DraftKings NBA picks November 30: LeBron, Giannis, or both?

We are down to five games tonight, which is actually pretty good for a Thursday. We have some stars in action, but we already know that Embiid is sitting. We know at least one spot to chase value! Where are the rest?

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($9,300): Simmons put up 31 points and 18 rebounds in 41 minutes last night, so, yeah, the ankle is fine. He has a bit of a tough matchup against Boston, but we know better than to fade Simmons on a night like this, don’t we class?

Damian Lillard ($8,500): Lillard racked up 44.75 DraftKings points in the first tilt with the Bucks. Brogdon is a good defender, so if anything, the arrival of Bledsoe could actually boost Lillard’s numbers a bit. Lillard has four straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points. It should be five by this time tomorrow.

Honorable Mention:

Dennis Schroder ($7,500): You may be asking: what about Kyrie? I didn’t forget about him. I’m just not using him. Irving was well under value in his first meeting with the Sixers, and he is averaging ten less DraftKings points per game at home. I would much rather go with a cheaper Schroder who put up 43.25 DraftKings points in his first meeting with Cleveland.

Eric Bledsoe ($6,800): When Bledsoe got traded to Milwaukee, I didn’t think it would help his stats much. It appears that I was wrong. Bledsoe has put up more than 35 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. He should be in for another strong game against Portland tonight.

Dark Horses:

Kris Dunn ($6,000): Dunn did the trendy thing and beat up on the Suns on Tuesday. He will have a little tougher go tonight against Denver, but not much. The Nuggets have struggled with point guards this year. I don’t expect another performance like Tuesday, but 6x value is on the table.

Jerryd Bayless ($3,400): I don’t trust the point guard situation in Denver at all, but feel free to play Colorado Roulette if you like. I will go with Bayless, who scored 14 points last night. McConnell is out for tonight at the very least with the same shoulder injury that forced him from this one. Bayless will have a little tougher go against Boston, but 6x value is likely his floor.

My pick: Bledsoe(PG), Simmons(SF), Bayless(G); Bayless(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Donovan Mitchell ($6,900): Mitchell is still a rookie, so he will still have ups and downs. He was just 7-20 from the floor in the first game with the Clippers, so that put him under value. You know the shots are going to be there, it’s just a matter of whether Mitchell hits them or not. On a short slate like this, Mitchell is worth the risk just for the volume of shots alone.

C.J. McCollum ($6,700): Many will prefer the veteran McCollum to Mitchell, and I don’t blame them. However, Lillard is clearly the top option in Portland. Mitchell is the top scoring option in Utah. McCollum does do more when he doesn’t have the ball and he plays more minutes. Then there is the fact that McCollum put up 35.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Bucks.

Honorable Mention:

Denzel Valentine ($5,800): Valentine isn’t the most consistent guy around, but he is one of the few in a Bulls uniform that can put the ball in the basket most nights. This is a young team, so relying on any one player is usually a bad idea. I do agree with that, but most of them are cheap enough to take a chance on at least one of them.

Dwyane Wade ($5,600): Wade’s best game as a member of the Cavs came against Atlanta earlier this year. It was vintage Wade, who torched the Hawks for 51.25 DraftKings points. That likely wont happen again, but Wade has over 30 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. He is getting plenty of minutes for the beat up Cavs guard corps, and is a favorite bargain target of mine tonight.

Dark Horses:

Kent Bazemore ($5,400): Bazemore has fallen on hard times lately, but he did put up 42.25 DraftKings points in the first game against Cleveland. It’s tough to rely on a guy that has only hit 5x value in four of the last 10 games. However, the track record is there against the Cavs, and it is a small tournament tonight. Options are limited.

Marco Belinelli ($4,200): Belinelli was cold in the first game against the Cavs, and he played just 18 minutes. The veteran sharpshooter has picked it up lately, only missing 5x value twice in the last ten games. If you are looking for an obtuse punt play with decent upside, Belinelli fits that bill.

My pick: Bazemore(SG); Wade(SG), Belinelli(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,700): I don’t know that I could fade LeBron, even against Atlanta. He has been the driving force for the Cavs for pretty much the entire month. The King picked up 56.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Hawks. That still wouldn’t be enough to hit value right now. The only reason I would fade LeBron is if a feared a blowout. There is enough value on the slate that it is likely best to play it safe and roster both him and Giannis.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100): Giannis punished the Blazers for 65.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting this year. However, the last time the Freak topped 60 was on November 11th against the Lakers. He is still comfortably in the 50’s most games, but LeBron has been the better option of late.

Honorable Mention:

Justin Holiday ($5,800): Holiday had a career high in threes and points and tied a career high in assists against Phoenix on Tuesday. Holiday’s last two games have been better than Valentine’s. These two can likely coexist at some point, but right now we are likely better off using the hot one or none at all.

Marcus Smart ($5,200): Smart is pretty clearly outplaying Jaylen Brown right now, but he still can’t crack the starting lineup. Not that it matters. Smart has played more than 30 minutes and put up more than 30 DraftKings points in each of the last two games. Smart is playing enough and well enough to anchor down a spot in this rotation.

Dark Horses:

Taurean Prince ($4,800): Prince put up 27.75 DraftKings points against the Cavs the first time. However,he has been inconsistent at best since then. Prince has been over 27 and under 15 twice each in his last four games. You are really rolling the dice here, but the track record is there if that is good enough for you.

Wesley Johnson ($4,400): Johnson was awful on Monday against the Lakers, but that had to do with him spending much of the game in foul trouble. Johnson is still the top option with Gallinari out, and could see even more minutes with Griffin out. He is one of the stronger punt plays of the night.

My pick: Holiday(F); James(SF), Antetokounmpo(F), Johnson(UTIL)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Kevin Love ($8,000): Love had his worst game of the season in the first game with the Hawks. I don’t see Love being that bad, nor will he be as good as he was on Tuesday. We will settle for something in between. He is the clear second option to LeBron, so Love is definitely an option tonight.

Derrick Favors ($6,600): Favors struggled in the first meeting with the Clippers, but he wasn’t starting then and he wont have to face Blake Griffin now. I like Favors to do much better tonight and at least get close to 5x value.

Honorable Mention:

Lauri Markkanen ($6,400): This could be a situation where Bobby Portis matches up better with Denver, but we wont really know until we see how the game goes. The Bulls are still going to start Markkanen, and he is capable of putting up big numbers in a short amount of time, but this may be one situation where I leave the rookie alone tonight.

Jayson Tatum ($5,900): Tatum put up 29.5 DraftKings points on the Sixers in the first meeting. He has a great chance to do it again, especially on a night where Embiid will sit. Tatum is still a pretty inconsistent rookie, but he is worth a look on a short slate with a good matchup.

Dark Horses:

John Collins ($5,500): Collins is a certain chalk play tonight with Dedmon and Muscala both out again. It also doesn’t hurt that he is going against a Cleveland team that is below average up front without Tristan Thompson. I kind of want to avoid this because of the high ownership, but all signs are pointing to Collins having a really good game.

Kenneth Faried ($4,300): Faried has been given some run with Paul Millsap out, but he still doesn’t factor enough into games to have really high upside. With this coaching staff in place, we will likely never see Faried have one of those truly great games like he has shown in the past. He is a risky option, because even with Millsap out, he has been a healthy scratch once and played under 10 minutes in another.

My pick: Collins(PF); Collins(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($9,100): Jokic is clearly the most talented center on the board, but I don’t like him as much as I probably should. The Bulls are in the top five of the league in fantasy points allowed to centers. The Bulls are also pretty weak on the outside, so the Nuggets wont have to bother with attacking the inside here unless they want to. I see a below average night for Jokic. How far below is debatable.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,100): Yeah, I know. You think I’ve really lost it this time. However, my logic is legit. Jordan racked up 40.5 DraftKings points in the first game against Utah. Now the Jazz are without Rudy Gobert and the Clippers are without Griffin. Jordan has been huge in his career when he has to pick up the slack for an injured Griffin. I like him to come up big here in a situation where the ownership will be lower than it should on Jordan.

Honorable Mention:

Al Horford ($6,800): Horford wont have to tangle with Joel Embiid tonight, so that automatically makes him a pretty solid option. He picked up 34.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Sixers with Embiid in there. Horford could be in position for a big night here.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700): The Bucks were pretty bad up front even before Monroe was dealt. Now they are a disaster. Nurkic put up 41.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Bucks. Expect Nurkic to dominate down low again tonight. Nurkic should hit 6x value with ease and have the potential for more.

Dark Horses:

Noah Vonleh ($4,000): The return of Aminu couldn’t have come at a worse time for Vonleh. He has turned into an able scorer to go with his good rebounding ability. Aminu likely wont play more than 20 minutes, so Vonleh will still have plenty of chances tonight. He may not after tonight though.

Amir Johnson ($3,800): Johnson or Jahlil Okafor have drawn starts with Embiid out this year. Okafor is pretty much entirely out of the picture now, so it should come down to Johnson or Holmes. Whichever one picks up the start is definitely worth playing.

My pick: Nurkic(C), Jordan(UTIL); Johnson(C)

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