Can LiAngelo and LaMelo Ball succeed overseas?
Big Baller Brand is at it again. This time, the attention is on the younger Ball brothers, LiAngelo and LaMelo.
News broke yesterday that LiAngelo is leaving the UCLA basketball team, at LaVar Ball’s behest. This came after LiAngelo had been suspended for his shoplifting arrest in China, and he had barely played this season before that as well. Later in the afternoon, the bombshell fell. Per the Vertical, LaMelo will be joining LiAngelo in backing out of commitment with UCLA, and the two will begin exploring playing professionally overseas.
There’s clearly a lot to unpack here. For LiAngelo, this is the conclusion of a tenure at UCLA that has gone about as poorly as one could expect. Following in Lonzo Ball’s footsteps was going to be hard for the 6-foot-5 guard as is, but the China incident killed any hope that he too would be one-and-done as a Bruin before heading to the NBA. The road to the NBA wasn’t going to be easy for him as it was, as he wasn’t as highly touted out of high school, and the suspension sealed the deal that the 2018 NBA Draft wasn’t in the cards.
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It’s LaMelo’s move to professional status that sends shockwaves. The 16-year-old guard is a top recruit in the class of 2019, and some scouts think he could potentially be the most talented player of the trio of brothers. The would-be junior in high school still had two years before he would even be able to head to college, and his move professionally is uncharted territory for NBA Draft scouting, as we’ve never seen multiple years of a highly-touted American player plying his trade overseas prior to the draft.
(This assumes LaMelo won’t try to reclassify to get into the draft earlier, which is another can of speculation worms that is too much to explore right now.)
This all sounds well and good, but can this actually work? It’s a certainty that LaVar thinks it will. He would never consider this for LaMelo if he didn’t think it would. But in practice, this move isn’t going to be as easy as it seems. The international scene isn’t the NCAA, and it definitely isn’t the high school level, where LaVar and his sons were the law of the land at Chino Hills High School and on the AAU circuit. This path is lined with potential land mines, and it will be fascinating to watch the two brothers and their father attempt to navigate them.
The obvious first hurdle is that it’s midseason for pretty much every top-tier basketball league on the planet. Leagues are already underway in Europe, China, Australia and Brazil, meaning roster spots are already hard to come by. This doesn’t make finding a spot impossible, but it significantly reduces the number of available opportunities. It also means that wherever they land, they do not get the benefit of a training camp to get integrated to their new teams and the new country they’ll be living in. This will be learning on the fly in both regards, and that adjustment to living abroad is going to be a major challenge, especially for 16-year-old LaMelo.
The matter of where they land is also going to be fascinating. Not all basketball leagues are created equal, and there are major challenges for both LaMelo and LiAngelo no matter where they end up going. Part of this is because of their styles of play, which are on opposite ends of the spectrum — LaMelo, a shoot-first lead guard, is probably going to have more success than the defense-and-slashing LiAngelo in some leagues, and vice versa. We can probably wager that this is a package deal for the team willing to take LaMelo on, so we have to consider good fits for both players.
That rules out China, for obvious legal reasons. This is a shame because this is the most obvious answer for the younger Ball son. LaMelo would probably be most likely to thrive here, as his lack of shooting conscience and offensive skill set plays extremely well in the CBA. Players like Jordan Crawford and Jimmer Fredette have gone to China and thrived, and that player type is likely LaMelo’s absolute floor. It would probably also be the best off-court transition, as American players are pretty revered in this league, and Chinese League teams, particularly Yao Ming’s Shanghai Sharks, have been useful for NBA prospects trying to simulate the grind and style of the NBA season. The move here would probably be the best fit, although who knows if it’s possible with LiAngelo’s issues in the country.
Europe is the next logical landing spot. The European season is the longest, stretching into April and May, and the vast network of countries with domestic leagues offers plenty of roster spots. If the pair were to land at a Euroleague or Eurocup-level team, that would offer the most exposure possible due to the relatively expansive international TV deals the high-level European leagues have. However, there are several problems with Europe that could make this a nightmare for everyone involved.
European teams are notoriously apprehensive towards playing young players, especially at the high levels. Luka Doncic is the exception here, not the rule. Over the past few seasons, players like Dragan Bender, Frank Ntilikina and Mario Hezonja have played minimal roles despite their lofty NBA Draft projections, and LaMelo is going to have a hard time finding a high-level team that will give him real minutes at the senior level. Given what we know about this family, it’s an expectation that playing time is a prerequisite to any contractual signature.
There’s also the adjustment to life in the European game, which would come as a shock to the system to everyone involved. The team-first, hard-nosed ethos is one that permeates throughout Europe, and the ownership and coaching staff run the show, not the players. That may be a tough transition for the Big Baller Brand. LaMelo definitely isn’t going to be allowed to shoot with impunity and barely pretend to play defense like he was in high school, and LiAngelo’s off-court track record is going to put him on thin ice with any of Europe’s elite coaches. Clashes between LaVar and management are also predictable. Can you imagine the mess to be made by LaVar if his sons experience anything like, say, an 18-hour bus ride back from a loss mandated by ownership? Or if the game checks don’t arrive on time?
That’s not to say there aren’t potential landing spots in Europe. Brandon Jennings found success in the Italian League as an 18-year-old, and gunners like former Laker Andrew Goudelock find success throughout Europe every year. The Israeli League, with its score-first mentality, or a prospect-heavy team like Mega Bemax in Serbia should be high on the Brand’s list of preferred destinations. However, the potential problems that could arise if LaVar aims too high in Europe could easily turn this into a disastrous relationship for everyone involved.
Australia is also an intriguing option. The league is fairly player-friendly, and the exposure there was enough to get Terrence Ferguson drafted in the first round last year, despite a pretty poor statistical performance. This could be an ideal fit for the brothers, as it plays to LaMelo’s strengths as a scorer, allows LiAngelo to develop as a role player and the adjustment to life in another English-speaking country likely isn’t going to be as difficult for them. This is not without problems, though. The league is already through eight of 28 games for the season, and the eight-team league has few roster spots available for players that want to add midseason.
Whatever the choice is for the Ball family, LaMelo and LiAngelo are about to embark on a journey into unprecedented waters for high-level basketball players. The midseason switch from amateur to professional play is going to be a difficult one, and the success both players have in the next couple years will largely depend on where they land and how that destination handles everything that comes with allowing the Big Baller Brand into your facilities. The spectrum of potential outcomes here is vast, from incredible success to spectacularly public failure.
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For LaMelo, who likely has a real NBA future coming, these next two years are going to be incredibly important for his development. His landing spot can’t be a frivolous decision; these factors have to be accounted for in order for him to live up to his potential. This decision will have more drama and more intrigue than any high-profile college recruiting chase, as this probably makes or breaks his chances at the NBA at all. Let’s hope, for the players, the teams and the Brand’s sake, that the family makes a good call.