DraftKings NBA picks December 22: Should we build around KD again?

We are back up to nine games for our Friday DraftKings tournament. There is value, and there are stars. What is the right mix? And finally, it appears that maybe DraftKings listened to me a little bit. They did create a $5 late swap tournament that is large enough for us GPP chasers. The excellent 8’s is still the huge one, and that still has no late swaps even though the rest of their games do.

Point Guards

Best Bets:

John Wall ($8,700): The top portion of PG is like a M*A*S*H* unit tonight with Paul, Curry, and Lillard all out. Westbrook plays Atlanta, a game that could turn into a blowout, and Atlanta is actually pretty good against the point. Wall seems like a solid pivot against Brooklyn. He is back up to about 32 minutes per game, and at least gets close to value at that price point.

Jrue Holiday ($7,300): Holiday has emerged as the perimeter threat for the Towers. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in four of the last six games. Orlando is a great matchup for him, especially with Fournier likely out again. The Pelicans are going to pad all kinds of stats tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Lonzo Ball ($7,000): Ball has done well against the Warriors so far in his career. He has 75.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Warriors so far. With Curry out again, Ball will be the best player in either backcourt. He should be well worth the price again tonight.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400): Dinwiddie has been cold from the floor lately, but this is the place for him to get back on track. The Wizards don’t defend the point well even with Wall in there. if Dinwiddie can get back to around 40% from the floor, he will have no problems hitting value tonight.

Elfrid Payton ($5,600): Payton wasn’t coming anywhere close to value, but his price has dropped to the point that he could be worth using. Payton topped 30 DraftKings points for the first time since December 3rd against the Bulls on Wednesday. He is in a good position tonight as well against a Pelicans team that can’t really decide on a point guard.

Dark Horses:

Tyler Johnson ($5,400): Goran Dragic is likely going to miss the entire weekend, so that moves Johnson to the top of the value list. He put up 63 DraftKings points over the last two games with Dragic out, and those game were against two top ten point guard defenses. He gets a rough matchup with Dallas tonight, but he is still going to get close to 6x value.

Shabazz Napier ($4,300): Napier will likely get the start with Damian Lillard out. He has been putting up decent numbers as a backup, and will get a chance to blow away value tonight. He is going to be a chalk play against Denver, and rightfully so. You will have a hard time finding the kind of numbers Napier will put up tonight from anyone else in this price range.

Patrick McCaw ($3,700): McCaw put up better numbers than starter Quinn Cook on Wednesday. With Livingston doubtful again for tonight, I am thinking that McCaw is a better play than Cook once again. McCaw put up 24.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday. He should at least hit that against the Lakers.

My pick: Rivers(PG, Teodosic out); Napier(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,500): Harden had a huge game with Paul ineffective before he got hurt on Wednesday. With Paul out, a large share of the point guard responsibilities will fall on Harden again. He thrived in that role earlier this season. I’m not shying away from Harden at this high price. He could be in for a big night tonight.

Bradley Beal ($7,500): Beal is doing what he does even with Wall back. Beal has at least 36 DraftKings points in each of the last eight games, so having Wall back hasn’t hurt him at all. Beal had 39.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Nets. that would fall right in line with his current output.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($7,400): Middleton has torched the Hornets in two games this year. He has 97.75 DraftKings points in those two games. Charlotte remains awful on the wing, and Middleton has only been below 35 DraftKings points once in the last 11 games. If you aren’t paying for Harden, Middleton is a suitable option at a much lower price.

Jonathon Simmons ($6,600): Simmons had a subpar game against the Bulls on Wednesday, but that can be forgiven. The Bulls look very different from the team that won just three games in the first quarter of the season. Simmons put up a respectable 34 DraftKings points against the Pelicans the first time around. That puts him a little above 5x value if he can do it again.

Josh Richardson ($6,100): I wasn’t thrilled about Richradson’s matchup with the Celtics on Wednesday, so I let him be. He still put up 35.5 DraftKings points against one of the better defenses in the league. At this price, Richardson seems to be matchup-proof. He has been over 30 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. Dragic being out has been a huge boost for Richardson.

Dark Horses:

Eric Gordon ($5,900): Gordon will rejoin the starting lineup tonight against the Clippers with Paul out. Before the return of Paul, Gordon was an automatic 30 DraftKings points a night. I expdect him to be back to that level of production again for as long as he starts.

Evan Turner ($3,800): There is value to be had with Turner tonight. With Lillard out, Napier and possibly McCollum will take turns running the point. That should open up some more minutes for Turner at the off guard. Turner picked up 26.25 DraftKings points on Denver in 25 minutes in the first meeting. There is a good chance that Turner reaches that minutes threshold again tonight.

My pick: Middleton(SG), Gordon(G); Harden(SG), Gordon(G), Turner(UTIL)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($11,600): KD roughed up the Lakers for 72.25 DraftKings points on Monday night with pretty much the same available players as tonight. It’s Durant and the seven dwarfs again tonight. There is plenty of value to put him into your lineup with another stud tonight. Who will you build around with Durant?

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300): It’s a tough night to pay this much for Giannis with both KD and Harden having not only better matchups, but better siutations with players being out. Antetokounmpo has 108.75 DraftKings points in two games against Charlotte this year, but that still isn’t 5x value at this price. It pains me to say it, but you can do better than the Freak tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Paul George ($7,100): George has managed to produce even though his shot is not falling. George is just 14-39 from the floor over his last three games. He has a good matchup against Atlanta, and since Westbrook has a somewhat difficult matchup tonight, George may be needed to take on a larger role in the offense.

Brandon Ingram ($6,800): Ingram likes facing the Warriors. He has 91.75 DraftKings in two games against them. Ingram’s total was 41.5 against the depleted version of the Warriors on Monday. There is no reason for him to not hit that point tonight.

Kyle Kuzma ($6,300): Kuzma has been on a tear lately. He has played at least 40 minutes in each of the last two games, and has racked up 98.25 DraftKings points. Kuzma will cost you about what your average salary per slot is on DraftKings, but he will produce far beyond that.

Dark Horses:

Michael Beasley ($5,200): Beastley shredded the Celtics last night, racking up 48 DraftKings points. He now has 133 DraftKings points in just his last three games. Even if Porzingis is hitting shots tonight, I’m not sure that Beasley’s role will decrease that much. He is producing at such a high level that the Knicks can’t afford to sit him right now.

DeMarre Carroll ($4,800): Carroll has been pretty steady lately, putting up at least 25 DraftKings points in four of the last six games. One of those games was against the Wizards in which Carroll put up 29. He is a solid value source right now, but lacks significant upside since he is not a focal point of the offense.

Andre Iguodala ($4,200): Iggy was out on Wednesday, but looks like he will return tonight. The Warriors could sure use him since the team is beat up right now. He put up 29 DraftKings points on the Lakers on Monday. That seems like a reasonable expectation for tonight as well.

My pick: Ingram(SF); Beastley(SF), Carroll(F)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($10,500): A.D. tore up Aaron Gordon and the Magic in the earlier meeting. Now with Gordon out, the Magic are even more undersized at the position with Hezonja starting. Davis put up 61 in the first meeting. He should get at least that tonight!

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,400): Porzingis burned a lot of people last night. I’m not saying that it wont happen again, but it is worth noting that Porzingis put up 46.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Detroit this year. His price is down to the point where he could be a nice value. Or he could torpedo your entire lineup again.

Honorable Mention:

Draymond Green ($7,400): Draymond has been cleared for tonight, which is good news for Golden State fans. Green put up 50.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Lakers. Now, considering his lengthy absence, Green may not log 38 minutes like he did in the first game, but I would stil think he plays enough to hit value at this price. It also means that Julius Randle wont be having his way on the interior like he did on Monday.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,000): RHJ is back to putting up double-doubles after a few games off. He put up 36 DraftKings points on Washington the first time around, and the Wizards aren’t really any better up front right now. Hollis-Jefferson is good for around 6x value tonight, but don’t expect anything over that.

Carmelo Anthony ($5,600): This is a great matchup for Melo, as the Hawks are the worst team in the league against power forwards. That said, he is sometimes an afterthought on this pretty loaded team. There is no guarantee on his touches, but Melo should still come around 5x value. That makes him a solid value play.

Dark Horses:

John Collins ($5,000): Collins lacks a lot of upside because he doesn’t start, but it is quickly becoming apparent that he is the best frontcourt player the Hawks have right now. He is limited to around 25 minutes per game, but against Carmelo and the Thunder tonight, he should easily surpass 5x value. Collins has more than 27 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. It should be four of five after tonight.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,700): Aminu has at least 5x value in six of the last eight games. This is a good matchup against a Denver team that is still a little beat up in the middle. As with a lot of options in this tier, Aminu doesn’t have a lot of upside, but he should get above 5x value again.

Mike Scott ($4,600): This one is simple: if Porter is out, I want Scott in. Scott has 98 DraftKings points in three games with Otto out. One of those was against the enormous Pelicans. Scott will definitely get 30 against Brooklyn if Porter is forced to sit again.

My pick: Collins(PF); Davis(PF)

Center:

Best Bet:

DeMarcus Cousins ($11,100): This one is a tough sell for me since Davis was a lot better than Cousins in the first meeting. Boogie was “held” to 45 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but I doubt he goes 5-14 from the floor again. Vucevic is solid, but he can’t stop both of these behemoths. I still prefer Davis at a slightly lower price though.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,800): There aren’t a lot of centers that I am crazy about tonight, but Jordan is definitely one of them. With Capela more than likely out, Jordan should have free reign against Nene, and Blake Griffin is still out. This could be a big night for Jordan if you aren’t paying up for Boogie.

Honorable Mention:

Dwight Howard ($7,600): It’s no secret that the Bucks have struggled against centers, even more so since they moved Monroe. Howard has averaged 40 DraftKings points in his two games against the Bucks. I would be happy with that kind of output tonight.

Steven Adams ($6,500): Adams wont put up eye popping numbers with everyone else around, but the Hawks are weak on the interior. Adams does enough with the rebounding and defending to get to value most of the time, but it could be tougher with his price this high.

Enes Kanter ($6,200): This is a bit of a tough one since I don’t really know what the Knicks are going to do with their rotation tonight. Their second team played most of the second half last night since they couldn’t beat Boston with their starters. I expect some kind of hybrid lineup, my best guess being Porzingis up front and Beastley at one of the forward slots, which would relegate Kanter to bench duty. Make sure to watch the starting lineups closely. That said, Kanter could still produce off the bench.

Dark Horses:

Jordan Bell ($4,400): Zaza Pachulia has still not been given a green light. If he is out again, I still like Bell even with Green back. Especially at this price. The only problem is that we wont have clarification as to whether Zaza is out by the time the tournaments lock.

Jordan Mickey ($3,900): Miami is beat up in the frontcourt, so Mickey will likely see another start. Most are going to be on Olynyk after what he did to Boston, but I don’t trust his inconstency. I would rather roll with Mickey and his 6x value for sure than Olynyk’s 3x or 9x…..or anywhere in between.

My pick: Jordan(C), Mickey(F), Howard(UTIL); Mickey(C)

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