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NHL expansion: Houston would be a better option than Quebec or Seattle

By Derek Helling

HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 11: An overall interior shot of the Toyota Center during the game between the Houston Rockets and the Memphis Grizzlies on November 11, 2017 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 11: An overall interior shot of the Toyota Center during the game between the Houston Rockets and the Memphis Grizzlies on November 11, 2017 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The NHL will eventually expand to 32 teams, and if it’s smart, will make Houston the home of that franchise.

Fans and investors in Quebec City and Seattle are both hopeful that their efforts will bring NHL franchises to their city in the near future. Whether by expansion of the league or relocation of existing franchises, they have several assets to tout to NHL team owners. Neither of them can make a case as compelling for NHL expansion as Houston right now, however.

The first advantage that Houston has over Quebec City and Seattle is sheer numbers. According to World Population Review, Houston’s population was 2.296 million in 2015. That is over three times the population of Seattle and four times the population of Quebec City.

It’s true that sheer population doesn’t guarantee a robust fan base. South Florida is the second-most populous urban area in the southern United States, but the Florida Panthers are perennially in the bottom of the league in attendance and revenue. By expanding to Houston, however, the NHL would be able to get in on an existing rivalry that now has even spread to esports in the Overwatch League.

Just about a four-hour drive up I-45 is Dallas, whose metro is the home of MLB’s Texas Rangers, MLS’ FC Dallas, the NBA’s Mavericks, the NFL’s Cowboys, the WNBA’s Wings and most importantly for these purposes, the NHL’s Stars. While Quebec City would have a similar immediate rivalry with the Montréal Canadiens and Seattle could become a local rival for the Vancouver Canucks, neither Quebec City nor Seattle offer that reason for people to be interested along with a population as enticing as Houston’s.

Quebec City boasts the most NHL-ready facility of these three venues, but the Toyota Center (where the Houston Comets and Rockets currently play) could easily be converted into use for hockey games as well. This is where Seattle lags the most behind, as there is currently no NHL-ready facility and proposed KeyArena renovations will take at least two to three years. While this isn’t a clear advantage for Houston like its population, Houston doesn’t face a significant disadvantage here either. There are two other distinct advantages that Houston does have over other contenders, however.

The next most important thing for an expansion franchise, or new ownership that would relocate an existing franchise, is invested ownership. That looks very possible in Houston. Rockets owner Tilman J. Fertitta recently restated his interest in bringing the NHL to the city.

Quebec City had a hypothetical ownership group in place during the last round of NHL expansion, and could probably get a similar contingent together again. There are rumors that Boston Celtics minority owner David Bonderman is interested in being the lead of an NHL ownership group in Seattle, but those are just rumors at this point. Fertitta represents not only verified interest, but Katie Strang of The Athletic reported that he met with NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman on the subject. Fertitta not only represents an easy path in getting the NHL into the Toyota Center, but would likely be able to come up with the capital for the expansion fee along with other costs involved.

It’s those financial details that made Las Vegas more attractive than Quebec City in the last round of expansion, and both of the other two contenders have the same huge advantage. Like Nevada, both Texas and Washington do not assess an income tax on their residents. Individual tax rates in Quebec are not only much higher than compared to Texas and Washington, but among the highest in Canada as well.

Combine that with the weakness of the loon as compared to the United States dollar and everyone involved, from players to coaches to front office staff to the crew maintaining the ice, would theoretically make more money in Houston and Seattle.

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Houston has a significantly larger population, a natural rival, an ownership candidate that has connections and deep pockets, a facility that could be ready for hockey next season, and a desirable financial long-term prognosis. Neither Quebec City nor Seattle can make all of those arguments right now. That’s why if the NHL wants to add a 32nd franchise quickly, Houston is the clear choice.

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