DraftKings Early NBA picks December 10: Build around Drummond

There are three early games on Sunday, so we have split DraftKings tournaments. We have to get creative to gain separation in this one with just six teams to choose from. There is all sorts of value here, but we may not even need to take advantage of value to roster the players that we want.

Point Guards

Best Bet:

Kyle Lowry ($8,600): Irving has the better matchup, but he only had 34 DraftKings in the first meeting with Detroit. Irving has also been under 5x value in eight of the last ten games. Lowry had hit that mark in seven of the last ten. Sacramento has been better against point guards lately, but Lowry is still playing at a high enough level if you are willing to pay up.

Honorable Mention:

Reggie Jackson ($6,000): Jackson had 33 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Boston. Not only that, but he held Irving to just 34. His inconsistency is tough to deal with, but on a short slate against a team that he has had success against previously, you can do worse.

Dark Horses:

Fred VanVleet ($3,800): If you watch live scoring, VanVleet can be frustrating. He is a fourth quarter warrior. VanVleet has at least 20 DraftKings points in five of the last six games, and has gone over 6x value in two of those. He is a safe value play option.

Cory Joseph ($3,700): Collison has been nursing a knee injury over the last three games. In that span, Joseph has 64 DraftKings points. Collison only has 77points, and 41 of those were in the same game. Joseph is carving out a larger role in the offense, and if Collison can’t go, Joseph would be a must play.

My pick: Jackson(PG), VanVleet(UTIL), Joseph(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Victor Oladipo ($9,000): This is a short slate, so even though Denver is in the top ten defensively against shooting guards, Oladipo is still in play. Oladipo still has at least 5x value in seven of the last ten games. On a slate this small, you have seen me discuss that it wont be about value today. It’s about who can give you the most points at any given position. Oladipo certainly qualifies.

DeMar DeRozan ($8,400): Sacramento has been surprisingly good defending the perimeter considering they run about six different guards out there. DeRozan has between 43 and 47 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. That kind of consistency is worth paying for. Oladipo has higher upside, but DeRozan is the certain value.

Honorable Mention:

Gary Harris ($6,900): Of course, I raved about the consistency of Harris on Firday, and he has his worst game of the last month. He could get back on track against the Pacers tonight. You know that Denver is going to keep running all of their guards with Millsap and Jokic hurt. The potential for value is there for all of them.

Buddy Hield ($5,400): Hield has three straight games of over 32 DraftKings points. He is shooting 20-37 from the floor over that span, which is about what his college numbers were like. Hield is a good enough shooter that he is always a threat to go off. That makes him a great GPP play, especially on a short slate.

Dark Horse:

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($3,800): Hield is riding a hot streak, so you would think that it would take away from the production of Bogdanovic. It hasn’t so far. Bogdanovic has averaged 23.8 DraftKings points per game over the last four games. He doesn’t have the upside of Hield, but Bogdanovic is still in heavy rotation for the Kings. That makes him a decent value play even though he has little upside.

My pick: DeRozan(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Will Barton ($7,200): If you are going to use a Denver guard, Barton is the one with the highest ceiling. He has been over 40 DraftKings points in four of the last six games. The Pacers are a decent defensive team, but good lucky slowing this team down.

Tobias Harris ($6,200): Harris had a big game against Boston in the first meeting, putting up 43.5 DraftKings points in that game. Harris had a strong start to the season, but his old inconsistency reared it’s ugly head, and it has for at least the last month. He doesn’t have the low lows that he used to have, but he still drops below 4x value from time to time. This wont be one of those times.

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($5,900): Tatum has been over 30 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. Detroit isn’t as strong up front as they have been, but Tatum certainly has the ability to get his 30. Just keep in mind that he is an inconsistent rookie.

Dark Horse:

TJ Leaf ($3,000): The Pacers could be very short handed tonight with Lance Stephenson, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Thaddeus Young all showing up on the injury report. If any of the above are out, guys like Joseph and Leaf are going to see more run than usual. If you plan on using Leaf, you have to watch the injury report closely. If all three are out, he is a must play. If two sit, he is a decent option. However, if only one sits, there are better places with less risk to spend your salary.

My pick: Barton(SF), Harris(F)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Zach Randolph ($6,800): Randolph has turned the clock back about five years since Willie Cauley-Stein hit the shelf. The veteran has topped 48 DraftKings points three times in the four games with WCS out. Toronto is solid up front, but I really don’t see them keeping Randolph much under 5x value, if at all.

Serge Ibaka ($5,700): Ibaka was terrible for the first two months of the season. Now he has three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. The Kings are a little thin up front, but Randolph is playing on both ends of the court like he did in his prime. There is risk involved here.

Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($5,300): If Thad Young plays, I want him in my lineup. If not, Sabonis becomes a must play against a battered Denver front. Sabonis stands to see a bump in minutes anyway if Bogdanovic is out, but if Young is out, that is where the real value would lie.

Kenneth Faried ($5,200): The Nuggets moved Faried to the bench, and he responded with a monster game and more minutes that he played as a starter. As long as Denver is going to play Faried at least 25 minutes, there is zero risk involved. He will make value. He is far too talented not to.

Dark Horse:

Mason Plumlee ($4,500): Plumlee has not been consistent even with a start thrown in here and there. His minutes have actually gone down a bit because of what Faried has done, but with the size that Indiana may have down low, the Nuggets will need both Faried and Plumlee more often than not. Plumlee could be a decent play, but there is risk involved.

My pick: Faried(PF)

Center:

Best Bet:

Andre Drummond ($9,100): Horford couldn’t handle Drummond in the first meeting. Drummond had 70.5 DraftKings points in that game. Since then, Durmmond has not been below 35 DraftKings points in any game. Drummond is an elite play on this short slate, even though Boston is usually tough against centers.

Honorable Mention:

Myles Turner ($6,300): Horford couldn’t handle Drummond, nor could he get anything going against him. It appears safer to drop down to Turner against the M*A*S*H* unit that is the Denver frontcourt. Turner has back to back games of 34 or more DraftKings points. He has a great chance for a third today.

Dark Horse:

Jakob Poeltl ($3,600): Valanciunas has been a disaster for the Raptors this year. Fortunately for the Raptors, Poeltl has stepped up lately. Poeltl has averaged 23.3 DraftKings points per game over the last three games. He has a little more consistency than Siakam and Valanciunas. If you are considering going really cheap, Poeltl is a decent option.

My pick: Drummond(C)

Next: DraftKings Main Slate NBA Picks

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