DraftKings NBA picks December 25: Christmas is LeBron’s Day

After a day off for Christmas Eve, the NBA is back with five games on Christmas Day. For many, this in the unofficial start of the NBA season! The games start at noon, so make sure you have your lineups in early, and make damn sure your guys are playing. The classic DraftKings tournaments still don’t have late swap, so if you want to take down the holiday classic, you can’t do that if someone in a late game sits. Like, say, Chris Paul in the 8pm eastern tip. This is a prime example of why they should reimplement late swap across all formats. The late tip is 10.5 hours after the first tip!

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($10,900): Westbrook is on the grand stage, and he has done some big things on a grand stage before. This is an especially great matchup if Chris Paul can’t play. Even if Paul is in there, it’s still hard to ignore Westbrook in this situation. His games with Harden last year were battles. I’m looking forward to this one!

Ben Simmons ($9,300): The Knicks have actually done pretty well against point guards lately. Simmons has slowed down since a red hot start. Simmons has still put up some good numbers most of the time, but he has been under 35 DraftKings points three times in the last ten games. There is some risk involved here.

Honorable Mention:

Kyrie Irving ($8,300): Don’t look now, but Irving has three straight games of over 5x value. One of those was against a Knicks team that has done well lately. The Wizards don’t defend the point well, so if you don’t trust the upper tier, Irving looks like safest pick at the top of the PG pool.

Lonzo Ball ($6,900): The most polarizing rookie (though no fault of his own) on Christmas Day? What could possibly go wrong? Ball was fine after heading to the locker room early on Saturday, and still ended up playing 36 minutes. This is a great matchup for Ball since the Timberwolves are not good defending the point. He is a relatively low risk option today. The stage doesn’t seem too big for Ball.

Jeff Teague ($6,000): Teague continues to put up solid all around numbers. There is still too much talent on this team for Teague to rip off a big night even in a good matchup, but there is value to be had here.

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Jack ($4,600): Jack was just supposed to be holding the fort down until Ntilikina was ready to take the job. That plan has been shelved since the Knicks are playoff contenders, and Jack is doing a good job running the team. He is solid, but unspectacular. He should approach 6x value against Philly tonight.

Josh Hart ($3,700): We have an interesting situation to watch in L.A. Hart has put up two huge games lately while filling in, first for KCP, then for Ingram. Ingram is not a sure thing for Monday. If Ingram is out, I definitely want Hart. However, we likely wont know by the noon eastern tip. Even still, Hart has been stealing minutes from Jordan Clarkson too.

My pick: Ball(PG), Jack(G), Hart(UTIL); Jack(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,100): Harden has 102 points over the last two games. Not DraftKings points, actual points! His DK total is at 144.25. In just two games! If Paul is back, that obviously takes a big chunk out of Harden’s value. Call me selfish, but I kind of want to see Paul sit one more game so we get a grand show from Harden in the NBA’s unofficial coming out party for the 2017-18 meeting. Hopefully the Paul news comes down early enough in the day!

Jimmy Butler ($8,400): KCP can’t defend and jacks up a bunch of bad shots. Oh, and he can’t play on 95% of road games. How much longer will the Lakers put up with him when they have a guy like Josh Hart behind him? At any rate, this is a home game so KCP will be busy not playing defense on Butler. This could be a huge game for Jimmy here.

Honorable Mention:

Klay Thompson ($6,400): We have seen Klay have some success against the Cavs in the Finals over the last couple of years. Cleveland still doesn‘t defend the perimeter well, and Klay is still a really good shooter. I don’t expect him to carry the offense, but he should hit 5x value easily.

Eric Gordon ($5,600): This is only a really good play if Paul sits, and we likely wont know that by noon. Gordon racked up 38 DraftKings points with Paul out, and has 110 over his last three games. There is a chance that Gordon could produce anyway, but for me it’s too big of a risk even if Paul is questionable. I want him out before I commit to Gordon.

Dark Horses:

Courtney Lee ($4,800): Lee has been off and on this year, but his overall numbers are up with Hardaway out. He isn’t a game changer, but in a matchup like this, Lee has a legitimate shot at 7x value whether Redick plays or not.

Jamal Crawford ($3,900): Well, now this is something, isn’t it? A Timberwolves bench player that has value? Tom Thibodeau is notorious for running starters ragged, but Crawford has emerged out of the second unit as a good value play. Crawford has 82 DraftKings points over the last three games. That makes him a really good value right now.

My pick: Crawford(SG); Harden(SG), Crawford(G)

Small Forwards:

LeBron James ($11,000): Is it me, or does LeBron always come up big on Christmas Day? He sank ten threes on Christmas in his rookie year. LeBron posted a triple double on Christmas of 2010 against the Lakers. He went for 37 and 10 in the first game of the 2011 season against Dallas on Christmas Day. How about last year’s 31 and 13 on the Warriors? LeBron isn’t always great on Christmas, but he has been at at least 5x value in all but two of his Christmas Day affairs in his career, even at this price. He seems like a pretty safe play here.

Kevin Durant ($10,500): The whole Golden State offense was a wreck last night against Denver. For the first time since Curry’s absence, they looked really out of sorts. Don’t count on Cleveland being able to discombobulate them like that. KD is capable of having another huge game here. Of course, we all want to see Curry against Cleveland, but that wont happen today. We have to settle for Durant going off in Curry’s absence.

Honorable Mention:

Paul George ($6,800): With the way Westbrook is playing in December, George has taken a hit in production. I expect that trend to continue on Christmas, but George’s price is low enough that he doesn’t have to hit 40 DraftKings points to hit value. George has been at or above 5x value at this price three times in the last five games. He should be a nice compliment to Westbrook on Monday.

Robert Covington ($6,100): Covington just continues to produce good numbers for this price. It has been Covington that is taking more threes with Redick out with mixed success. At any right, I like this higher usage of Covington. I even like him if Redick is back. Covington is too solid to ignore at this price.

Dark Horses:

Jayson Tatum ($5,400): The rookie continues to put up really solid stat lines. With Irving and Horford around, Tatum will never be a major player in this offense, but he is putting up numbers that are more than good enough for this price. Tatum has at least 5x value in five straight games.

Andre Iguodala ($3,900): Iggy gets more run that most on the Warriors bench, but he doesn’t always do a lot with that court time. There is risk here, but we have seen Iguodala come up big in big situations. If you are playing roulette with your lineup anyway, Iggy is a solid upside punt, as is Casspi. The Warrior bench gets decent run most nights.

My pick: James(SF), Covington(F); James(SF), Tatum(F)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,600): I will concede that it’s hard to ride Porzingis after Friday. That one hurt. However, he rebounded nicely against a solid Detroit front on Saturday, and he has a really nice matchup against Philadelphia on Christmas. The Sixers don’t defend the four well at all. This is an even better play if Embiid remains out.

Kevin Love ($7,500): Love has been very good this season as the Robin to Batman in Cleveland. So long as Robin is in this price range, he is worth using. I especially like this play if Love spends most of his time at the five, which he has lately. Though with Thompson playing more, Love could find himself plagued by Draymond, which would hurt his value.

Honorable Mention:

Draymond Green ($7,200): Green is listed as questionable, but you know that he is going to play against the Cavs. Green has feuded with just about everyone associated with the city of Cleveland within the course of the last two years. He is going to play, and likely play well. He is a thorn for Cleveland, but that doesn’t always translate to DraftKings points. It very well could though. He is going to be amped for this one.

Taj Gibson ($5,800): It’s going to be tough to get me on the Taj Train again after the dud against Phoenix, but the stats support it. The Lakers are awful against power forwards. Gibson definitely has a nice matchup here, but I don’t know that I trust it. Gibson hasn’t been over 5x value since December 16th.

Carmelo Anthony ($5,600): Well, Melo is back on Christmas, but not as a Knick. He has at least 5x value in three straight games. Don’t go expecting big things here, but the matchup is decent against Houston. This is more about playing the player instead of the matchup. There are better options out there, but this is Melo. He could be huge or he could be below average.

Dark Horses:

Jordan Bell ($4,900): Bell continues to destroy 5x value with Zaza Pachulia out. It is to the point now that the Warriors should entrust Bell to either the starting position outright or about the same minutes that he is currently seeing of the bench if Pachulia starts upon his return. The sky is the limit for Bell against this front, especially if he starts.

Gorgui Dieng ($3,400): Dieng has earned more minutes off of the bench lately, and he has done well with it. Well enough that he is worth using at this price range. The Timberwolves are playing five starters and only three off the bench lately. That makes their bench pretty valuable, especially when they are this cheap.

My pick: Bell(PF); Dieng(PF)

Center:

Best Bet:

Joel Embiid ($9,500): It’s tough to ride Embiid with that balky back, so this is a big time risk should you use him. However, don’t count on Kanter or Porzingis being able to shut him down. The only thing that can stop Embiid is that balky back, and the Sixers are likely going to be cautious with him. The good part is that this is the early game, and we should know his status and of any minutes limits before tipoff.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,900): I’m honestly a little surprised that Towns is this cheap. The Lakers have turned away from traditional centers with Brook Lopez out. It has been mixed results thus far. At any rate, the undersized Suns had no answer for Towns. The Lakers wont either.

Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($6,600): We should know if Capela is a go early on Monday. I would think that he will play since the Rockets have held him out lately. This is a pretty good matchup for Capela, who was playing out of his mind before the heel bruise. He could have a really good night if he is in the lineup.

Steven Adams ($5,500): Adams is putting up numbers way above his price range. Only the Sixers have held him under 5x value since December 1st. If Capela is out, Adams could have a monster day. Even if Capela plays, I still like Adams. That makes him one of my favorite for my Christmas lineup.

Dark Horses:

Julius Randle ($5,000): Randle has been filling in at center for Lopez lately. The issue with Randle is that he only does well when his minutes are limited. At least that has been the case so far. But Randle’s output has been plenty for his price, and we all know that Towns is not a great defender. Randle could be a very nice bargain. Merry Christmas!

Daniel Theis ($3,400): Was Saturday a flash in the pan, or a harbinger of things to come? Aron Baynes has a tentative hold on the center position, and Theis has been far from a consistent producer. That said, if he puts up a double-double for this price again, you are way ahead of the game. How risky do you get with your lineup?

My pick: Towns(C); Adams(C), Randle(UTIL)

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