NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 15 Top Picks and Plays
NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 15 Top Picks and Plays:
Top Projected Team Totals (as of 12/15): New Orleans – 31.75, New England – 28.5, Atlanta – 27.5, Minnesota – 26.5, Pittsburgh – 25.5, Seattle – 25
Underpriced NFL DFS Value Plays:
Kenyan Drake – MIA (RB) – FanDuel
While it may have taken awhile for Adam Gase to figure out what he has in Kenyan Drake, Drake has smashed in his few lead back opportunities. Drake is extremely cheap on FanDuel this week and should be chalky on both sites. Drake has gotten over 20 rush attempts in the past two games and has a safe floor given his pass catching ability. Drake will face a Buffalo defense that has been bludgeoned on the ground since dealing Marcell Dareus.
Mike Davis – SEA (RB) – DraftKings
The year long carousel of Seattle running backs has landed on Mike Davis for the time being and after facing two difficult matchups, he could be poised for a big day, this week. Davis is only $4000 on DraftKings, which is hard to ignore. LA’s defense ranks 3rd in DVOA, however their run defense ranks 19th (Football Outsiders).
Adam Thielen – MIN (WR) – FanDuel
Adam Thielen was already an attractive option on FanDuel, at $7600, but with the recent news of Kyle Rudolph being out, Thielen could see a bump in targets. He’s seen double digit targets in seven games this year and offers both safety and upside.
NFL DFS Exploitable Matchups:
Le’Veon Bell – PIT (RB)
In what figures to be the marquee matchup of the weekend, we could see a concerted effort to get Le’Veon Bell the ball. While Pittsburgh is one of the most pass happy offenses in the league, they’ll square off against a New England run defense that ranks 32nd in efficiency (Football Outsiders). There’s no doubt that sets up as a prime bounce back spot for New England, but Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball as well and they would be wise to do that on the ground. Belichick is notorious for eliminating the opponents best player, and while you can make arguments that it could be either Bell or Brown, I’m predicting that New England will do everything they can to avoid giving up big plays through the air.
Zach Ertz – PHI (TE)
Zach Ertz has cleared the concussion protocol and looks like he’ll be back for a divisional matchup against the Giants. Obviously the injury to Wentz will play a role, but I think the public is underestimating Foles’ talent. Foles has sufficient arm talent, but unlike Wentz, he’s not very mobile. Therefore, I think we’ll see a steady dose of dump offs to Ertz. The Giants have been beat up by opposing tight ends all year, giving up 3.7 PPR points above opponent average at the position (@Beerswater).
NFL DFS Changes in Workload:
Jordy Nelson – GB (WR)
Jordy Nelson will get his partner in crime back this week, and hopefully it will remedy his recent struggles. Nelson wasn’t able to get much of anything done with Hundley under center, but I would look for him to revert back to his normal usage with Rodgers back. Rodgers and Nelson have a unique ability to think on the same page when plays breakdown, which usually leads to explosive plays or touchdowns for Jordy.
Hot Takes:
Rams and Seahawks score over a combined 50 points
These hot takes haven’t been so hot of late and trust me my bankroll reflects that. Nevertheless, we trust the process and move forward, but you have been warned in advance.
After losing what could be a potential playoff preview to the Eagles, the Rams will head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks, who are fighting for their playoff lives. While it’s often weighed far to heavily in the public’s handicapping, this game is basically, “the season” for the Seahawks. They need this win badly, but are without some key cogs on defense.
As if losing Cam Chancellor and Richard Sherman weren’t enough, the trip to Jacksonville did no favors for this defense. Both K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner will miss this week’s game against the Rams. Yes playing in Seattle has historically been a daunting task for opposing teams, but this defense is currently a shell of themselves. The Ram’s have a few matchups on offense that they can exploit and Goff will also get back one his favorite targets back, Robert Woods.
On the other side of the ball, no matter the circumstances, Russell Wilson always seems to get the job done. As we see with other mobile quarterbacks, his ability to improvise outside of the pocket, makes him close to matchup proof. While it was two tough matchups against Jacksonville and Philadelphia, Mike Davis has also offered a glimmer of hope for the Seattle running game. The Rams are susceptible on the ground, ranking 19th in run DVOA (Football Outsiders). It’s also important to note that LA will be without their starting corner, Kayvon Webster.
Le’Veon Bell records over 30 DraftKing’s points
While the matchup looks terrific for the Pittsburgh running game this week, it’s no secret that Bill Belichick has run circles around the coaching of Mike Tomlin. Even though the game plan should be to lean on the run, it’s important to remember that this is the same Steelers team who decided to throw the ball 55 times against Jacksonville.
I touched on how I believe that New England will aim to eliminate Brown, which is one of the reason why I would look to roster Bell over Brown. With Bell getting upwards of 10 targets per game, in addition to his carries, it difficult for Brown to outscore him, unless he connects on explosive plays or finds the endzone. This year, the New England defense has an average explosive run rate of 12%, the 26th worst in the league, whereas they have an average explosive pass rate of 8%, the 11th best in the league (Sharpfootballstats.com). Playing the “bend but don’t break” style has been the Patriots game plan for most of the year and it’s reflected in numbers above.
It’s also important to note that New England will be without one of their top run stoppers, Alan Branch. Branch has played limited snaps this season, but has been arguably their best run defender.
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