The Nuggets’ offseason was something of a mixed bag. Signing Paul Millsap to a three-year, $90 million deal was one of the best free agent acquisitions in franchise history and a decidedly positive transaction. Weeks prior to that, however, Denver acquired Trey Lyles and Tyler Lydon, two redundant stretch 4s who became further superfluous once Millsap signed. Mason Plumlee somehow coaxed a three-year, $41 million deal out of the front office. Now, the juxtaposition of those moves has made for an awkwardly crowded frontcourt.
But suddenly, the ever-durable Millsap could be out up to three months with a wrist injury, and Denver’s militia of reserve forwards will be pressed into action. No single player can replace the volume or breadth of Millsap’s production. He is a floor-spacer, rim protector, switch defender and playmaker all rolled into one. His ability to patch any given weakness makes him something of a failsafe on both ends of the floor. Millsap leads the Nuggets in shot attempts and ranks second in scoring and usage. He and Will Barton might be the only players that can reliably conjure a shot attempt or trip to the free-throw line out of nothing.
Denver’s defense drops off by 3.6 points per 100 possessions with Millsap on the bench, the third-largest disparity among Nuggets rotation players. The Nuggets don’t need to be elite on that end of the floor, but they cannot afford a repeat of last year’s 29th-place finish. Become at least a slightly below-average defense, and an explosive offense will carry them to a playoff spot. But Millsap was the piece that would ensure defensive competence. Nikola Jokic’s defensive impact numbers have been excellent, but it begs wondering whether that can persist without his frontcourt partner working in tandem.
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The best stand-in for Millsap on defense may be Kenneth Faried, who has been most affected by the Nuggets’ hoard of big men. After starting for most of his career, Faried has seen his minutes and his production dip in the wake of Jokic’s emergence, Millsap’s arrival and the league’s movement toward more skilled players in the frontcourt. He can’t shoot outside of 10 feet and his playmaking borders on nonexistent; Faried must play in a specific context to be at his best. Ideally an energetic backup for Jokic, he has instead been shoehorned into a role for which he doesn’t quite fit.
What Faried lacks in malleability he makes up for with a singular focus on the glass. Denver’s rebounding numbers fall off a cliff with him on the bench, and he’s fared well alongside the Nuggets’ other starters. He rebounds like crazy, flies around the court and, along with Barton, injects a general bounciness and verve that can be absent from the starting lineup. Faried isn’t as clean a fit with Jokic as Millsap, but few are. His strengths complement Jokic’s, and the two have developed a nice chemistry.
The Nuggets could probably get by simply shortening their rotation, ramping up Faried, Barton and Plumlee’s minutes and playing Wilson Chandler at the 4 more often. But the Millsap-shaped void represents an opportunity for Denver’s greener players to prove themselves and for the team to gain a better sense of how those players might contribute going forward.
Expect Mike Malone to lengthen the leashes of Lyles, Lydon, Juan Hernangomez and Malik Beasley, a quartet whose collective NBA experience amounts to less than half of Millsap’s. Anyone in that cluster could become an important component of Denver’s future. All four, though, need opportunity to develop, which will be inherently difficult given the positional overlap and limited minutes at that position.
Hernangomez is the most proven and promising of the bunch. Unlike Lyles and Lydon, who do little else but stalk the perimeter, he offers intriguing defensive and playmaking upside and can guard wings in a pinch. He shot nearly 41 percent from beyond the arc last year and can get his shot off in a variety of situations. He moves actively off the ball, a must for anyone who hopes to play alongside Jokic.
After missing 11 of the first 14 games of the season with an illness, Hernangomez is only beginning to settle into a rhythm. He was in line for more minutes, Millsap injury or not, and any belief that he could be a long-term frontcourt partner with Jokic will be put to the test as his role expands.
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Beasley may be farther away from being a rotation player, but if Chandler indeed logs increased minutes at the 4, he could be in line for more minutes with the second unit. Now in his second year, there’s still not a big enough sample size on Beasley to determine how he figures into the Nuggets’ immediate or future plans. He hasn’t yet turned 21, and he’s worth a look next to some of Denver’s other young players.
Entrusting unproven players with essential roles can put teams in precarious situations, especially ones desperately trying to return to the playoffs. Denver is already doing that with Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay, and while it has some experience in the frontcourt, the neophytes will factor in more prominently going forward. The Nuggets wound up insuring the right position. Now they have to hope that it pays off.