John Collins’ rookie season shows value of having one elite advantage
John Collins has been a valuable offensive player so far in his rookie season with the Hawks, and his success could help teams understand how they might support the cluster of big men projected in the late first round of the 2018 NBA draft.
Atlanta is 3-14 this season, and their distance from the playoffs is likely part of the reason they’ve been content giving Collins over 20 minutes per game. Collins was incredibly productive in his sophomore season at Wake Forest, and he has continued to be that type of player so far in his NBA career. The No. 21 overall pick has been most effective when he keeps things simple.
Over three-quarters of Collins’ shots have come within five feet of the basket, according to NBA.com shooting split data, and he has converted 66 percent of those looks. Even more remarkable is that nearly a third of his shots have been dunks. When Collins has an opportunity to finish around the hoop, he does so loudly.
What truly sets Collins apart is that he has continued to produce in the NBA at levels near those he did in college. Finishing and rebounding were his calling cards as a college player and he’s been able to translate those skills to remarkable degree. Whether it was concerns about his stature compared to NBA bigs, his defensive potential or his ability to dominate with more talent around him than he had at Wake Forest, Collins fell further than someone playing this well ever should.
His story can tell us something interesting about the lower-tier 2018 draft prospects lingering near the end of the first round.
Richards and Wiley, two SEC guys with similar profiles as prospects, will probably follow paths closest to Collins’ on their way to the NBA. Yet Carter Jr. is the guy whose production most closely mirrors the Hawks’ rookie, and he’s done it on a team stuffed with elite talent. Washington may be more of a balanced player and a better defensive prospect, but plays with a bounce that reminds you a whole lot of Collins.
Considering these guys together, all between No. 10 and No. 37 on The Step Back’s big board, leads to a larger conversation about bigs in today’s NBA. For the past several drafts, we’ve seen the way that players like Draymond Green, Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis have caused teams to place an extreme emphasis on versatility in the way they scout big men. Collins’ performance, remarkable considering his draft position but not altogether unexpected, shows that scoring big men can still be effective in this league and that bigs do not necessarily need to develop secondary skills to be productive right away.
In my first mock draft of the season, I said this about Richards:
"“Late in the first round, a sure-thing rotation big man is a gift. Richards is on his way to being that type of player, but for a five-star recruit at a school like Kentucky, ordinary success can feel disappointing.”"
I was wrong. Success at the back end of the first round is not disappointing, and the Hawks are experiencing that firsthand. Their below-average offense is nearly three points better per 100 possessions when Collins plays.
Next: Wendell Carter has established his high floor as an NBA Draft prospect
Toolsy bigs who can pass, switch on defense or shoot are flooding the league, but players like Collins should not be ignored. There will be several high-PER guys available to good teams drafting late in the first round next year, and Collins shows just how valuable bigs with one elite advantage can be.