Northwestern’s run at a second NCAA Tournament is off to a rough start.
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
One season removed from making the first NCAA Tournament in school history, the Northwestern Wildcats were meant to be a program on the rise, entering the 2017-18 season as a consensus top-25 squad set to bounce back after coming up just short of making the second weekend last March.
Sure, there were destined to be some obstacles. Their home court, Welsh-Ryan Arena, is under construction meaning the Wildcats are playing home games at Allstate Arena nearly an hour away from campus. There’s also the proverbial target on the back now that beating Northwestern isn’t just an expectation, but an opportunity. Still, those were expected to be mere road bumps for a team returning basically every important offensive weapon and nearly all of its valuable defensive pieces.
But here we are just 10 days into the season trying to figure out what the heck is wrong with Northwestern after a pair of losses in three games last week. The Wildcats stumbled at home against Creighton mid-week before getting pummeled by Texas Tech on Sunday in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off final. The 36-point loss suffered at the hands of the Red Raiders is the worst for a Northwestern team since at least 2010-11.
Were we all wrong about the Wildcats? Were they really just an overrated facade or is something else going on here? The answer is likely a little bit of both with the worries mostly lying on the defensive end.
Northwestern’s offense is averaging just 1.6 points per 100 possessions less than it did last season and when accounting for the quality of defenses it’s played so far, the offense might actually be a bit better than last season. Scottie Lindsey’s shooting over 40.0 percent from 3-point range, Bryant McIntosh is averaging a career high 16.6 points per game and once Vic Law finds his jumper, the offense could even improve.
Defensively, though, nearly everything’s gone wrong. The Wildcats’ raw defensive efficiency is 12.0 points per 100 possessions worse this season. That’s basically the difference between ranking in the top third of teams in Division I and the bottom third.
Given Northwestern’s defense isn’t designed to create turnovers, its shot defense is of the utmost importance. The Wildcats currently rank 290th nationally in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom, which is 269 spots worse than they finished last season. Most notably, in 2016-17, Northwestern had the nation’s 16th best 2-point defense, allowing opponents to connect on just 44.0 percent of shots inside the arc, per KenPom. This season? Opponents are making 53.0 percent of their 2s through five games. That’s worrisome because it’s the shooting number defenses have the most control over.
Opponents are simply taking and making more shots closer to the basket against the Wildcats. Opposing teams have attempted 38.7 percent of their total field goal attempts at the rim in 2017-18, up from 34.0 percent in 2016-17, per Hoop-Math. They’re also connecting on 60.9 percent of those shots. Presumably opponents won’t continue to make over 75.0 percent of their unblocked attempts at the rim, but it’s certainly concerning Northwestern has so far been unable to limit easy shots for its opponents despite returning both Dererk Pardon and Gavin Skelly inside.
The outlook isn’t all doom and gloom for Northwestern, though. The Wildcats have also fallen victim to some bad luck. Their opponents are shooting 41.4 percent from behind the arc this season after connecting on just 33.3 percent of their 3s last season. In general, defenses don’t have much control over opponent 3-point percentage, so a slight uptick was expected here, but a deeper dive into the numbers suggests opponents should shoot worse from deep as the season rolls on.
For starters, Northwestern’s opponents are attempting virtually the exact same percentage (34.9) of their shots from behind the arc as last season (34.5), meaning the Wildcats aren’t slipping up in terms of giving up good shots worth an extra point. In fact, Northwestern’s actually likely contesting 3-pointers at a higher rate. Synergy tracks catch-and-shoot attempts on a guarded and unguarded basis and although the site doesn’t differentiate between 2s and 3s, most catch-and-shoot attempts happen behind the arc.
So far this season, the Wildcats have contested 87.3 percent of opponents’ catch-and-shoot chances, up from 66.5 percent last season. However, opponents are averaging 1.312 points per possession (PPP) on those attempts, putting Northwestern in the 8th percentile nationally in terms of guarded catch-and-shoot defense. Given the national average on guarded catch-and-shoots this season is 0.972 PPP, it’s reasonable to assume the Wildcats’ defense will improve as opponents’ hot shooting starts to regress.
Next: College basketball's week 2 takeaways
Ultimately, the verdict on Northwestern is decidedly more nuanced than generic overrated claims. The Wildcats do have some real problems. The easiest way to win basketball games is to take away your opponent’s easy shots and make your own. So far, Northwestern is failing wildly at the first part. However, the Wildcats have also been on the wrong end of some impressive shooting performances. As opponents’ shooting starts to presumably normalize, Northwestern should start to rack up more Ws. The Wildcats may not be quite as good as we though they were, but they’re also likely not as bad as they showed against Texas Tech on Sunday.