will get plenty of run with Kawhi still out. If pressed I would play Anderson because of the upside, but I don’t think you go wrong with either tonight.

Wesley Johnson ($3,900): There is no timetable for Gallinari’s return yet, so Johnson should continue to play heavy minutes for the Clippers. He isn’t much of a scorer, but his defense makes him a steal at this price point. Johnson is a strong punt play for the duration of Gallinari’s absence.

My pick: James(SF), Johnson(F), Green (UTIL); Covington(SF)

Power Forwards

Best Bet:

Anthony Davis ($9,800): Davis played just 24 minutes against the Nuggets on Friday after leaving with a concussion. He has passed concussion protocol and is probable for tonight against the Thunder. Davis has the size to dominate against the Thunder, and could wind up being one of the better bargains around tonight. He is worth playing if he starts and is not on a minutes restriction.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,200): About the only advantage the Hawks have here is that the Hawks are so weak everywhere else that Aldridge may not have to beat them. This game has high blowout potential. If that happens, they will likely rest the veterans like Aldridge as much as possible. However, if this gets out of hand, LMA will probably be a big reason why.

Honorable Mention:

Kevin Love ($7,400): Love is such a good shooter that having him at this price is very intriguing. If he logs most of his minutes at center, he will wear Drummond out. I would tend to think that Detroit would try to keep Harris on Love instead, but it may not matter. No matter how you look at this, Love is a problem for Detroit.

Carmelo Anthony ($6,900): I like Melo a lot more if Brow sits, but even if he is in there, Anthony is a good enough shooter to still get value by points alone. This is especially true if George struggles again. Anthony is a great play if A.D. takes a turn for the worse this afternoon, but he is still a solid play regardless.

Domantas Sabonis ($5,900): Sabonis has taken a huge fantasy hit with the return of Turner, but we know he has the upside, and he has proven to have a decent floor as well. He is a low risk value play at this price.

Dark Horses:

Dario Saric ($4,700): Saric abused the Jazz to the tune of 42.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I tend to think that he wont really do that again since Embiid rested in the first meeting, but Saric matches up better than Embiid does against Utah. That makes Saric a high upside value play even though he doesn’t start.

JaMychal Green ($4,500): Green should be in line for another modest increase in minutes as he works his way back from an ankle sprain. The Blazers were torn up on the inside by Willie Cauley-Stein over the weekend. It seems pretty likely that Green can do the same tonight if given the minutes.

Dirk Nowitzki ($4,100): Dirk doesn’t have near the upside that he used to have, but he has been producing solid 5.5x value lately. Boston is not all that strong on the inside, and Nowitzki has proven to still be very efficient for his 25-28 minutes per game. There is little upside here, but Nowitzki is a strong cash game play.

My pick: Davis(PF), Nowitzki(C); Love(PF); Nowitzki(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900): If Davis sits, Cousins is a must-play. Boogie is still a strong option even if Davis is in there. The towers were both shut down by Denver, but the Thunder can’t handle these loads on the inside. Adams is tenacious, but Cousins can take over a game.

Nikola Jokic ($9,100): Jokic was a non-factor in the first meeting with the Kings. For some strange reason he took just three shots the entire game! Denver has been putting up huge scores lately, and Jokic has become a big part of that. Denver is going to lean on Jokic here against a discombobulated Kings interior.

Honorable Mention:

Andre Drummond ($8,800): Drummond’s elite rebounding ability means that he is always a solid DFS play. He is averaging 21 DraftKings points a game in rebounds alone! Drummond doesn’t have a great matchup with Love tonight, but he should still be able to haul in in the high teens in rebounds.

Al Horford ($7,600): Dallas is weak on the interior, and they wont really match up well with a multi purpose center such as Horford either. Since Horford isn’t a traditional center, he does rely on scoring a little more than most others, but Dallas specializes on giving up interior points. This has the look of a strong matchup for Horford.

Nikola Vucevic ($7,100): It would take a leap of faith to use Vucevic right now. He has not hit 5x value in nearly two weeks. However, the Pacers have allowed the most fantasy points to centers this season. If Vucevic is going to get back on track, this would seem to be the game to do it.

Dark Horses:

Derrick Favors ($6,400): Favors has been a solid fill in for Rudy Gobert, and I tend to think this will be a positive for the Jazz since they will know what they have in Favors by the time Gobert returns. Philadelphia is really good on the interior, but Favors’ price is low enough that he has a puncher’s chance at value regardless.

Steven Adams ($5,700): Adams had a good game against the Spurs in his return to the lineup. Perhaps the most intriguing thing was the 34 minutes that Adams logged in that game. He will be banging around with Boogie all night so most will fade Adams, but he is still involved enough in the offense to be a sneaky value play, albeit with significant risk.

Marcin Gortat ($5,300): The Bucks were getting owned in the paint even before they dealt Monroe. Now, Gortat is not a highly skilled offensive player or a real bruiser, but he is a fundamentally sound big man that has the potential for a pretty good night.

My pick: N/A; Horford(C)

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