DraftKings NBA picks December 21: LeBron is an elite play
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks December 21: LeBron is an elite play
After a huge night last night, a five game DraftKings tournament seems tiny. There is value hiding in here though, even though there is only one big star playing tonight (for sure, anyway). However, we have a nice second tier of players, so value plays are still nice to have.
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The money line last night was up just a bit to 255.25. My lineups struggled thanks to Chris Paul leaving the game. In all fairness, he didn’t play that well when he was in there. Kevin Durant also had a way under par game. The only thing that saved a complete embarrassment was Kris Dunn.
The winning lineup was very high at 369.75. You usually don’t see it that high with the money line that low. He avoided all the pitfalls, and has the huge games from Kelly Olynyk, Kyle Kuzma, Ariza, and Harden.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Ben Simmons ($9,500): Simmons “only” put up 42.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Toronto, but if Embiid is out again, Simmons could boost his production a little. However, I am leery about the whole Sixers team. This is their third game in four days. The only one I will really be all in on is Embiid if he is able to play. This culminates a brutal stretch for this team, so fatigue could be a factor.
Kyrie Irving ($8,700): Irving goes and puts up pretty big numbers on teams like Utah and Denver, then struggles against Memphis (without Conley) and the Pacers, who are fairly weak outside. His inconsistency is maddening. However, on a short slate, he at least deserves some consideration.
Kyle Lowry ($8,600): And now I present Kyle Lowry, who like the other two above him didn’t hit 5x value in the first meeting with tonight’s opponent. In fact, Lowry and Irving barely hit 4x value in those games! However, the numbers favor both of them against tonight’s opponent. How much do you trust numbers and how much do you trust past stats?
Honorable Mention:
Kris Dunn ($7,300): Dunn put up 31.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Cleveland, which is a shade under value at this price. However, the Bulls as a whole are playing well lately. Their winning streak it now at seven games, and it’s no coincidence that it is right in line with Dunn’s recent performance and the return of Mirotic. Most Bulls players are worth a look here, but it definitely starts with Dunn.
Dark Horses:
Isaiah Canaan ($4,800): Canaan continues to outperform everyone else in the Phoenix backcourt, even in less minutes. Ulis still starts, but Canaan will still see a pretty large allotment of the backcourt minutes. All three of them struggled against the Clippers, but should find the matchup tonight against Memphis more to their liking.
Andrew Harrison ($4,000): Harrison finds himself in a very favorable matchup with a very low price. Phoenix is awful against point guards, so dust yourself off from Harrison’s failure last night and throw him right back out there.
My pick: Dunn(PG), Harrison(G); Harrison(UTIL)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,800): DeRozan lit up Charlotte last night, which should come as no surprise. Now he gets a Philadelphia team that is worn out and similarly weak on the wing. Luwawu-Cabarrot could put up slightly more resistance than Redick, but it likely wont matter either way. DeRozan borders on an elite play tonight.
Tyreke Evans ($7,600): Evans is finally eligible the point, just in time for a Conley return. All it does is off a little more roster flexibility. I personally preferred his SF eligibility since point guard is usually pretty loaded. That said, it doesn’t matter where he plays tonight, just as long as he is in the lineup. Phoenix is bad everywhere.
Honorable Mention:
Alec Burks ($4,700): Burks stuffed the stat sheet last night with extended run with Donovan Mitchell out even though he didn’t start. Mitchell looks to be out again tonight, so fire up Burks. Rodney Hood will likely start, but he did literally nothing else last night except score. Nothing. I’ll take Burks and his across the board production for a fraction of the cost.
Denzel Valentine ($4,100): Winning is contagious, and it seems to be waking Valentine from his extended slump since Holiday returned. Valentine had a double-double last night against Orlando, and gets to tee off on a Cleveland team that still doesn’t defend well. For this price, Valentine is worth taking a shot on.
Dark Horses:
Frank Ntilikina ($4,000): Ntilikina rebounded after a horrid game against the Thunder over the weekend. He wasn’t quite at 5x value, but he was close enough that he is worth using as a bargain play tonight. If you want to play both DeRozan and LeBron, you will need value plays like this one.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,400): This is only a play if Redick misses the game. Luwawu-Cabarrot is not a very consistent play, but Toronto has struggled on the wings. You shouldn’t need to go this cheap tonight, but he is there if you need him.
My pick: Burks(SG); Burks(PG), DeRozan(SG), Ntilikina(G)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
LeBron James ($11,900): LeBron put up another 60 spot on the stingy Bucks on Tuesday. Now, the Bulls are playing very well right now, but I’m not sure they can stop the King. LeBron will get his. And in this case, his will be a ninth straight game of more than 60 DraftKings points. Fade him at your own risk.
Honorable Mention:
Robert Covington ($6,200): This is a tough matchup for Covington, but if Redick is out, Covington could see some more outside shots. However, it will take some stones to start him against Toronto. I will feel better about this if Covington plays more down low, but that wont happen if Redick is out.
T.J. Warren ($6,100): Warren’s role hasn’t increased with Devin Booker out, but he is still producing like he did when Booker was there. Defenses are keying more on Warren, and there aren’t enough other weapons out there to stop them from doing that. Still, DraftKings doesn’t punish shooting percentages. However many shots it takes for Warren, we don’t care just as long as the production is there. He had a huge game last night, but temper expectations against Memphis.
Dark Horses:
Justin Holiday ($5,600): Holiday struggled a bit from the floor last night. That has been his issue since his return. Holiday has yet to find the consistency that led him to a hot start to the season. Valentine picked up the slack last night, and remains a cheaper dart throw. If you are playing someone in this price range, you do expect some level of production. You may or may not get that with Holiday, but his upside keeps us coming back.
OG Anunoby ($3,600): Anunoby put up a career high 20 points in a career high 31 minutes last night. The Raptors have brought him along slowly, but this may finally be paying off. Anunoby is starting, and now has back to back games of 6 value. This is a good matchup for the Sixers, so don’t be surprised if Anunoby continues his strong play here.
My pick: James(SF), Anunoby(F); James(SF), Anunoby(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900): Porzingis says he is playing, but he’s not a doctor. The Knicks will likely be careful with their star, but if Porzingis is playing tonight, I want him in my lineups. Boston is awful against power forwards. They got eaten alive by Kelly Olynyk last night. What do you think a well rested Porzingis will do to them?
Kevin Love ($8,300): The Bulls have three good power forwards, but they are all offensive minded. Love has 85.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls so far this year. Love has been able to get his even with LeBron dominating like he is. This is something that didn’t happen early in the relationship. Their ability to coexist has taken the Cavs to a different level.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Mirotic ($6,700): He may not be starting, but Mirotic is a double-double machine off the bench. He is outplaying both Markkanen and Bobby Portis. This could be one of those situations where he is too valuable off the bench to put him in as a starter, but the minutes are clearly there. Cleveland has been awful against power forwards, so all three could have a big night. I think I prefer Mirotic over the other two for now though.
Serge Ibaka ($5,900): Ibaka came back even better than he had been playing before missing Monday’s game. That was Ibaka’s fourth 20 point effort in the last the last six games. He has also scored in double figures in every December game. Ibaka could be a steal for as long as he is this cheap.
Dark Horses:
Trevor Booker ($4,600): It’s hard to decide just who is going to produce with Joel Embiid out. There is widespread speculation that Embiid will sit again tonight so he can play on Christmas Day. I am buying into that, so now the question is who to use? Richaun Holmes is the same price and he starts, but Booker has done a great job in limited minutes. I personally prefer Booker against the backups than Holmes against Ibaka.
Chandler Parsons ($3,900): The veteran is largely forgotten in Memphis due to his starting the season on IR and having his minutes limited. He rested last night, so Parsons should be good for his 24-27 minutes that he is being allotted lately. Parsons Has at least 20 DraftKings points in six of seven games. He is an outstanding value play, but doesn’t have much for upside.
My pick: Love(PF), Booker(UTIL); Parsons(PF), Porzingis(C)
Center:
Best Bet:
Marc Gasol ($8,200): Gasol has put up huge numbers against weaker interior teams. Phoenix certainly fits that bill. They are going to throw Chandler at him and maybe even Monroe, but it wont matter. Gasol has a legitimate shot at 50 tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Jonas Valanciunas ($5,400): Jonas was quiet last night with Ibaka’s huge night, but tonight’s matchup against Philly favors Valanciunas more. Especially if Embiid sits again. Valanciunas was putting up some big numbers before last night. He has favorable matchups from now until the end of the year. You will see him in this area often until then.
Dark Horses:
Amir Johnson ($3,700): Johnson is so cheap that he easily hit 6x value with Embiid out on Tuesday. However, the minutes are mostly split equally between Holmes, Johnson, and Booker. That limits the upside of all of them, and also makes them all a pretty risky play since they don’t have a lot of chances to hit value. That said, center is a fantasy wasteland tonight. There just isn’t much out there.
Tristan Thompson ($3,500): The Cavs have gradually increased Thompson’s minutes. He is now up around 20 minutes. Thompson did a number on Milwaukee in just 18 minutes on Tuesday night. This is another pretty solid matchup for Thompson, who put up 17.75 DraftKings points in 23 minutes against Chicago earlier this year.
My pick: Valanciunas(C), N/A
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