DraftKings NBA picks December 15: Is Giannis The Best Option?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks December 15: Is Giannis The Best Option?
It’s a busy Friday with 11 games in our DraftKings tournament. That means some back to backs, so be aware of resting players. We have a lot of great options tonight and plenty of bargain. What is the best balance of the two?
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The money line last night was impossibly high at 295.5. On a light night! I put two lineups over 280 and still didn’t place. That’s a tough one to swallow. Cauley-Stein and Farrell didn’t have great nights, and they needed to to crack this night.
The winning lineup was actually down to 380.5 DraftKings points, which was seven points above second place! He hit on big value with Bell and Josh Hart and huge games from Towns, KD, and Spencer Dinwiddie.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,400): It’s tough to pay this much for a player on a large slate. It’s even tougher when the player is as inconsistent as Westbrook has been. Westbrook has been under 5x value in five of the last eight games. Of course, he hasn’t been lower than 48, but even if you only get that from someone you pay this much for, it can hurt. Now the good news: the Sixers are bad against the point since they moved Simmons off the ball. We all know what Westbrook is capable of.
Damian Lillard ($9,400): If you have played DFS at all this year, you know how much Orlando has struggled defending the point. Now you get a gut that is sometimes considered among the league’s elite. Lillard sure is against Orlando. He picked up 53.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Magic. Lillard should get back to his 50 DraftKings points self after a hiatus against Miami.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Paul ($8,600): I usually don’t go out of my way to play anyone against the Spurs, but Paul is playing at such a high level that I will make an exception. Paul has 213 DraftKings points in just his last four games. That is easily 6x value and approaching 7x! Temper your expectations against the Spurs, but Paul should still clear 5x value without a problem.
Lou Williams ($7,600): Teodosic is taking minutes from Rivers, not Williams. LouWill racked up 51 DraftKings points against the Wizards a week ago. He likely wont hit that mark again with John Wall playing around 30 minutes, but 6x value is within reach. There are all sorts of poor matchups in the middle tier. Williams looks like one of the better ones.
Kris Dunn ($6,500): I wanted to see how Dunn did against Utah before I took his strong play for something real. After Dunn’s 40.75 DraftKings points on that stingy Jazz defense, I think it’s pretty safe to say that Dunn can produce against anyone. He has become the leader of the Baby Bulls, and I have no reservations about using him at this price against the Bucks.
Dark Horses:
Jamal Murray ($5,600): The Pelicans have struggled defending point guards, especially shoot first point guards. Murray is just that. Murray has 68.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Pelicans this year, and he is fresh off of a 53.5 DraftKings point explosion against Boston on Wednesday. Murray’s value is obviously better if Will Barton is out again, but he may be worth playing anyway.
Andrew Harrison ($4,600): Harrison was huge against the Wizards on Wednesday, racking up 35.75 points. That was good enough for nearly 10x value! Harrison’s ceiling is only about 8x tonight. Are any of you complaining? I didn’t think so. His minutes may shrink a little if Evans plays, but Harrison has been dominating the point minutes for the last week anyway.
Milos Teodosic ($4,500): Teodosic has 49.75 DraftKings points in 46 minutes in two games since his return. With Rivers out with a concussion, Teodosic is going to see a lot of minutes if he keeps playing at this level. He will be in all of my lineups tonight!
My pick: Lillard(PG), Teodosic(G); Harrison(PG), Teodosic(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,400): No, I’m not ignoring the upper tier. I just don’t like Harden against the Spurs and don’t trust Oladipo to hit 45 against the Pistons’ ninth ranked defense against shooting guards. DeRozan has a much better matchup,and could hit what Harden and Oladipo do at a fraction of the cost because of that good matchup.
Khris Middleton ($7,300): Middleton was horrible from the field on Wednesday, yet he still hit value because he can do so much more than score. His upside is capped alongside Giannis, but Middleton is one of the most consistent places to spend your money.
Bradley Beal ($7,200): Beal put up 36.5 DraftKings points even with Wall back against Memphis on Wednesday. He also put up 36 in the first meeting against the Clippers, also with Wall in there. I think we know right about where Beal is going to be tonight.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. McCollum ($6,900): McCollum also had a big game against Orlando the first time around. He put up 40 DraftKings points in that one. Lillard is clearly the alpha of the offense, but he and McCollum have concurrently had big games several times. I don’t mind playing one or both in this good of a matchup. Orlando is pretty awful on the perimeter.
Johnathon Simmons ($6,600): Simmons has back to back games of more than 40 DraftKings points with Evan Fournier out. Fournier is out again, but Portland is a pretty solid defensive team. Don’t expect another 40, but Simmons should flirt with 6x value again.
Gary Harris ($6,400): Harris was a monster with Barton out on Wednesday. Harris has also played well against New Orleans this year. He has 73.75 DraftKings points in the two games against the Pelicans this season. If Barton plays, I tend to think that Murray will see more of a dip than Harris. Harris wont be over 50 again, but 6x value is possible.
Dark Horses:
Caris LeVert ($5,200): There are a lot of places to waste your money in this price range, and I do mean waste. There are a ton of inconsistent options with good matchups, but I would rather go with LeVert. LeVert also has a good matchup. but he is far more consistent than Bazemore or Waiters. The other two have more upside, but I will take my 5.5-6.5x value from LeVert and be happy with it. Instead of 3x value or worse from the other two, marks both have hit in the last week.
Josh Richardson ($4,500): Richardson is also a candidate as a place to waste your money, but Charlotte has really struggled on the wings. Richardson put up 35.5 DraftKings points on the Hornets in the first meeting. The minutes are there for Richardson. In a matchup like this, the production should be too.
Alex Abrines ($3,600): Abrines started two games in the last week, and put up 54.5 DraftKings points in those two games. He seems to be the clear choice to fill in for Andre Roberson again, so sit back and enjoy the value here!
My pick: McCollum(SG); LeVert(SG), Abrines(UTIL)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600): The only thing that could potentially slow down Giannis here is a blowout. He has at least 60 DraftKings points in two straight games. The game with the Bulls wont be a track meet like the last two, but Giannis is a little more of a consistent option than Westbrook if you are going to build around a stud.
Paul George ($7,700): George has struggled lately both before and after a calf injury hobbled him. There is risk involved with George right now. I am willing to look past that because the Sixers are the third worst team in the league against small forwards. George has a great chance to get back on track here.
Honorable Mention:
Otto Porter ($6,500): Porter abused the Clippers in the first meeting, racking up 57.25 DraftKings points in that one. Wall may still not be at his full compliment of minutes, and his shot was rusty on Wednesday. Porter has a legitimate chance to have another big game against the Clippers. His inconsistency makes him a risk though.
Robert Covington ($6,100): Covington missed two games with a bruised back, but he is ready to make his return here. This is not a great matchup against the Thunder, but Covington does match up pretty well here. As usual, he is priced to buy, and his upside is over 40. Covington is a solid GPP option once again.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,900): Aminu’s rebounding ability and expanded role in the offense make him a pretty easy value pick. You wont see any huge games out of Aminu, but he frequently hits 6x value.
Dark Horses:
Wilson Chandler ($4,500): Denver continues to be beaten up at several positions. That has given Chandler the chance to up his minutes. He has responded with at least 25 DraftKings points in three straight games. I like Chandler more if Barton is out again, opening more minutes at small forward. I’m not sure I want to use him banging with the Brow all night.
Trey Lyles ($4,300): Lyles has picked up 82.25 DraftKings points in the last three games with all of the injuries the Nuggets have had to deal with. If Jokic is back, the frontcourt minutes are going to shrinks, so keep an eye on that. It will either be Lyles or Faried that feels the wrath, and we likely wont have any idea who until midway through the game.
My pick: Aminu(SF); Antetokounmpo(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($10,300): Davis really struggled against Denver when they were at full strength. I will take him over Boogie if Jokic plays. If not, both of the towers are in play again. I will take whichever one doesn’t have to deal with Jokic. The other matchup will be a mismatch.
Carmelo Anthony ($6,600): The matchup is right for Melo since the Sixers are the fourth worst team in the league against power forwards. Don’t worry. Melo wont be able to guard Saric either. There is plenty of value at the position if you don’t trust the Brow.
Honorable Mention:
Thaddeus Young ($6,200): Young has 64.25 DraftKings points in two games against Detroit this season. This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Young is about as consistent as they come here, and he has really good upside in the right matchup. It looks to be tonight.
Serge Ibaka ($6,100): Ibaka has turned himself into quite the scorer lately. Ibaka has at least 15 points in each of the last six games. It is no coincidence that Ibaka’s surge in DFS has occurred over that span. This is another strong matchup against the Nets, especially since they refuse to play Jahlil Okafor.
Dario Saric ($5,600): Saric must feel like he won the lottery since he will be back to his normal power forward spot and get to deal with Melo instead of Paul George. Covington will have to deal with George. That leaves Saric free to destroy value tonight against Carmelo.
Dark Horses:
Ersan Ilyasova ($5,200): Ilyasova’s minutes were safe with Collins back since the latter spent a lot of his time in the middle. That is good news for Ilyasova tonight. He will get to deal with a Memphis team that has struggled to stop power forwards this year. Ilyasova and Collins seem to be the only safe bets in the Atlanta frontcourt.
Trevor Booker ($4,300): This is a bit of a risk since Covington is back, but Booker has outplayed Richaun Holmes since his arrival. Booker has at least 26 DraftKings points in every game as a Sixer. That makes him a huge value play backing up both frontcourt positions.
Zach Collins ($3,400): Nurkic returned, and Collins still hit value. That is something the Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh haven’t been able to do consistently at all. Could Collins be the value savior that we have been waiting for in the Portland frontcourt?
My pick: Young(PF), Saric(F); Ilyasova(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
Joel Embiid ($9,800): Cousins has averaged over 50 DraftKings points in his two games against Denver. Of course, 81 of those came in the game that Jokic and Anthony Davis both missed. It’s much safer to drop down to Embiid. Embiid has produced against everyone. He wasn’t even that far under value against Drummond. I trust Embiid a lot more than Boogie tonight.
Andre Drummond ($9,100): Drummond had one of his worst games of the season against Denver. He should be able to get back on track against the Pacers, who have allowed the most fantasy points to centers this season. If you are fading Embiid, Drummond is a solid pivot. He has 92 DraftKings points in two games against the Pacers this year.
Honorable Mention:
Dwight Howard ($8,100): Howard has been playing at a high level lately. He has at least 35 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. Howard struggled in the first meeting with Miami, but Whiteside was in there for that one. Whiteside is still out, so look for Howard to haul down 20 boards tonight. Everything else is gravy.
Marc Gasol ($7,900): This is a good matchup for Gasol against a depleted Hawks frontcourt. It’s not as bad as it was last week, but the Hawks still don’t have anyone that can guard Gasol. Dedmon at least had a chance. The others don’t.
Nikola Jokic ($7,700): Jokic was held out of Wednesday despite the fact that he was thought to be a go. That’s Mike Malone for you. The bad part about this is that we likely wont know the absolute status of Jokic before the classic tournaments lock, so you are putting faith in Malone that he will actually play him this time. If he does, Jokic put up 38.75 DraftKings in his only matchup with Boogie.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,400): Jordan continues to be a force with Blake Griffin out. He has topped 6x value four times in six Griffin-less games. Jordan is the constant for those of you that don’t want to take a chance on Denver’s rotation or Gasol playing enough in what should be a blowout.
Dark Horses:
John Collins ($5,500): Collins posted a double double in his first game back last night in what also looked to be a tough matchup. Temper your expectations against Memphis, but Collins will get as many minutes has he can handle. 5x value wont be a problem.
Jonas Valanciunas ($4,900): It’s the same old story here. Ride Valanciunas while he is hot, because he will go cold for a month after this. His inconsistency is tough to put up with, but he has a great matchup with Brooklyn and he has 81 DraftKings points over the last two games. Valanciunas could be a great value play tonight.
Jahlil Okafor ($4,000): The Nets are insane for not playing Okafor. Why did they trade for him then? I don’t get it. One of these days, they will come to their senses. When they do, I’m on board.
My pick: Jordan(C), Valanciunas(UTIL); Embiid(C), Collins(F)
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