DraftKings NBA picks December 20: Will Paul outscore Westbrook?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks December 20: Will Paul outscore Westbrook?
We are almost full tonight with 24 of the 30 teams in action! That means a few back to backs, so watch out for resting players. We also have a ton of great options. Where do we even start to sort through this? Let’s attack some good matchups.
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The money line last night was down to 252.5, and yours truly was right on that thing. Kelly Oubre and Jameer Nelson ruined what was an otherwise solid night.
The winning lineup was only 308.75 DraftKings points. He got value out of Mike Scott, John Henson, and Frank Mason so he could use both Giannis and LeBron.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Chris Paul ($9,800): The Rockets are undefeated with Chris Paul on the court, so you know he has been a DFS monster. Paul has at least 40 DraftKings points in eight straight games, and was only under 50 in three of those. I would much rather roll with Paul against the Lakers that Westbrook against the Clippers. And Paul is $1,600 less!
Kris Dunn ($7,200): I would rather not play Lillard against the Spurs, so I will go with the scorching hot Dunn. Dunn has averaged 35.8 DraftKings points in December. He has also topped the 40 DraftKings points threshold four times this month. You aren’t going to find a player playing any better than Dunn at this price!
Honorable Mention:
Jamal Murray ($5,700): Murray has been one of Denver’s best offensive players since the calendar flipped to December. Hordes of point guards have terrible matchups, yet all of them could have higher ownership than Murray. The Timberwolves don’t defend the point well, so Murray should have plenty of open shots to hit.
Austin Rivers ($5,700): I like Rivers only if Lou Williams is out again. The Clippers seem content to roll Teodosic out as the starter, and this backcourt is quite crowded when healthy. However, more minutes should be open with LouWill questionable and Beverley still out.
Milos Teodosic ($5,200): This is an awfully high price to pay for an unproven commodity. In fact, Teodosic has yet to clear 5x value for this price in his NBA career! Having Teodosic priced this high virtually destroys whatever sleeper value he has. That said, this is a great matchup against the Suns, and Teodosic could break out tonight.
Dark Horses:
Isaiah Canaan ($4,500): Tired of flipping a coin to see which Phoenix point guard to use? Those days are over with the arrival of Canaan. He has 67.25 DraftKings points in his two games as a Sun. He has been light years better than both Mike James and Tyler Ulis. Canaan is the guy you want from that backcourt mess in the desert.
Andrew Harrison ($4,100): Don’t let one bad game against one of the better defenses in the league throw you off of Harrison. Lots of people struggle against Boston. Harrison gets a matchup against the Warriors, who more closely resemble an ER than the defending championship team. I love Harrison at this price and in this situation.
Dejounte Murray ($4,100): Murray should get plenty of run tonight with Tony Parker resting. Murray has three straight games of over 20 DraftKings points, and has over 80 DraftKings points in his last two starts with Parker or Mills out. Here is another fantastic value play at a position that is relatively weak at the top as far as matchups go tonight.
My pick: Paul(PG); Dunn(PG), Harrison(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Victor Oladipo ($9,200): Harden is still putting up point totals in the high 40’s or low 50’s, but that still isn’t 5x value. I would rather roll with Oladipo tonight, who is taking on the league’s worst shooting guard defense in the Hawks. Oladipo has topped 50 DraftKings points in four of the last nine games, and two of those were above 60. He is capable of huge nights, and could have one against Atlanta so long as it isn’t a blowout.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,300): Jimmy Butler has been awesome lately, but Denver has really pestered wings lately. With so many other options on that team, I expect Butler to come in under value. DeRozan gets Charlotte, who is the second worst team in the league against shooting guards. You can stack both Oladipo and DeRozan to really attack wings tonight if you so choose!
Honorable Mention:
Jonathon Simmons ($6,900): Simmons has been lighting it up lately, but that could be because the Magic are a little beat up. What we have to worry about here is the status of Fournier, who was limited at practice yesterday. If Fournier returns, Simmons’ value takes a hit I don’t want to incur at this price. If Fournier is still out, I like Simmons even at this price.
Kent Bazemore ($6,500): Can we trust this? Bazemore has at least 40 DraftKings points in four of the last six games and a very nice matchup with Indiana tonight. We have seen this from Bazemore before. He has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career, then promptly falls back to earth quickly and unceremoniously. Ride him while he’s hot, I guess!
Justin Holiday ($5,200): Holiday carried the Bulls through parts of November, but had been eerily quiet since his return. That ended on Monday night with Holiday dropping 35 DraftKings points on the Sixers. He wont put up any huge games with Kris Dunn around, but Holiday could still be a steal at this price. Guys like KCP and LeVert have solid matchups as well, but I like Holiday’s upside more.
Dark Horses:
Mario Hezonja ($4,700): Hezonja has been joining the starting rotation with Aaron Gordon out. Gordon is out for at least tonight as well. That means Hezonja should be back in the starting lineup again. He has racked up 90.25 DraftKings points over his last two starts. He is one of the better value plays around tonight.
Buddy Hield ($4,700): It was Hield that benefitted the most from the absence of George Hill last night. Temple and Mason were serviceable, but Hield lit it up from outside, and could do the same against Brooklyn tonight to long as the minutes are still available. They should be with Hill out again.
Lance Stephenson ($4,300): The matchup is right for Stephenson, but his production hasn’t been as consistent as we would like. Still, a value play against the Hawks is one of the safest once, especially if its a bench option that could see more run than usual if the game gets out of hand.
My pick: Oladipo(SG), Hezonja(G), Hield(UTIL); Hezonja(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Kevin Durant ($11,600): This is a bit of a tough one, but Durant has been unstoppable with Curry and Draymond Green out. Green has not practiced, but he has not been ruled out either. My guess is that Draymond is out at least one more game. There is no sense hurrying him back, not with Durant dominating like he is. KD has 262.25 DraftKings points over the last four games. That is the best total of anyone in the league over that span.
Paul George ($7,400): I’m not all that crazy about using anyone against Utah. You already know this. George at least deserves a look since he put up 68 DraftKings points over two games against Utah already this year. I trust George to get more value per dollar than Westbrook tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Harrison Barnes ($6,700): Barnes had a nice game against the Suns on Monday, and has a chance to do the same against Detroit. The Pistons have not defended the forward positions well at all this year. If Dennis Smith returns, it could cut into Barnes’ scoring, but he should make up for that in rebounds.
Nicolas Batum ($5,700): Batum has quietly put up at least 25 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games. In fact, the that game that Batum was under 25 was against the Raptors. It took Batum a while to get on track after missing the first six weeks of the season with an injury. Batum is finally back to about where you would expect him with his trademark consistency on display.
Rudy Gay ($5,400): Gay’s last start with Kawhi resting resulted in 35.75 DraftKings points. Gay was starting to get comfortable with his new team right about the time that Leonard got healthy. The good part is that Gay is still capable of really good games for the price when Leonard rests.
Dark Horses:
Trey Lyles ($4,800): Lyles has been outstanding since Paul Millsap went down. He is the preferred alternative to Millsap with Faried and Wilson Chandler having to fight for what is left over. Lyles has only been under 20 DraftKings points once since Millsap went down, and that’s because he couldn’t guard Aaron Gordon.
Stanley Johnson ($4,000): Johnson is a solid punt play in the right situation. This looks to be one of those against Dallas. The Mavs are not great against small forwards if Harrison Barnes spends most of his time at the four. That would seem to be the case tonight, so Johnson should have no problems hitting 20 DraftKings points for the third straight game.
Jonas Jerebko ($3,700): Who gets Melo? That is the million dollar question with Favors seemingly on the doubtful side of questionable and Rudy Gobert still out. Who is going to start at power forward? The sleeper could be Jerebko. He has done well off of the bench this year, and could fit the bill of a four due to his rebounding prowess. The bad part is that the Utah starting lineup likely wont be announced by tournament lock. Get it together, DraftKings! Even your hockey tournaments have late swap! The NBA are the only ones that don’t!
My pick: Batum(SF), Lyles(F); Gay(SF), Durant(PF), Batum(UTIL)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,800): I wont play LMA with Kawhi in there unless it is a matchup that I can’t refuse. Aldridge will get a crack at his former team while the focal point of the Spurs offense. He should be in the 40’s for DraftKings points again, which is the normal with Leonard out.
Nikola Mirotic ($6,400): Lauri who? Mirotic has at least 37 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. Now he gets an Orlando team without Aaron Gordon. This is another great matchup for Mirotic. There really is no sense paying top dollar for someone else. Mirotic should have a great night. The Bulls have three power forwards, an they aren’t afraid to use them. All three of them hit 6x value against Philly on Monday. The Bulls find a way to feed all three of them.
Honorable Mention:
Thaddeus Young ($6,200): I don’t trust Tobias Harris, so I will go back to old faithful, Thad Young. Young has had a bit of a rough go with Brooklyn and Boston, but this matchup with Atlanta will get him back on track. The Hawks can’t guard the three or the four, so it wont matter where Young plays. Come to think of it, the Hawks can’t really guard the one, two, or five either….
Taj Gibson ($5,900): Opposing power forwards have been beating on Denver’s depleted frontcourt. There is a chance that Taj could do the same. However, the Timberwolves have so many offensive threats that they don’t just need to keep pounding a weakness. Gibson may not have as much of an advantage as some others have.
Carmelo Anthony ($5,800): Melo stunk up the joint on Monday against his former team. Using him here would seem counter-intuitive, but Utah is absolutely destroyed up front. They have hardly anything left! Melo has 68.75 DraftKings points in two games against Utah already this year, and they were at full strength up front. Anthony actually looks like a pretty solid value here.
Dark Horses:
John Collins ($5,300): Collins still isn’t starting, but he is playing enough to easily hit value in the right matchup. the Pacers are the worst team in the league on the interior, so Collins can do some serious damage in his 25 minutes of court time tonight that also means Ilyasova is a strong play tonight as well.
Jordan Bell ($4,700): The Warriors are chock full of value picks with all of the injuries, but many of them pose a sizeable risk tonight. Both Draymond and Zaza Pachulia are listed as questionable. This situation likely wont be resolved until well after lock (don’t get me started again). That takes away a potential huge value in Bell and Omri Casspi. I’m not opposed to playing both like I did on Monday if both Green and Pachulia are out.
Jordan Mickey ($3,700): Both James Johnson and Justise Winslow are out again, which means Mickey should earn another start. The Heat prefer Olynyk off the bench, so insert Mickey, who has 71.75 DraftKings points starting the last three games. That is over 7x value!
My pick: Mickey(PF); Mickey(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400): This matchup with the Bulls isn’t the best one, but Vucevic has dominated the middle with Gordon out. Vucevic has only been under 5x value, even at tonight’s price, once in the last eight games. He has also topped 60 four times in that span. That is dominance, folks. I’m not sure the Bulls can slow him down at this point.
Andre Drummond ($9,100): The Mavs are weak in the middle, and Drummond is the best rebounder on the planet. Mostly because Dennis Rodman and Dikembe Mutombo are in their 50’s. Dallas doesn’t really have anyone to get in Drummond’s way, so this could be a big night for the big man.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Jokic ($8,100): You have to be willing to take a sizeable risk here with Jokic. Towns does not defend the interior well at all, but Jokic is still only playing about 25 minutes a game. Can Jokic hit 40 DraftKings points in half the game? If he can, it would likely be against Towns.
Dwight Howard ($7,600): Howard has dominated teams that are small on the interior. The Raptors fit that bill. Howard put up 42 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting. Toronto has been fairly tough on the interior lately, but I’m still not sure they can put the clamps on Howard.
Clint Capela ($7,400): The Suns centers gave Jordan all sorts of trouble earlier this year, so I will move to Capela, who may not have to tangle with Brook Lopez tonight. Capela was huge against the depleted Jazz on Monday. He could build on that here.
Dark Horses:
Alex Len ($5,600): We’ve seen this before. Len has at least 30 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. He even pushed Monroe into aDNP-CD on Monday night. So long as Len is hot, he will be in there. Len even put up 28.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Clips and a healthy Griffin. This looks like a great place for Len. Which means he will likely wind up in single digits.
Ekpe Udoh ($4,300): Udoh was pushed around by Capela on Monday, but he held his own against Cleveland and Boston. Steven Adams is still not able to practice, so he is probably closer to doubtful than probable tonight. If Adams is out, Udoh could have a really good game for his price point.
Kosta Koufos ($3,600): That is now five straight games of at least 5x value for Koufos. If for some reason you really need to go cheap tonight, Koufos is one of the best bets in this range.
My pick: Capela(C), Howard(C)
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