FanDuel NFL Lineups: Thanksgiving Day 2017

Welcome to the Thanksgiving Day 2017 edition of FanDuel NFL lineups.  We’re a Daily Fantasy Football column focused on top picks and best value for your weekly FanDuel NFL lineups.  We arm you with information for a big FanDuel NFL payday each week.

Last week was less wacky than week ten.  We had some of the historically great FanDuel NFL players do well, like LeSean McCoy running for 114 yards, and getting a touchdown on the ground and the air for a total of 25.1 FanDuel NFL points.

Brandon Cooks and Keenan Allen each had huge games.  Allen was a target machine, again, against a Buffalo Bills defense which appears to be crumbling fast.  It’s now OK to target the Bills with the passing and running games.  Keenan logged 154 yards and two touchdowns for a monster 34.2 FanDuel NFL points.  Meanwhile, Brandin Cooks hauled in 149 receiving yards and a touchdown for 23.9 points.

Even though the Seahawks lost a close one to the Falcons at home in Seattle, Russell Wilson had a fantastic statistical game.  Wilson did have a fumble and a pick, but he through for over 250 yards, had two passing touchdowns, and rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown.  Tack on the additional two points for the two-point conversasion, and he was the top FanDuel NFL quarterback with 31.92 points.

One of our big fades of the week was Dak Prescott.  We didn’t like how the Eagles passing defense appears to be emerging throughout the season.  As the Eagles have solidified the run game, their corners are getting more aggressive.  And with the already great pass rush from the Eagles, that lead to three interceptions and a fumble from Dak on Sunday night.  In short, Prescott ended the game with negative FanDuel NFL points, a major dagger to anyone who decided to fade the Eagles defense.

Looking forward, make note of the Cowboys performance this past Sunday night.  They looked terrible on offense without Tyron Smith (OL-groin/back injury) and Ezekiel Elliott (RB-suspended) on the field.  Dak was often in trouble when in the pocket.  The one thing the Cowboys oddly did well with was running the ball through the middle of the field.  If they can’t exploit that against the Chargers, they’re a great offense to pick the Chargers defense again, and without Sean Lee on defense, the Chargers could be a great offense to stack.

This week, FanDuel NFL is providing a Thanksgiving Day only slate, focused on the three games, with six teams, playing this Thursday.  This is an exciting slate to play, and adds additional excitement to an already awesome American holiday.  For this article, we’re only focused on the Thanksgiving games.

Now, let’s get start on your NFL DFS optimal lineup with the Quarterbacks…

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Thanksgiving Day – Quarterbacks

Top Pick

There’s a lot of moaning in Washington D.C. after another tough loss for the Skins this past Sunday.  But the Skins just survived a tough gauntlet of scheduled games through mid-November.  Heading into this Thursday, Washington has the second easiest schedule in the NFL for the reminder of the season.  That starts with a terrible Giants team in Washington.

Of the six starting quarterbacks this Thanksgiving, Kirk Cousins ($8,800) has the most FanDuel NFL points-per-game, 19.89.  Over the last two games, Kirk piled over 25 points each game, including a tough match up at home against the Vikings, and another difficult task in New Orleans.  Even against a good Eagles defense in late October, Cousins was able to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns for roughly 25 points.  There may be some risk with this play.

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The Giants tinkered with their defensive starters on Sunday against the Chiefs, and for now it looks like it may have worked.  But it’s hard to tell.  The Chiefs offense has already been declining over the last three weeks, and the weather conditions for passing were horrendous with a very strong wind swirling around MetLife Stadium.  So I’d throw that performance out for now and assume the Giants defense didn’t miraculously come to life late in the season.

Other Top Option

Philip Rivers ($7,600) likely won’t get you over 20 points on Thursday, but he’ll get close.  Averaging right around 16 FanDuel NFL points-per-game, Rivers really only had a bad game against the Chiefs back in late September.  That game aside, Philip has been incredibly consistent each week, leaning somewhere around 15 points.

As long as target-machine Keenan Allen is on the field, we should continue to see results like that through the rest of the season.  This week, Rivers and the Chargers are facing a depleted Dallas Cowboys defense who struggled significantly in the second half on Sunday night.  The Chargers passing game should be able to continue to exploit the Cowboys hampered defense on Thursday afternoon, and Rivers is a solid play.

Fade

Dak Prescott ($8,900) – The Eagles defense is very good this season, but Dak’s performance on Sunday night was an example of a bigger issue.  Even if the Cowboys can get Smith back on the field, he’s likely going to be hampered by his injury.  Remember, just four days before Thanksgiving he wasn’t cleared to play.

Also, the Chargers corners, Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams are two of the most underrated DB’s in the NFL.  Hayward is currently grading out, by Pro Football Focus (PFF), as an ‘elite’ corner.  And Williams is grading just below elite, at ‘high quality.’  Add on their great safeties in passing situations, and Prescott has yet another big problem this Thursday.  For $8,900 you’re risking a lot for a potentially disastrous return.

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Thanksgiving Day – Running Backs

Top Pick

Melvin Gordon ($8,400) has been frustrating for many FanDuel NFL players this season.  Gordon was expected to be a top-five running back, if not top 15 DFS option.  But with only around 16 FanDuel NFL points-per-game, and several duds, DFS players will be inclined to fade Gordon.  But not this week!

One thing that’s often easy to overlook earlier in the season are the match ups.  Its hard to determine who the top defenses are each season.  For example, the Philadelphia Eagles run defense is significantly more dominate in 2017, than it was last season.

Related to that point, Melvin and the Chargers have seen five of the top eight rushing defenses in their first ten games.  Gordon only put up 6.7 FanDuel NFL points against the Jags two weeks ago, 4.9 points against the Broncos in late October, and 3.4 points against the Eagles back in early October.   But we just listed three top-15 run defense.

Gordon has also provided touchdowns against the Dolphins, and to start the season the Broncos, yielding over 15 FanDuel NFL points in those games.  With the better match-ups, Gordon is averaging 22.94 point-per-game, which is why we love him on Thanksgiving day.  The Cowboys are 21st defending the run game, and 20th defending points.  Also, as we saw against the Eagles last Sunday night, without Sean Lee the Cowboys are giving up even more rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns.  This week is a great time to plug Gordon in your lineup, and he should be owned in all formats on Thanksgiving day.

Other Top Options

The second most expensive running back is Samaje Perine ($7,600), and there’s a good reason for that.  It might seem lazy, but stacking Gordon with Perine in your lineup is actually a great move.  With Chris Thompson done for the season, the biggest impact to the Skins offense, Perine was asked to step up and he saw 23 carries and two passing targets last week in New Orleans.

While Samaje only averages just over 7.5 FanDuel NFL points-per-game, that average will begin to escalate as the season progresses.  Last week, a good Saints run defense gave up 117 yards on the ground to Samaje, nine yards in the air, and a rushing touchdown.  This week, the Skins play a Giants team, at home, who gives up nearly 133 rushing yards per game, third worst in the NFL, and 24.7 points per game, 21st in the NFL.  Perine is going to feast on some Giants turkey legs.

If you’re looking for a cheaper option, Jerick McKinnon ($6,200) should be your best bet.  McKinnon only has 80 rushing yards, in total, over the last two weeks.  But Jerick saw the bulk of the carries, and is also getting around five to ten passing targets per game.  This week, the Vikings face a Lions defense who has a great cornerback, but little to manage the run game.  With a touchdown, or more, McKinnon should have a great day against the Lions.

Fade

Ameer Abdullah ($6,300) – After three straight games where Abdullah snagged either a rushing or receiving touchdown, it’s tempting to play him on Thanksgiving.  However, the Lions are playing a Minnesota Vikings defense who’s second-best in the NFL defending the run game, 77.7 rushing yards per game, and fourth-best in the NFL defending points, only 17.2 points per game.  So with probably ten to fifteen touches, Ameer is only getting about 50 to 60 yards and maybe seven to eight points on a $6.3K salary.  He’s not worth it!

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Thanksgiving Day – Wide Receivers

Top Picks

Keenan Allen ($8,000) is one of our favorite fantasy football players.  Allen is a target machine, and has been hampered by injures the past two seasons.  Now clearly healthy, Allen has 92 targets already this season, for 56 receptions, 755 yards, and three touchdowns.  Keenan is currently seventh in the NFL is total receiving yards, and is averaging over 75 yards per game.

Last week, against a previously solid Buffalo Bills pass defense, Allen saw a season-high of 13 targets, had 12 receptions, for 159 yards and two touchdowns.  Keenan was one of the top FanDuel NFL players of the week.  Now in Dallas, the Cowboys are 14th in the NFL defending the pass defense, but have some injury concerns.  Like we saw against the Eagles, the Cowboys will likely give Rivers some time to through.  Also, with less pressure on the run game, the Chargers can target Allen with more comfort.

Stefon Diggs ($7,500) has taken a back seat to Thielen this season.  Diggs is clearly becoming more of a downfield threat.  Stefon is averaging just under 13 FanDuel NFL points-per-game, but he’s a boom or bust guy.  While Diggs had four receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown against the Redskins two weeks ago, he only had four receptions for 32 yards and no touchdowns against the Chargers the following week.

This week, the Vikings passing game have to match up against some great cornerbacks.  However, Diggs may be the go-to guy for Case Keenum.  In practically every set, D.J. Hayden should be covering Stefon, and of all the corners the Lions have, he’s performing the worst.  So it’s likely the Vikings are going to target Diggs more often against the Lions, including some downfield passes.  When they played Detroit earlier in the season, he saw seven targets for 98 yards, but no touchdowns.  Still, Diggs had over 12 points, and with a touchdown a big day.

Other Top Pick

At first I wanted to grab the young Josh Doctson ($6,600), who could still have a great game against a terrible Giants pass defense on Thanksgiving night.  But while Doctson has seen 14 targets over the last two weeks, Jamison Crowder ($6,300) saw 19.

Now that Pierre Garcon is no longer in Washington, Crowder appears to be the guy Cousins depends on.  It took some time to develop the rapport, but over the last three weeks, Kirk has thrown Jamison’s way nearly 11 times per game for over 90 yards per game.  With a touchdown this Thursday, Crowder is one of the top receiver picks, and looks a lot like Allen in this scenario.

While there are several great receivers left on the list, many have terrible match ups for Thursday, or are too expensive to play for their likely return.  So we found ourselves diving down the list, almost falling off a cliff.  Eventually, we continue to come back to Tavarres King ($4,800).

The Skins have some great cornerbacks on the field this week, but the’re not healthy.  And we expect Eli Manning to mostly target Evan Engram.  But, Over the last three weeks, Manning has targeted King around give times per game, for three receptions and roughly 40 yards.  Tavarres also has a touchdown this season.  Against the Redskins this week, King has another shot at hitting ten points, on a very cheap salary.

Fades

Adam Thielen ($8,300) – For the same reason we like Diggs, we don’t want Thielen in our lineups for Thanksgiving day.  The Lions have one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, Darius Slay.  In practically every match up, if not completely shadowed, Thielen is going to have Slay covering him.  Even when he may play the slot and lose Slay, Adam has to contend with Quandre Diggs, who’s currently one of the better slot corners in the NFL.  He’s one of the best receivers in the NFL so far this season, but playing Thielen this week should be a major let-down.

Dez Bryant ($7,400) – He’s the Cowboys only hope this week, but that isn’t a great situation for Bryant.  Last week, Dez was targeted 14 times against the Eagles, his second more throws to him this season.  But Bryant only had eight receptions for 63 yards, and a disappointing 10.3 FanDuel NFL points.  This week, Bryant has arguably better cornerbacks to contend with, and a quarterback who’s struggling with a hampered offensive line and no Ezekiel Elliott.

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Thanksgiving Day – Tight End / Kicker / Defense

If you can afford him, Evan Engram ($7,600) is the obvious choice at tight end this Thursday.  Engram didn’t see much against against the Chiefs, but as we discussed earlier it was likely due to the weather conditions.  In each of the four games prior to last week, Evan locked in a touchdown and 30+ yards.

While Engram has a 9.57 FanDuel NFL point average, that average is climbing weekly, minus last week.  Against the Redskins on Thursday, Engram is going to be one of Manning’s favorite targets.

If you can’t afford Engram, grab Vernon Davis ($6,400).  FanDuel smartly listed Jordan Reed ($6,400) and Davis at the same value, because it was hard to tell who would be starting.  But all indications, so far, point to Davis again.  Over the last three weeks, Vernon has seen around nine targets per game, and 60+ yards.  With a touchdown, he could have a big Thanksgiving day.

At kicker, you could go one of two ways.  The Viking are visiting the Lions in Detroit for Thanksgiving, and both teams are capable of putting a lot of points on the board regardless of defensive match up.  However, given each has a tough defensive match up, it’s likely they’ll both have several 3-point field goal tries, for additional FanDuel NFL points.  So Matt Prater ($5,100) or Kai Forbath ($4,900) should be your kickers this week.

The best defense on the field this Thursday is the Minnesota Vikings ($4,800).  They’re worth a consideration, but only gave us seven points against Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense earlier in the season.  Also, the Detroit Lions ($4,600) have generated more turnovers and scoring compared to the Vikings.  And the Vikings offense is still in question.  But by far the best match up is the Los Angeles Chargers ($4,200).

The Chargers are probably the most underrated defense in the NFL due to their match ups so far.  And as we saw last Sunday night, the Cowboys have some major issues to fix on offense.  It’s unlikely the Cowboys are in good shape after only four days of planning against some of the best defense backs in the NFL, and Melvin Ingram.  Either of these three defenses are great picks this Thursday, but we like the Chargers the most.

So after reviewing all the options, we put together our favorite lineup for the day.  Here’s a look at our Final FanDuel NFL Thanksgiving Day lineup:

QB – Cousins (WAS $8,800)

RB – Gordon (LAC $8,400)

RB – Perine (WAS $7,600)

WR – Allen (LAC $8,000)

WR – Crowder (WAS $6,300)

WR – King (NYG $4,800)

TE – Davis (WAS $6,400)

K –  Prater (DET $5,100)

D –  Detroit Lions ($4,600)

This leaves us with $0 left, maximizing our picks using value in two receiver positions, defense, and kicker and loading up on some big point potential at quarterback, running back, and receiver.

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for the week.  You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NFL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

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Good luck with your FanDuel NFL plays on Thanksgiving day, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!