This Week in Stats: Arsenal earn their luck in a deserved win

Arsenal rode their luck but deserved to win, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah continues to thrive and West Ham need to start finishing chances fast.

Tottenham will feel hard done by after losing to their north London neighbors at the Emirates on Saturday. The visitors could make a case that both Arsenal goals should’ve been ruled out. The Gunners were caught offside eight times, the most flags they’ve seen in a league match since April; Spurs will argue there should’ve been two more.

Yet there was no question that Arsenal deserved to win. A tied shot count of 14 apiece is one thing; an expected goals tally of 2.2 to 0.6 is quite another.

In fact, Alexis Sanchez alone had chances worth 1.6 expected goals. Prior to this north London squabble, the Chilean had missed all three of his Opta-defined clear-cut chances in the league this season.

He also had three in the course of this match; he may have missed two, but by scoring one he put daylight between the teams. That was after Shkodran Mustafi had headed the home side in front.

Despite their reputation as purists, Arsenal have scored 24 headers since August 2016, which is the most in the Premier League.

As for Spurs, on the FiveThirtyEight xG model, it was their worst attacking performance on the road since their visit to West Ham last season. Harry Kane was reasonably involved, with nine touches in the Arsenal box, but he was clearly not fit. When Mauricio Pochettino withdrew both Kane and Alli with 15 minutes to play, the towel was thrown in.

That West Ham result ended Tottenham’s title challenge last term, and while City look to be on a different level this season, this result looks likely to have terminated Spurs’ hopes for another year.

Mohamed Salah continues to put teams to the sword

For thirty minutes on Saturday afternoon, Liverpool huffed and puffed against Southampton. The Saints were compact and comfortable, with Oriel Romeu providing an excellent shield in front of their back four.

The Reds were repeatedly forced wide, and attempted 12 crosses in the opening half hour. For context, they average 20 per match, and this in turn lead Southampton to make 17 clearances when they usually make 23 a game. The visitors were under the cosh, but in a way that suited them.

Mohamed Salah is in the form of his life right now, though, and after Dusan Tadic made a ghastly mistake on the edge of his own box, the Egyptian gave Liverpool the lead. On average, a shot from that position in a similar situation is only scored once in every 50 attempts. Salah is laughing in the face of such odds at the moment.

Ten minutes later he had a second. Southampton hadn’t yet opened up in an attempt to get back in the game, but Philippe Coutinho doesn’t need asking twice to play a delicious pass. It was the only through ball of the game, but when Virgil van Dijk went walkabout, Salah ran across the line and finished the chance superbly.

Things are looking pretty bleak for Southampton right now. They had fewer than seven shots away from home for the third time this season. Only Burnley and Swansea have done so more times, and then both only by one.

On expected goals, they’ve been out-shot by at least one in every match on the road this season. What they wouldn’t give for an attacker with the verve and ability of Mohamed Salah right now.

West Ham aren’t a lost cause but need to start finishing chances

David Moyes took charge of West Ham for the first time, and they were beaten 2-0 at Watford. This may prove to be a meeting of Everton managers past and future, if the Toffees’ board get their way.

Marco Silva prevailed here, but it wasn’t all bad from a Hammers perspective. Their underlying numbers should offer some hope for the future.

Moyes’ boys had three clear-cut chances for the first time away from home this season. There was some variety in their play too, as they were created via a cross, a through-ball and a pull back in the area.

They didn’t concede any clear-cut chances themselves, and logged more expected goals than their opponents for the first time on the road in 2017-18. West Ham may be in the bottom three, but survival shouldn’t be impossible based on their performance here.

Next: Arsenal stun Tottenham: 3 things we learned

The Irons’ main problem has been finishing their best chances. They missed a clear-cut chance at 0-0 against Liverpool last time out, and all three at Watford came between the 42nd and 52nd minute while it was 1-0.

One new problem may be David Moyes’ recent career record. This was his 38th defeat in the Premier League since leaving Everton. A full season of defeats in under two seasons worth of matches, in other words. He simply hasn’t had much recent experience of managing teams who do well.

With Leicester, Everton, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal up next, it could be a while before Moyes turns West Ham round (if he can at all). They have at least showed some signs of life recently. Putting their chances away could make all the difference.