Wendell Carter has established his high floor as an NBA Draft prospect
Marvin Bagley and Grayson Allen rightfully get the press at Duke. Bagley might have the potential to be a top-five pick, and Allen is a four-year senior poised to be in the National Player of the Year conversation. But on a team stacked with as many as five first-round prospects for this coming draft, we can’t sleep on Duke’s supporting cast. Wendell Carter, Trevon Duvall, and Gary Trent, Jr. all have the potential to be lottery picks, but don’t get the publicity because of Duke’s depth of talent.
Carter, who ranked tenth on our inaugural Step Back big board, appears to be Duke’s third-best player right now, but he’s somewhat lost behind Duke’s two stars. He doesn’t get the publicity of his two big-name teammates, and many thought that he might be pushed out of the pecking order, especially after a mundane opener against Elon that saw him pick up three first half fouls and play just 16 minutes. But make no mistake — Carter is deserving of his placement on our board, and his skill set is one that looks very enticing at the next level.
Carter appears to have a very high floor thanks to his rebounding and awareness on both ends. He has good feel on offense, and he looks like he can develop into a good team defender. On the glass, he’s been outstanding against lesser competition, posting a 17.1 percent offensive rebounding rate through five games and averaging 14.8 rebounds per 40 minutes. This isn’t just all energy, either — Carter’s understanding of positioning is impressive, and he has great technique around the basket.
When that rebounding skill is combined with his raw instinct, motor, and athleticism, you can see a simple path towards Carter being a valuable rebounder at the NBA level.
In Duke’s one game against an elite team, vs. Michigan State, Carter also showed the strength to be able to deal with NBA size, routinely getting a seal on Nick Ward under the hoop.
Much of Carter’s offense comes on putbacks and assisted shots at the rim, and that’s probably going to be the case for much of the season as Bagley, Allen, and Trevon Duvall dominate possessions. But through five games, Carter has shown incredible efficiency in this role, which is promising. He’s shooting 65.0 percent from the field per Hoop-Math, displaying solid touch and bounce off the floor when rising up for dunks.
Anything Carter can do that’s advanced offensively hasn’t really been showcased at Duke, which makes it hard to really assess his ceiling as an offensive five. Opportunities for face-up shots, where Carter can use his mobility and length, have mostly been ineffective due to cramped spacing. Unless Allen and Trent are on the floor, Duke doesn’t have the shooters to allow Carter to isolate one-on-one.
It also doesn’t help that Carter’s not a very efficient screener at this point. Despite Duke running a ton of pick-and-roll, neither Carter nor Bagley is a useful screen-setter, and Carter especially struggles to use his size to engage a defender going over a pick. That’s a problem moving forward, although not a unique one at this level this early in the season.
Two pieces of Carter’s offensive game have shown through so far and will hopefully be built upon as the season progresses. The first is his passing — Carter averages 3.6 assists per 40 minutes, and his touch and recognition within the flow of the offense could be valuable tools at the next level.
The other is Carter’s shooting stroke, which appears to be a work in progress that’s a focus for Coach K and Duke in development. Despite shooting only 64 percent from the line so far (this could be due to Carter keeping his lower body stationary on release — his free throws are clunky, and the reliance on his upper body is likely why), Carter has hit 2-of-4 3-point attempts so far, and his stroke from mid-range looks like it can be worked with.
Defensively, Carter’s been up and down through five games, looking decent at times and foul-prone at others. Carter got taken apart by Ward on the defensive end in the Michigan State game, getting burnt twice running the floor early on and struggling to defend him in post situations. We also got to see him try to contest Jaren Jackson at the rim late in the game, and Jackson dislodged him easily.
For this reason, it’s hard to see Carter as a real rim protector prospect at this stage. He’s not strong enough to deal with NBA size at the rim, and he struggles with technique, chasing blocks rather than trying to affect shots at this point. He needs to add strength first before addressing the technique issues, which should mean that any hope that Carter can become a decent shot-blocker is a long-term goal at best.
However, Carter does have some strengths defensively. As mentioned earlier, he’s looked decent at recognizing offensive sets, and putting himself in the right spots to help, either walling off post position or switching pick-and-rolls. His mobility for his frame will help him on the perimeter, where he’s looked decent at walling off the paint from guards.
Carter’s skill set is intriguing, because it looks like he has a very easy path to being a contributing role player at the next level. If he can continue to develop his jumper and face-up game, he can be a useful third or fourth option on offense, finding open space and creating high-percentage opportunities for himself and teammates. And while it’s hard to see him becoming a true rim protector, his pairing of potentially elite rebounding ability and defense in space could make him more like a Tristan Thompson-type defensive player, which can be very valuable in the right team context. Regardless of where his ceiling role is, he should have a high floor just as a rebounder and finisher thanks to his mobility and his instincts.
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Seeing how Duke fleshes out Carter’s skill set on both ends is going to be interesting as the season progresses. His fit next to Bagley hasn’t been perfect, but he’s shown enough as a secondary role player to be productive in spite of the offense not fitting his skill set. How he’s able to diversify his offensive game, especially against more NBA-caliber big men in the ACC, will help us determine what his ceiling is. But early returns suggest his floor is high, and he’s well-deserving of continued attention as a top-10 level prospect.