Fantasy Baseball 2018 Bargain Bin: Is Nick Williams a Valuable Commodity?
Overlooked by the glut of Philadelphia Phillies rising offensive stars, Nick Williams shouldn’t fly under the radar for 2018.
Citizens Bank Park, home of the Phillies, garners fantasy baseball praise for being an arena adapt for the long ball. Enter Nick Williams. While his debut was slightly overshadowed by Rhys Hoskins, Williams put together a productive 2017.
Slashing .288/.328/.473, Williams value to the standard fantasy player seems obvious. He’s a starting outfielder with batting average upside. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, he has the length to generate lots of bat speed. This bat speed generated an average exit velocity of 88.1 MPH. Williams’ 20% HR/FB ratio borders on elite and could pay massive dividends if he can generate more fly balls.
There’s a reason ESPN ranks Nick Williams as the 86th-best outfielder for the 2018 season: batted ball profile. While only a 343 PA sample at the ML level, he has a history of underwhelming flyball numbers. Only 27.3% of his contact classified as a fly ball, but his average exit velocity rose to 91 MPH on those fly balls.
The Comp
While his fly ball numbers are a clear negative, Williams’ has a lot to like about him. Take a look at these two players:
| 2017 MLB Season | Plate Appearances | LD% | GB% | FB% | Home Runs | Hard% |
| Nick Williams | 343 | 23.2% | 49.5% | 27.2% | 12 | 33.6% |
| Michael Brantley | 375 | 22.3% | 49.3% | 28.4% | 9 | 33.9% |
As you can see, Brantley and Williams had similar batted ball profiles in 2017. Brantley is only ranked 76th among outfielders per ESPN, but I see him as a starting point for Williams. At his basic, he should be at least as valuable as Brantley, but a small change in launch angle could thrust Williams into fantasy baseball relevancy.
Next: Phillies sign Carlos Santana
Currently projected by Roster Resource as the Phillies number three hitter, Williams could find himself in the heart of a powerful lineup. Eighty runs scored and 80 runs driven in are in play for the Phillies outfielder. Chip in double-digit home runs, a couple of steals, a .275 batting average (.330 wOBA), and you are left with an undervalued back-of-the-draft corner outfielder.