DraftKings NBA picks November 27: LeBron or Harden?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks November 27: LeBron or Harden?
We have eight games on Monday, leaving half the league in action. There are some stars out tonight. Which ones are worth spending up for? Let’s check some stats and trends!
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The money line was only at 256.5 DraftKings points last night. My lineups missed because of Chalmers and the Suns frontcourt.
The winning lineup was down to 329.75. That shouldn’t surprise anyone considering that there were no stars. He got value with Tyus Jones, Mike James, and Denzel Valentine to go with Towns and Butler
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Ben Simmons ($10,000): Simmons sat yesterday for what was thought to be a rest day. He is expected to return tonight against Cleveland. That is a great matchup for Simmons. He is already averaging 52.3 DraftKings points per game over the last five games. He is going to increase that so long as he is in the lineup.
Damian Lillard ($8,800): Curry is listed as questionable and he is playing a Kings team that is actually defending the point pretty well. So I will move on to Lillard. The Knicks are not all that great defending the point, and Lillard has topped 42 DraftKings points in five of the last seven games. This is a much better matchup than Curry has, and the game should stay close.
Honorable Mention:
Kyrie Irving ($8,200): Irving has the potential to be an elite scorer. We have seen him go off a few times already this year. Detroit is not that good against point guards. There is potential for Irving to rain down on the Pistons from the outside. Especially if the Celtics are beat up like they were on Saturday.
Chris Paul ($7,900): Paul struggled with his shot on Saturday, but the main thing to take away is that he played 31 minutes in that game. The Rockets continue to gradually increase his minutes, so there is a chance that he could top that tonight. If not, his 30 minutes of court time should be more than enough for 5x value. There is still potential for more.
Lou Williams ($6,500): The Clippers decimated backcourt has shaken things up by moving Williams into the starting five. The experiment has gone very well so far. LouWill racked up 76.5 DraftKings points in the two games so far. It looks as though they are going to keep rolling with this setup for now, so I like Williams a lot on this price range.
Dark Horses:
Darren Collison ($6,100): Collison has at least 30 DraftKings points in each of the last six games. I expect ownership of Elfrid Payton to be really high tonight, otherwise he is worth a look on the other side of this game. If you aren’t worried about ownership, Payton has a much higher upside, but Collison’s production should increase with Oladipo out.
T.J. McConnell ($4,700): I actually still like McConnell even with Simmons coming back. Cleveland has not been good on the perimeter at all, and McConnell should be able to run over the second team. He doesn’t have a lot of upside, but I really don’t see a scenario in which he doesn’t hit value tonight.
Jarrett Jack ($3,900): Jack has been on a tear over the last two games. He has 66.25 DraftKings points over that span. Ntilikina isn’t going to take enough minutes to slow him down anytime soon. Jack has another good matchup against Portland tonight. He should be an absolute steal once again.
My pick: Jack(PG); Simmons(PG), Jack(G), Williams(SG), McConnell(UTIL)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,800): Harden continues to put up big numbers even with Chris Paul in the lineup. I am a little nervous to see how it will go once Paul gets back up to his full minutes, but that wont happen tonight. I like the matchup with Brooklyn here tonight. It may even be worth it to splurge on Harden. After all, he is averaging 57 DraftKings points per game on the season.
Klay Thompson ($7,000): Thompson has been solid yet unspectacular this season, but guess what? Klay is playing the Kings tonight. He has blown up on the Kings more than once in his career. It does not happen every time, but often enough that I am interested every time he takes the court against the Kings.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. McCollum ($6,900): I likely wont use McCollum and Lillard in the same lineup, but I still like both of them tonight. If pressed to pick one, I would go with McCollum. One, because he is cheaper. But also because the Knicks are slightly better against point guards than shooting guards. McCollum should be close to Lillard’s production at a much lower price.
Dwyane Wade ($5,400): Wade laid an egg last game, so I’m thinking that ownership will be lower. There are other options here, but Fournier has been cold and Hardaway has a very tough matchup against Portland. I will dig a little deeper and bank on a rebound game (ironic because he failed to grab one of those last game) against a Philadelphia team that still hasn’t figured out how to guard on the perimeter.
Dark Horses:
J.J. Redick ($5,100): He plays at least 30 minutes a game, and is one of the best snipers from long range in the game. What’s not to like about his upside? Did I mention that he is playing the Cavs, who can’t defend the perimeter? Redick could be in for a big night!
Lance Stephenson ($4,100): Stephenson filled in nicely for Oladipo on Saturday, finishing with 33 DraftKings points. He is going to get extended run again tonight with Oladipo out. I do expect ownership to be out of control on Stephenson, but I will get separation elsewhere. The value potential here with very little risk can’t be ignored.
My pick: Redick(SG), Stephenson(G); Stephenson(F)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,400): I’m not going to sit here and tell you not to play LeBron. Philadelphia is still not a great defensive team and The King can still put up monster numbers. He has a 77 and a 92.5 DraftKings point game to his credit in this month alone! If you are asking whether I prefer him or Harden, I think I have to go with James. First off, this is clearly his team. I still think Harden could cede some control to Paul. Also, there is much better value at SG tonight than SF. You can play cheap guards and still use LeBron and Simmons at the SF slot.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,800): Kuzma’s only action against the Clippers came before he had the starting gig. He picked up a DraftKings point per minute, so if he can do that while starting, he will be at 5x value. The drop off at SF is steep because I don’t think Durant plays more than 30 minutes if at all. Another reason to use LeBron over Harden.
Honorable Mention:
Robert Covington ($6,500): Aside from a hiccup in the first game against the Warriors, Covington has been hitting 30-35 DraftKings points like clockwork. There is a lot of talent on this team, so his upside isn’t great, but Covington almost always gives you what you pay for. That is valuable in any format.
Brandon Ingram ($6,100): In the midst of all of the flash in L.A., Ingram has become the consistent one in this lineup. Ingram is going to be a big piece of this lineup whether the Lakers go big or small. He is a constant for 30 DraftKings points or more. He and Covington are nearly interchangeable right now, but if I have the money, I’m going Covington.
Dark Horses:
DeMarre Carroll ($5,700): Allen Crabbe‘s back tightened up on him last night. Carroll took big advantage of the extra opportunities and put up one of the best games he has had this year. If Crabbe is out again, I want Carroll in all of my lineups.
Wesley Johnson ($4,400): Johnson only played 19 minutes against the Lakers in the first meeting between the teams, but with Gallinari out, Johnson will get more run. Johnson picked up 19 DraftKings points in those 19 minutes, so the potential is here for really good value.
My pick: James(SF); Carroll(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bet:
Blake Griffin ($9,000): Griffin dominated the Lakers up front in the first meeting. He racked up 53.5 DraftKings points in only 33 minutes! The Lakers haven’t improved up front since that first game. In fact, they may even be worse. If you aren’t willing to pay up for LeBron or Harden, Griffin is definitely the guy you want.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,700): Aldridge ran roughshod over Dallas in the first meeting. He picked up 48.75 DraftKings points in that one. LMA continues to carry the heavy load with Kawhi out. That will definitely continue against a Dallas team that is solid on the perimeter, but still struggles with inside forces. This should be another strong night for Aldridge.
Honorable Mention:
Aaron Gordon ($7,400): One of these days, Gordon will be a consistent force for the Magic. Right now, he is still a risky play most nights. He did pick up 34.5 DraftKings points on the Pacers in the first meeting, so there is hope for him to put up good numbers tonight. How confident are you in it though?
Jayson Tatum ($5,800): Tatum was a complete dud in a great matchup on Saturday. So it is with rookies sometimes. That risk is exacerbated when you have a team like the Celtics who have a strong force at point and at center. The rest of the team is sometimes forgotten on offense. That said, offense isn’t where Tatum came up short. He has just two rebounds for other stats on Saturday.
Dark Horses:
Zach Randolph ($5,400): Randolph has been the only consistent play in the Kings frontcourt this year. Cauley-Stein has tantalizing upside, but it’s not going to be realized against the Warriors. This is where you want a grizzled veteran. Enter Randolph and his 30 minutes. 6x value is not out of reach here .
Dario Saric ($5,200): This is purely matchup based. If Crowder is on Saric instead of Love, this becomes a can’t-miss matchup. If Love is guarding Saric instead, I like it a lot less because Love is the type of player that takes away Saric’s matchup advantage. However, there will be a misamatch somewhere in the frontcourt for this game. The key is finding it.
Trevor Booker ($4,600): Rondae Hollis-Jefferson rolled his ankle last night, and Booker came up big in his stead. If RHJ is out, and that looks very likely at this point, Booker is a great value candidate, even against Houston.
My pick: Griffin(PF); Aldridge(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
Joel Embiid ($10,400): Embiid managed to dominate the Magic inside with just 29 minutes and a cold on Saturday night. It appears as though the malady is over, and he is ready to take it to the Cavs on a national stage. Embiid is such a physical force that he is going to be too much for the Cavs to handle inside with Tristan Thompson out. He could be in for a big night.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300): The Knicks have been very quiet on the status of Porzingis, but his back issues were not supposed to be serious. With the injuries piling up on the Knicks frontcourt, Porzingis will be in action if at all possible. He has a good matchup against Portland as well. This could be a chance to cash in on lower price and lower ownership. If Porzingis is out, I’m on Kanter. If both are out, fire up O’Quinn again!
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Vucevic ($7,300): Vucevic tore apart the Pacers up front in their first meeting. He picked up 49.25 DraftKings points despite playing just 29 minutes because of foul trouble. If you are looking off the upper tier, Vucevic is a great option. He is even if you aren’t!
Clint Capela ($7,000): The Nets are the second worst team in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers. Capela dominated the battered Knicks on Saturday, and has a chance at doing the same to a battered Nets front. If you are worried about ownership on Vucevic, Capela is a strong pivot option.
DeAndre Jordan ($6,700): This is a great matchup for Jordan. He racked up 48.5 DraftKings points on the Lakers the first time around. Having Randle back is a big help for the Lakers, but not enough. I still see Jordan grabbing at least 6x value tonight.
Dark Horses:
Brook Lopez ($5,500): Lopez has been terrible lately. Just terrible. He has just 29 DraftKings points combined in his last two games! It appears safe to get back on for this ride though. Lopez put up 34.5 DraftKings points against the Clippers in the first meeting. He is well priced for the numbers he could put up and looks like a serviceable value play.
Dirk Nowitzki ($4,300): The future Hall of Famer looks to be chugging from the Fountain of Youth right now. Dirk has at least 30 DraftKings points in each of the last three games and picked up 31.5 in the first meeting with the Spurs. Good things are happening for Dirk right now, and this looks like another good situation.
My pick: Jordan(C), Nowitzki(F), Lopez(UTIL); Vucevic(C)
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