Russell Westbrook has not played like an MVP

Russell Westbrook took the NBA by storm last season, becoming just the second player in league history to average a triple-double over the course of a full season and capturing his first MVP award. But ultimately, it hardly mattered when taken in the context of the championship picture. The Thunder spent their season caught up in a gimmick that never earnestly threatened the hierarchy of the Western Conference.

This year, with superior surrounding talent and a more realistic chance of contending, Westbrook has been a faint outline of his 2017 self. His turnover rate is up, and though again averaging close to a triple-double, he hasn’t played this inefficiently since his second year in the league. Westbrook has struggled to mesh with a new cast of teammates and appears unwilling to relinquish much of the absolute control he desires.

This season has undoubtedly been a disappointing one, and from a statistical standpoint, it might be unprecedented.

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Since 1977 — the first season after the NBA/ABA merger — Westbrook has had perhaps the largest statistical regression from an MVP season in history. Over the last 41 seasons*, no reigning MVP has seen his efficiency and advanced metrics regress the way Westbrook has this year. His points per 100 possessions, true shooting percentage, player efficiency rating and win shares per 48 minutes have all dropped off by larger percentages than those any MVP since the merger. Only Moses Malone has had a more negative year-to-year disparity in Box Plus-Minus.

*Excluding 1979 and 1999. Bill Walton, the 1978 MVP did not play due to a foot injury and Michael Jordan retired (for the second of three times) after his final MVP season in 1998.

In fairness to Westbrook, his BPM and Value Over Replacement Player numbers from 2017 set impossibly high standards, and his projected numbers in those categories would place him close to the middle of the pack among defending MVPs. But his marks in nearly every other statistical category have been among the worst of any player coming off an MVP season. His 48.4 true shooting percentage is well below the league average, and no player has ever scored fewer points per 100 possessions while using as many possessions as Westbrook is this year.

He will likely be in the All-Star game because of the fan and player votes, and might turn things around in time to justify votes from the media. But at this rate, it’s fair to wonder if Westbrook has been one of the six best guards in the West. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar remains the only player to play in the season following an MVP campaign and not make the All-Star team, but he missed the first 20 games of the 1977-78 season due to a hand injury. Westbrook would probably be on the fringes of the All-NBA discussion if voting were held today.

None of this is meant to re-evaluate last year’s MVP race or criticize Westbrook’s performance in 2017. To retroactively use this year as a way to cheapen Westbrook’s MVP would be to irresponsibly ignore context and circumstance. Certainly integrating George and Anthony into the mix has had something to do with the difference in Westbrook’s numbers. It would be unreasonable to expect him to repeat his ridiculous production from a year ago given the abilities of his new teammates.

But while some difference in the quantity of his output was to be expected, the decline in efficiency is concerning. Westbrook’s shooting numbers are close to career-worsts across the board. Playing alongside other All-Stars should have the opposite effect. He hasn’t gotten to the free-throw line this infrequently since 2012, and his relatively accurate 3-point shooting last year is proving to be an aberration. He’s been almost neutralized as a pick-and-roll playmaker.

Odds are the Thunder will reverse course and realize their expected greatness, if only in part. The trio of Westbrook, George and Anthony has yet to learn how to coexist and maximize the each player’s capabilities, which has resulted in an awkward and disjointed offense. Fewer forced shots, more fluid ball-movement and a better understanding of one another’s tendencies should yield smoother assembly of offense. Westbrook has been a top-10 — maybe less — player in the NBA, and though underwhelming in his defense of the MVP title, still had to earn it in the first place.

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Any stylistic or psychological shift must start with Westbrook, who determines Oklahoma City’s identity and has been the one constant through the franchise’s many alterations. The Thunder are 13-14, just outside the playoff picture in the West. The clock is ticking on this group to put the pieces together and push back toward the top of the conference, and it’s incumbent upon Westbrook to set that change into motion.