FanDuel EPL DFS Analysis: Fixtures, Flyers & Fades – 28 Nov 2017
By David Gate
Welcome to a rare midweek FanDuel EPL DFS slate! Read on for tips, picks and analysis for the four Premier League games on Tuesday Nov 28th.
It’s good to be back. I’ve been away the last few weeks in England where it is impossible to even look at the FanDuel slates! Sorry there have not been articles for the last two game weeks but we get to make up for it this week with two great midweek slates!
These don’t come around too often and is a great time to play. DFS addicts love an afternoon slate, especially out of baseball season! That means there will be a few more casual players who don’t normally want to eat up their Saturday mornings with EPL updates. That means more opportunity for us to cash!
I’ve decided to change the way I do these articles and rather do a break down by position I want to give you fixtures, flyers and fades. Fixtures are those you need to build your lineups around. Flyers are the gambles and the punts; cheaper or lesser known players in great positions for a break out game. Fades are those you need to avoid; I think who you choose to fade in soccer DFS is more important than in any other DFS sport.
There is always more rotation than usual with midweek games so keep an eye out on the FanDuel site to make sure your picks are starting. I’ll be on Twitter @davidgatesports to chat through lineups from 1:45pm EST. Happy to give advice with any surprises on the team sheets.
Okay FanDuel EPL midweek slate – let’s get it!
FanDuel EPL: Fixtures
This is a smaller 4 game slate with only two of the ‘big 6’ teams playing and they dominate the upper end of the player pricing. One of the first things you need to do is to work out how you want to play Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. I am leaning heavily towards Spurs on this slate.
Spurs are a top four away side – they are much better on the road – and they play Leicester who are a bottom four home side. Tottenham have blitzed the weaker teams away from home scoring 12 goals in 4 games against inferior opposition. This makes Harry Kane (11000) and Christian Eriksen (9500) locks for this week especially at their prices. I have also found it easy to get Dele Alli (9000) in my lineups for a big Spurs stack.
In defense I love the matchup of Brighton’s Shane Duffy (7000) and Lewis Dunk (6500) against Roy Hodgson’s hit-and-hope Crystal Palace side. There is a good chance that Christian Benteke returns this week which would only increase the amount of times Palace will play long.
If David de Gea (5000) is on the slate then he goes straight into my lineups this season. He is virtually matchup proof as United give away enough chances for him to make saves and Mourinho’s cautious tactics always make him a clean sheet possibility. He is also the best goalkeeper in the world and I trust him with my money!
FanDuel EPL: Flyers
Will Hughes (5000) has finally made it into the Watford first team and they are surely wondering why they did not put him in earlier. He has two goals and an assist in his two starts for the Hornets. He is a very good player and ready-made for Premier League football. I’m predicting he forces himself into World Cup contention this year. This is a tougher matchup for him against Man Utd but at his bargain price there is little risk and lots of upside.
I have no idea why Yohan Cabaye (7000) is still so cheap. He has scored over 24 FanDuel points in his last four games and five times in the last six. What makes that even more impressive is that he has no goals or assists in those games. One goal from him and you are looking at 50 point performance.
As I mentioned Christian Benteke (7000) should return to the Palace starting lineup this week and is under priced after missing games through injury. He is the perfect player for Hodgson’s style of football and should greatly benefit from playing under a new manager.
If Benteke doesn’t start then I would pivot to Glen Murray (7500) on the other side of the ball. Palace have given up 25 goals this season and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in the 12 games. Someone will score for Brighton and Murray is the most likely as a 5/2 anytime scorer.
FanDuel EPL: Fades
I love the position that Spurs are in so I am going to be all in on them. Manchester United are not in a bad spot against Watford who have given up the second most goals at home this season. But because I expect both Spurs and Man Utd to be chalky I think there is far more upside in fading United this week.
Romelu Lukaku (11500) is in a terrible dry spell after his hot start with only one goal in the last 6 games. He has been a streaky scorer his whole career and eventually he will hit a hot patch again. I just don’t think it starts this week as I am expecting an unadventurous Man Utd lineup away from home on a two game week.
I would consider almost every Man Utd attacker as a fade this week; Rashford, Martial, Mata and Mkhitaryan. The one player I would consider using is Paul Pogba (10000) who is heavily involved in everything Man Utd do. If you don’t want to go all in on Spurs you might consider Pogba as alternative to either Ericksen or Alli.
The West Brom v Newcastle game should be avoided in total. There is very little upside in this match and neither team possesses the attacking ability to dominate. The one exception here would be Mikel Merino (6500) who missed a month through injury and whose price has dipped to be good value if he starts on Tuesday.
FanDuel EPL DFS Lineups
Note: these are sample lineups and are not optimized. The only guarantee I can give you is that I will playing them too. I will also have some lines that are not here. Best thing is to take some of these picks and build your own lineup – especially in GPP – as lineup sharing only reduces the amount you can win.
Lineup 1: Tottenham stack
FWD: Kane – Tottenham Hotspur
FWD: Benteke – Crystal Palace
MID: Ericksen – Tottenham Hotspur
MlD: Alli – Tottenham Hotspur
MID: Hughes – Watford
DEF: Dunk – Brighton
DEF: Davies – Tottenham
GK: De Gea – Man Utd
Lineup 2:
FWD: Kane – Tottenham Hotspur
FWD: Murray – Brighton
MID: Pogba – Manchester United
MlD: Cabaye – Crystal Palace
MID: Hughes – Watford
DEF: Dunk – Brighton
DEF: Duffy – Brighton
GK: De Gea – Man Utd
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