DraftKings NBA picks December 3: Do we dare fade Harden?

DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 17: Rajon Rondo #9 of the New Orleans Pelicans confers with Head Coach Alvin Gentry as they play the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on November 17, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks December 3: Do we dare fade Harden?

We only have five games on our Sunday still dominated by the ghost of the NFL. Four of those make up the Main DraftKings tournaments. There is an early tournament as well, but with no late swap, there is a 0% chance of me throwing money in there since the 7pm eastern games wont have the lineups out by the lock time. Offering a 50 person late swap tournament is not a solution! The real money makers are the huge GPP tournaments. Why not make those the best experience possible and leave the ones without late swap to the smaller fields?

Point Guards

Best Bet:

Chris Paul ($8,400): Both Curry and Westbrook have tough matchups tonight against teams they have already faced this year. Neither cracked 40 DraftKings points in that first meeting, so I will save money and go with Paul against the NBA equivalent of the run and shoot offense. This is going to be a high scoring and fast paced game against the Lakers. Paul is one of the premier passers in the league, and still gets solid points even with Harden out there. I like his chances far more than Westbrook or Curry.

Honorable Mention:

Jeff Teague ($6,600): Teague was solid in his first game back against a pretty good Thunder team on Friday. I don’t trust Ball against Chris Paul’s great defense, so Teague is the next best option. Teague has a good matchup with the Clippers tonight. The Dallas guards accounted for 66 of the team’s 108 points against the Clippers last night. Expect the talented Minnesota wings to do some damage as well.

Goran Dragic ($6,400): Dragic picked up 29.75 DraftKings points in the first game against the Warriors. However, if this weren’t a small slate, I wouldn’t even take a passing glance at Dragic. He has been ice cold the last three games, going just 7-29 from the floor and only accumulating 47.5 DraftKings points total in those three games. I’m sure Dragic will snap out of it at some point, but I doubt it comes against a team like the Warriors.

Dark Horses:

Kyle Anderson ($5,300): Anderson picked up 26.25 DraftKings points in his first meeting against the Thunder this year. Anderson struggled in the two games against the Grizzlies, but should get back on track here tonight. He is reasonably priced for what he can provide your lineup, making Anderson a solid value play.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,200): Clarkson is a pure shooter who gets plenty of looks as the main scorer for the Lakers second team. His shot isn’t always on, but on a night like tonight, his potential to hit as high as 7x value is going to be too much for GPP players to ignore.

My pick: Teague(PG), Clarkson(G), Anderson(G); Clarkson(PG)

MIAMI, FL – OCTOBER 30: Jimmy Butler #23 of the Minnesota Timberwolves looks on during a game against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena on October 30, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

James Harden ($11,900): Harden’s price jumps on a small slate, but he is also playing one of the worst defensive teams in the league. There is no on else on today’s slate that has anywhere near the potential of Harden. I don’t see enough other strong plays to seriously entertain the idea of fading Harden. His ownership will be high, but you can gain separation elsewhere.

Honorable Mention:

Jimmy Butler ($7,400): I already highlighted what the Dallas perimeter did to the Clippers last night. We also know that he Timberwolves have a lot more talent on the outside than Dallas does. Butler has at least 45 DraftKings points in three of the last four games, so yeah, he’s feeling it. Fading Harden for Butler isn’t a horrible idea, but there should be enough value for you to comfortably fit both in the same lineup.

Klay Thompson ($6,700): Thompson did hit 30 DraftKings points in his first game against the Heat despite being cold from the floor. Thompson is shooting much better from the floor lately, only falling below 45% from the floor once in the last six games. With the prospect of Curry struggling against the Heat again a real possibility, it could be safer to just go with Thompson instead.

Dark Horses:

Wesley Johnson ($4,400): Johnson continues to be a solid fill in for Gallinari, and a consistent producer in the DFS realm. The Clippers desperately need to identify a scorer besides chuckers Lou Williams and Austin Rivers. Johnson may get that chance so long as Gallinari remains out.

Andre Roberson ($3,500): The Thunder have promoted Roberson to the starting lineup, and he has responded with at least 6x value in three of the four games. Roberson does enough on the defensive end to keep his value pretty constant, but he has no upside since he rarely gets a look on the offensive end.

My pick: Harden(SG); Butler(SG), Johnson(G)

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 29: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors waits for play during a 127-123 overtime win over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on November 29, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($9,100): Durant racked up 48 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Heat. His ankle injury that has him on the injury report hasn’t slowed Durant down in the last two games. Durant still put up 93.25 DraftKings points in those two outings. I don’t see a reason to sit him against Miami tonight.

Paul George ($8,200): I get it. I don’t really like to use anyone against the Spurs either. However, George picked up 41.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with San Antonio this year. I have a feeling that quite a few people will ignore George because of the matchup, so we could have 5x value at low ownership from George tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Andrew Wiggins ($6,900): Wiggins is still seeing enough shots to hit well over value at his current price. Wiggins has only been under 32 DraftKings points once in the last seven games. Butler and Wiggins are playi8ng nicely together. Minnesota just needs to figure out how to turn that into wins.

Brandon Ingram ($6,300): Ingram went over 20 points again last night. If Ariza ends up guarding Ingram, I like his matchup a lot less, but with the way Ingram is playing right now, I find it hard to avoid him. Especially with Ingram priced like he is.

Dark Horses:

Kyle Kuzma ($5,300): It looks as though the Lakers are toying with the idea of starting both Kuzma and Nance while moving Ingram out to SG. I fully support this move, especially since Kuzma is a very strong value play with his price in this range. Kuzma picked up a double-double last night, so his back doesn’t seem to be bothering anymore. It looks like Kuzma is good to go tonight as well.

Rudy Gay ($4,700): Remember him? Most of the attention in the absence of Leonard has rightfully gone to Aldridge, but Gay has provided some consistent returns lately. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last four games, and even topped 30 in one of those. If you can’t afford Kuzma, Gay is a solid play without the upside.

My pick: Gay(F); Durant(SF)

DALLAS, TX – NOVEMBER 14: LaMarcus Aldridge #12 of the San Antonio Spurs in the second half at American Airlines Center on November 14, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards

Best Bet:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,100): Aldridge continues to carry the Spurs with Kawhi out. Leonard is at least going through five on five drills now, but as a DFS enthusiast, I’m not in any hurry to see him back. Aldridge consistently hits between 35 and 45 DraftKings points, making him one of my favorite plays for his nice floor and decent upside. LMA picked up 38.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Thunder, so he is a strong play again tonight.

Draymond Green ($7,300): Green continues to be a holy terror on defense, and a stat stuffer everywhere but points. That keeps his DFS floor high and ceiling low. Green is probably better suited for cash games, but on a small slate like tonight, he is warranted in GPP formats as well.

Honorable Mention:

Carmelo Anthony ($6,500): Despite having to tangle with Aldridge, Melo picked up 34.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Anthony’s offensive success will have a lot to do with whether Westbrook struggles again. So you are essentially betting on what kind of game you think Westbrook will have when you decide whether to play Anthony or not.

James Johnson ($5,700): Johnson was a nightmare for the Warriors in the first meeting. He picked up 49.75 DraftKings points in that game. The chances of Johnson blowing up like that again aren’t great, but with Whiteside out, there is a chance that he gets more looks on the inside than normal. I’m a big fan of Johnson at this price.

Dark Horses:

Ryan Anderson ($4,800): Anderson is back in the starting lineup against a team that doesn’t defend the perimeter very well. Anderson may be a power forward, but he spends a lot of time out by the arc. There is potential for him to have a very good game against the Lakers.

Montrezl Harrell ($3,800): Harrell saw his minutes climb into the 20’s again last night. The Clippers are still trying to figure out how to handle life without Blake Griffin. Harrell’s play up front right now could make the decision easier. Harrell has been far more reliable than anyone else the Clippers have thrown at the situation so far. I see his minutes climbing a little more.

My pick: Johnson(PF), Harrell(F); Aldridge(PF), Johnson(F)

DALLAS, TX – NOVEMBER 17: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves at American Airlines Center on November 17, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,300): Towns is facing a depleted Clippers frontcourt right now. He should have dominated the Thunder on Friday, but he didn’t If Towns doesn’t have a superb night in this easy matchup, I may move away from him entirely. With the quality of teammates that Towns has, he no longer has to carry the load. It’s more fun for us in DFS if he does, but it also makes Towns a little more of a risk.

Clint Capela ($7,100): I really doubt that Lopez can stop Capela right now. Capela has three straight games of more than 5x value. I see Capela pushing BroLo around for about 30 minutes and notching another double-double in this one.

Honorable Mention:

DeAndre Jordan ($6,800): Jordan posted big numbers last night, and should continue to against anyone so long as Griffin is out. The defensive apathy of Towns is well renowned in NBA circles. Look for Jordan to pick up some pretty big numbers again tonight. Big enough that I would fade Towns for him because I expect the output to be pretty close.

Steven Adams ($5,600): Adams picked up 29.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Spurs, so he looks like a strong value play again tonight. One thing to note is that Adams is averaging 13 more DraftKings points per game at home than on the road. Most players have some splits, but this is a huge difference. By the way, the Thunder are at home tonight.

Dark Horses:

Pau Gasol ($5,500): Adams is a high energy player, but he isn’t that great of a defender. Gasol picked up 34.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Thunder. That would make Gasol a very strong value play, but Adams has more upside. You really can’t go wrong with either of them though.

Bam Adebayo ($4,200): Adebayo picked up 19.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Warriors because the Heat wanted to go smaller to matchup up better. Adebayo is a lock to start tonight, and with Whiteside out, should see around 30 minutes. That means Adebayo should go well beyond value for this price tonight.

My pick: Jordan(C); Adams(C), Adebayo(UTIL)

Next: NFL DFS Picks for Week 13

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