Quarter Season Awards: Is James Harden the unanimous MVP?
There is still a lot of basketball to be played this NBA season, but it’s never too early to take stock of what we’ve seen thus far. So from who has been the MVP in the opening 20 games of the season to which of Brad Stevens and Gregg Popovich is more deserving of Coach of the Year, writers from The Step Back make their cases for the quarter season awards.
Who is your pick for Most Valuable Player right now?
Chris Manning (@cwmwrites): James Harden, and I don’t think it’s close. Even with Chris Paul back, he’s leading the league in points and assists, and the Rockets are arguably the best team in the league right now. There has been no player as dominant as him so far this year, and he’s ahead of everyone right now.
Bryan Toporek (@btoporek): James Harden. The NBA’s version of the “always a bridesmaid, never a bride” in the MVP race may be headed toward yet another runner-up finish now that Chris Paul is back in the fold, but Harden hasn’t slowed down one bit after his career-best season in 2016-17. Heading into Monday, he was leading the league in points (31.4) and assists (9.8) per game, while the Rockets were perched atop the Western Conference with a 15-4 record. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and a pair of Warriors won’t let Harden run away with the award, but he’s the front-runner through the quarter pole of the season.
Jeremy Lambert (@jeremylambert88): It’s James Harden. The Rockets offense didn’t miss a beat without Chris Paul thanks to Harden’s play. The only other person worthy of consideration right now is LeBron James. He’s lifted a Cleveland team that everyone was questioning three weeks ago to nine-straight wins. You can’t ignore Cleveland’s slow start, which is why Harden easily gets the nod, but LeBron is quickly catching up.
Rory Masterson (@rorymasterson): Anyone who can look you in the eyes and, with a straight face, suggest that anyone other than James Harden is the MVP right now is either misinformed, flat-out ignorant or simply trying to get a rise out of you. Because you, a person who surely checks and double-checks facts relentlessly at a point in human history when that is more important than ever, see that the Rockets currently have the best record in the West and have already withstood the obligatory short-term Chris Paul injury. You can feel confident in the fact that Harden’s league-leading scoring and assist numbers aren’t masking some bubbling issues that Paul’s return to form would complicate. Harden also leads the league in assist percentage and has been serviceable enough on defense to boost his Box Plus-Minus figure to a career-high. Time will tell what kind of impact Paul and Harden have on each other long-term, but for now, Harden is tops.
Paul Centopani (@PCentopani): *Looks Rory in the eyes, puts on a straight face* James Harden is obviously having a phenomenal year, but LeBron James is the most valuable player so far. He leads his team in four of the five major stat categories (only behind Kevin Love in rebounding). He also leads the NBA in minutes played, even though he’s in his 15th season and carried his teams to the past seven finals. Cleveland was a wreck to begin the year but are now the hottest in the league, winners of nine straight. Take Harden off the Rockets, and they’re a worse version of the Rockets. Take LeBron off the Cavaliers, and they’re the Mavericks.
Ben Ladner (@bladner): Right now, it’s James Harden. When Chris Paul was out, Harden was basically orchestrating a better version of last year’s hyper-efficient Rockets. He lead them to the best record in the West despite being the only healthy All Star on his team. Harden is probably due for some regression now that Paul is back, and while it seems he’ll remain the primary offensive threat, Houston’s offense won’t be nearly as Harden-centric as it has been. The Cavaliers are starting to come around, and no less than 90 percent of that is due to LeBron James. He’s having arguably the best year of his career, and with Kawhi Leonard probably out of the running at this point, this award is going to be LeBron’s to lose. But right now, it’s pretty clearly Harden.
Who is your pick for Defensive Player of the Year right now?
Manning: What’s weird about this year’s race is that most of the league’s top-10 defenses so far don’t have one guy carrying the brunt of the load. Instead, schemes are winning out and groups of solid defenders are leading teams. That said, is there a player having a bigger individual impact than Joel Embiid so far? Philadelphia is over 10 points worse on defense when he’s off the floor and they are statistically one of the league’s elite defenses when he’s on the floor. Draymond Green deserves some love, too.
Toporek: My preseason pick of Rudy Gobert isn’t looking so great at the moment, so I’ll go with a homer pick and take Joel Embiid. Heading into Monday, the Sixers allowed opponents to score just 97.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, per NBA.com, which is one-tenth of a point behind the Celtics’ league-leading mark. When he’s on the bench, opponents light up Philly to the tune of 107.7 per 100. Considering Embiid is somewhere between 69 and 81 percent in terms of his conditioning, just imagine how defensively dominant he’ll be once he fully has his basketball legs under him.
Lambert: If we’re going with homer picks, I’ll take Andre Roberson. He’s still practically useless on offense, but he’s better than ever on defense right now. Playing alongside Paul George helps, but looking at his on/off numbers is pretty revealing. The Thunder, currently the second best defense, have a 93.3 rating with Roberson on the floor. That number jumps to 104.9 with him off the court. George deserves a lot of consideration as well, even if his on/off numbers don’t tell the true story of his value.
Masterson: As much as I would love to tap New York City mayoral candidate Kristaps Porzingis as the DPOY based purely on his league-leading blocks per game figure, and as excellent as Joel Embiid has been for the Sixers on both ends of the floor, I’m inclined to say Anthony Davis, with further respect due to Kevin Durant and any of Jaylen Brown, Al Horford or Marcus Smart. The Pelicans have held steady in an injured-riddled West thus far, and the twin turbo engine of Davis and DeMarcus Cousins is gelling really well. Davis is everywhere on defense, jumping passing lanes and making opponents constantly think twice about driving into the paint. To that end, Davis improves New Orleans’ net rating enormously, with much of his impact coming on defense. When he’s on, opponents have an offensive rating of 103.5; when he sits, the Pelicans allow that number to grow to an unseemly 116.2. Although the Pelicans currently have a slightly below-league average defensive rating, Davis’ impact on any lineup he’s in can make up for the myriad shortcomings of his less talented teammates, especially in the backcourt.
Centopani: I want to make this a tandem pick, kinda like a couple years ago when the Hawks were really good and four of their starters made the All-Star Team. I’m bestowing my co-DPOY award to Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown. Boston has the best defensive rating in the league and these two respectively rank second and third in individual defensive rating (for players averaging at least 25 minutes per game). If that’s not allowed, they split the votes and Joel Embiid takes it.
Ladner: I’m from Atlanta, so you won’t hear any homer picks from me. With apologies to Draymond, Roberson and the entire Celtics’ starting five, my pick right now would be Joel Embiid. The Sixers’ defensive rating with Embiid on the floor would rank second in the league behind the Celtics. Without him, they would rank 28th in the league. His blocks are down, but he’s still a terrifying presence at the rim and an excellent defensive rebounder. With Rudy Gobert out, I think Embiid has to be considered the best interior defender in the league.
Who is your pick for Sixth Man of the Year right now?
Manning: This likely won’t last, but I’ll go with Kyle Korver. Behind LeBron James, he’s been the second most consistent player on the Cavaliers, has been a key part in some fairly good bench units and is shooting just under 45 percent from 3. Without him, the Cavaliers would be in a lot of trouble.
Toporek: It has to be Tyreke Evans, right? He’s playing at his highest level in years and is doing his damnedest to keep the flailing Grizzlies afloat. With him pouring in nearly 20 points per game, it’s no coincidence that Memphis has one of the league’s most potent benches. I fully expect Eric Gordon to be in the mix as well, but for now, he has started too many games to be eligible. Will Barton also deserves a shout-out here.
Lambert: Dwyane Wade. He deserves a lot of credit for moving to the bench early in his stint and embracing that role. He’s been huge for Cleveland during their recent run, really stabilizing the Cleveland offense when James sits. Wade probably won’t get a lot of consideration just due to his name, but he certainly deserves it.
Masterson: Jordan Clarkson deserves some consideration. Although his team is generally not good-to-disastrous, Clarkson is the Lakers’ second-leading scorer at 15.2 points on only 22 minutes per game (that would translate to 24.8 per 36 minutes) and hasn’t started a single game this season, and he’s shooting career-highs in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage and effective field goal percentage. He’s been excellent off the bench for Los Angeles, which makes it all the more disconcerting to imagine the Lakers moving one of him or Julius Randle. As a young team with a lot of raw talent and upcoming contract decisions, the Lakers will have to make some exceptionally tough decisions. Hopefully, Clarkson’s bloom makes one of them that much tougher.
Centopani: Hard to argue with the season Tyreke Evans is having. With Mike Conley sidelined with a sore Achilles, he’s stepped up as a secondary ball handler and playmaker. Will Barton is next in line for me and Manu Ginobili is third as part of a lifetime achievement award.
Ladner: I don’t know if Rodney Hood qualifies yet, because he’s started nine games, but he’s come off the bench in eight of Utah’s last nine, and it looks like that will be his role going forward. He leads the Jazz in scoring and is hitting 40 percent of his 3s on over seven attempts per game. But since he hasn’t been a sixth man for very long yet, I’ll also go with Korver for the time being. He’s been the only Cavaliers guard who gives a crap on a nightly basis and he’s still lethal as ever from beyond the arc.
Who is your pick for Most Improved Player right now?
Manning: In the vein of Giannis Antetokounmpo winning last year, I’ll take Kristaps Porzingis. We already know how talented he is, but in a post-Carmelo Anthony world, he’s gotten even better. As of Wednesday, he’s averaging 27 points per game while shooting career-best numbers overall and from distance with a usage rate about seven percent higher than either of the last two seasons. Assuming a few lingering injuries don’t hamper him over the rest of the season, I think this is his award to lose.
Toporek: Preseason favorites such as Gary Harris, Myles Turner and Rodney Hood have yet to break out as anticipated, so it’s between Aaron Gordon and Victor Oladipo for me. We’ve seen dominant flashes from both of these guys before, but their consistency is coming as a surprise. Gordon’s unsustainably hot 3-point shooting from earlier in the year has begun regressing to the mean, so for now — assuming the knee injury that sidelined him Saturday night isn’t a long-term issue — Oladipo gets my vote. Both have strong cases for the award, though.
Lambert: Can it be Joel Embiid just for improving his availability? I can’t stand this award because a guy like Kyle Lowry has improved himself by scoring less, rebounding more and showing more control over the Raptors offense. But no one is going to say “Kyle Lowry has improved a ton” when looking at his numbers. I’m picking Kyle Anderson because Spurs.
Masterson: Ah, now I get to answer Kristaps Porzingis. After all of the shuffling among teams this offseason, some players were poised to bust loose — Victor Oladipo in Indiana, out from under the shadow of a triple-double monolith and vital to a post-Paul George revolution; Rodney Hood, taking advantage of the minutes Gordon Hayward left behind in Salt Lake City; and, perhaps most notably, Porzingis, free of the Phil Jackson’s trigonometric iron first and Carmelo Anthony’s iso-heavy elbow ball. Naturally, then, Porzingis is averaging career-highs in nearly every offensive category on the second-highest usage rate in the league. He has maintained his efficiency and, with unlikely boosts from the likes of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jarrett Jack, has led the Knicks to a surprisingly decent start to the season. In doing so, he has blossomed into the full-on superstar he was destined to be, going all the way back to his nonchalant reaction to being booed by the very constituency of fans over which he now lords at the 2015 NBA Draft.
Centopani: I always have the hardest time picking this one. Do you go with someone who went from merely good to great or mediocre to good? Do we quantify it as an aggregate improvement across all stat categories from one year to the next? Either way, it’s a strong class this year with guys like Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo, Joel Embiid or even someone like Enes Kanter. All worthy names, but my pick is Kristaps Porzingis. The Zinger went from embodying the NBA’s unicorn ideal to a darkhorse MVP candidate. So far, he’s averaging 27 points, 7.2 rebounds and a league-leading 2.2 blocks. It’s amazing how much you improve by dropping 430 pounds of dead weight in the offseason.
Ladner: It’s hard to tell whose improvements are real and whose are just early-season blips. Right now, I’d say Aaron Gordon because of the improvement from 3 and on the glass. It helps that he’s been playing the right position from day one, but Gordon appears to be blossoming into the player his optimists thought he’d be. He gets the slight edge over Oladipo because I’m inclined to believe Oladipo is benefitting more from a new environment than Gordon is. Both have been worlds better than they were last year, but it feels like Gordon upgraded his actual skills more than Oladipo did.
Who is your pick for Coach of the Year right now?
Manning: Brad Stevens has to be the pick. His impact on Kyrie Irving is, I think, a bit overstated, but the Celtics have been the best team in the East so far despite a large amount of roster overhaul and a reliance on a pair of wings who entered the year with one year of combined NBA experience. Oh, and the team’s best player was lost for the season on the first night of the season. He deserves the credit for the job he’s done.
Toporek: Gregg Popovich deserves credit for guiding this Kawhi Leonard-less Spurs roster to a 12-7 record — the third-best in the West — but Brad Stevens is running away with this award through the first 20 games. When Gordon Hayward went down with a season-ending ankle injury on opening night, the Celtics’ title chances appeared to go up in flames. Instead, after starting the year 0-2, they reeled off 16 straight wins, cementing themselves as a legit contender even without Hayward. That’s a testament to Stevens, who recalibrated his new-look team on the fly and is quickly moving up the ranks of the top coaches across the league.
Lambert: I’ve been very impressed with what Stevens has been able to do this season. His starting lineup is almost completely different from the team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year. And it underwent an immediate makeover on opening night following the Hayward injury. Everyone buys what he’s selling, which is the biggest struggle for most NBA coaches. Popovich and Stan Van Gundy would be my next two choices.
Masterson: It feels as trite to say that Gregg Popovich is in the Coach of the Year conversation as it does to say that LeBron James is in the MVP talk, but there is good reason for that. Without Kawhi Leonard and, until Monday night, Tony Parker, Pop has coached San Antonio to the third-best record in the West. The Spurs have been below-league average on offense and near the top of the league on defense, and both sides of the floor will receive a boost upon Leonard’s return. Not that he had much choice, but it helps that Pop felt comfortable handing the keys to LaMarcus Aldridge, who has at times struggled to find a fit in San Antonio. Brad Stevens has done an incredible job with a Celtics team missing one of their presumptive key cogs, but Pop’s navigation of the Spurs through the early stretch of the season has been simply sublime.
Centopani: It comes down to the NBA’s best two coaches, Gregg Popovich and Brad Stevens. On one hand, Popovich has San Antonio humming at third place in the West despite missing a top-5 overall player in Kawhi Leonard. On the other hand, Stevens basically had two-thirds of his roster turned over this summer, lost a star player five minutes into the season and never missed a beat. On the other other hand, I’d follow Coach Pop to the gates of hell … In a tossup, I’ll give it to Stevens since the Celtics have the best record in the league.
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Ladner: Most years, the Spurs winning this many games without their best player would earn Pop the nod here. But Stevens has done an otherworldly job this season. Much like Harden in the MVP discussion, I don’t know how you could pick anyone else at this point.