Welcome to the Week 16 edition of FanDuel NFL lineups. We’re a Daily Fantasy Football column focused on top picks and best value for your weekly FanDuel NFL lineups. We arm you with information for a big FanDuel NFL payday each week.
Before we review last week, I want to apologize. I planned to get this article out sooner, but over the last 48 hours I’ve been managing my 18-month-old’s path of destruction, and while she was sleeping (one of three kids) my father-in-law was constantly showing me highly inappropriate, but definitely very hilarious, videos he was receiving from friends over email. Merry Christmas everyone!
Week 15 was a great one! We were high on Todd Gurley, who piled up 152 rushing yards, 28 receiving yards, and totaled four touchdowns in a total destruction of the Seahawks defense. Gurley finished the day with 43.5 FanDuel NFL points, the most of any other player in week 15, and one of the best DFS NFL performances of the season. Even better Todd was only 35% owned in many GPP leagues, making his play huge for those formats.
We also loved Le’Veon Bell against a struggling Patriots defense. Bell was able to provide 117 rushing yards, 48 receiving yards, and had a touchdown for 25 FanDuel NFL points. Bell was well owned, over 50% in GPP and even higher in cash games, but if you paired Gurley with Bell, like we did, it was easy to win most of your plays.
Unfortunately, Alex Collins was only able to provide 7.7 FanDuel NFL points on just over 50 total yards from scrimmage and no touchdowns. Also, Russell Wilson was decimated by the Rams defense, totaling just 142 passing yards with a touchdown, and turning the ball over once, for a low total of 11.58 points.
So if you played Wilson, one of our two top picks, at quarterback you were disappointed. But Cam Newton threw for over 240 yards and four touchdowns yielding over 31 FanDuel NFL points at the quarterback position for anyone who plugged him into their lineup.
The Tom Brady fade turned out to be a smart one, as he only dropped 16.72 FanDuel NFL points into your point total. But fading Rodgers, even with his very clear injury issues, wasn’t ideal. Aaron still piled up nearly 25 FanDuel NFL points in a losing effort for the Packers.
The wide receivers had mixed results, but tight end, kicker, and defense played out well. So in the end, most of our GPP and cash plays padded our FanDuel NFL account for some big plays this week. So, we’ll take what we learned last week and move forward.
With two games already played on Saturday, we’re only focusing on the 14 games remaining from Sunday through Monday. Now, let’s get start on your NFL DFS optimal lineup with the Quarterbacks…
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 16 – Quarterbacks
Top Picks
One again, we love Cam Newton ($8,300) this week, at home in Charlotte. Cam and the Panthers are hosting the Buccaneers, who they struggled against in late October. But since that game, Newton and the Panthers offense have been on fire. Also, with Greg Olsen back on the field, Newton has his favorite target against the 29th worst passing defense in the NFL.
Yes, Russell Wilson ($9,000) and the Seahawks struggled significantly against the Rams last week. But in Dallas, the Seahawks have a better match up. And with Elliott running the ball again, the Seahawks likely find themselves behind quickly and Wilson will be chucking the ball often down the field, and scrambling. The big risk with the Wilson play is turnovers, but it’s unlikely he has a similar outcome two weeks in a row.
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I’m sure this last top pick will get some criticism, but it’s hard to ignore the potential Nick Foles ($7,300) provides this week. The Raiders are struggling significantly to contain the passing game this season, 23rd in the NFL defending passing yards. Even worse, Oakland is giving up over 110 rushing yards per game. This match up falls right into the game-planning hands of the Eagles.
It’s likely the Eagles will run the ball often against the Raiders, to try to free up space for Foles, especially with the play-action. But, it’s also likely Doug Pederson is willing to push Nick to throw the ball often, getting him ready for the post-season. Foles currently has a low 6.44 yards per attempt, but that’s mostly due to the short routes he’s been throwing to tight ends. On Monday night, expect Foles to go deep more often.
While there were rumors the Eagles may not play Foles with a first-round bye locked up, don’t count on it. The Vikings are still a threat to steal home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and Pederson likely wants Foles to continue to get into game-shape before they take a week off and prepare for their first playoff game.
Other Top Option
With Carson Wentz out of the way, Ben Roethlisberger ($8,300) quietly has the second most passing yards in the NFL right now, 4,025. The obvious reason Big Ben is doing so well with passing yards is the fact that he’s throw the ball 532 times in 14 games, easily the most in the NFL. That’s likely to continue in Houston, where the Texans have struggled to contain the passing game with so many defensive injuries. And yes, we realize Antonio Brown is out, but the Steelers have plenty of receiving weapons for Ben.
Fades
Tom Brady ($8,600) – Look, we realize how stupid it looks to fade Brady weekly, but over the last three weeks it’s worked out well. Something is wrong with Brady, physically. Yes, Tom is very likely to bounce back at some point, but the Bills are a tough passing defense and they held Brady to a measly 9.32 FanDuel NFL points in early December. With the other options on the board, this pick just seems too risky for the salary.
Matt Ryan ($7,700) – We’ve had Ryan on the fade list often and it continues. The answer is simple, Ryan isn’t gelling with his new offense, and therefore there is no reason to even take a flier on Matt this week. Ryan doesn’t have more than 20 FanDuel NFL points in any game this season, and the Saints have a solid set of defensive backs. Don’t do it!
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 16 – Running Backs
Top Picks
Le’Veon Bell ($9,300) is consistently expensive, but for good reason. Over the last four weeks, Bell has averaged 27.25 FanDuel NFL points-per-game. You are not going to get that type of consistent production from any other player in any other position.
Even when Lev doesn’t score a touchdown, like he failed to do against the Packers on November 26th, he still touched the ball 32 times (run or pass) for over 180 yards from scrimmage. Also, Bell hasn’t had a sub-ten FanDuel NFL point game since his first game of the season, September 10th. In all formats, Bell must be in your lineup, and this week he’s affordable.
Todd Gurley II ($9,100) has been equally as dominate as Bell. The FanDuel NFL point-per-game total improved for Gurley after he piled up an amazing 43.5 points last week in Seattle. Todd had five rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdowns against two of top defenses in the NFL, over the last two weeks.
This week, the Rams visit the Titans in Tennessee. Many FanDuel NFL players will take a look at the Titans top-three ranked rushing yards defensed and pause when considering Gurley. Also, the Titans have only given up five rushing touchdowns all season.
But, Todd faced an Eagles defense, two weeks ago, who is the best in the league defending the run, and still provided 27 FanDuel NFL points on 96 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and 39 receiving yards. Don’t let the match up fool you, Gurley is still a top-two play this week.
There is certainly some danger in playing a ‘cold’ Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300) this week against the Seahawks. Zeke sat out the last six Cowboys games, and as we saw with Bell early in the season, inactivity with the team can slow down performance on the NFL regular season field. But in this case, Elliott already had eight games under his belt, and likely gets back into playing shape quickly. For $1K less than Bell, Elliott could be a steal this week.
Other Top Options
Kenyan Drake ($7,100) has consistently piled up over 100 yards per game from scrimmage in the last three weeks. Kenyan also has a touchdown in two of his last three games. As a result, we now have a running back who’s consistently providing over 20 FanDuel NFL points per game, on a cheap salary.
This week, the Dolphins have a great match up against a Chiefs defense struggling to defend the passing and running game. With Drake hot over the last three weeks, and Cutler taking snaps, it’s likely the Dolphins continue to pound the ball with Drake. Also, Kenyan is one of the few healthy running backs on Miami’s roster, further making it very likely he get the ball often this week.
Christian McCaffrey ($7,300) is more expensive than Drake, and not as great a value this week. But McCaffrey has Alvin Kamara ($8,500) like abilities, and is now a consistent slam-dunk to score double-digit FanDuel NFL points when not playing the Vikings. On a home field this week against the Bucs, McCaffrey has a decent shot at 20 points.
Fades
Jordan Howard ($7,100) – We generally like Howard, but he’s been inconsistent this season. Also, the Browns are surprisingly good at stopping the run this season. So if you’re expecting a cheap play on a poor defense, you’re going to be disappointed if you pick Jordan this week.
Carlos Hyde ($6,800) – One of the narratives about the Jaguars defense throughout this season is that they are great with passing defense but terrible against the run. However, over the last month, the Jags have buttoned up their run defense and are rapidly climbing up the run-D ranking board. Do not get fouled into playing Hyde against a very good run defense this week.
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 16 – Wide Receivers
Top Picks
With Antonio Brown out this week due to a ‘signficant lower-leg contusion,’ we have to immediately upgrade JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,000). Even with Brown on the field, Smith-Schuster has seen an increase in targets over the last five games, averaging around seven per game. With Antonio off the field, we can expect Ben to look JuJu’s way ten to 15 times this week.
Regardless, Smith-Schuster has 97 receiving yards, or greater, in three of the last five Steelers games, and two touchdowns in that span. The Steelers are traveling to Houston on Christmas day to face one of the leagues worst passing defenses. For only $7K, we’re likely getting a top-five FanDuel NFL receiver this week.
Keenan Allen ($8,300) may only have five touchdowns this season, but with 137 targets, fourth in the NFL Allen has nearly 1,200 yards. This week, the Chargers travel to New York to face a Jets team who’s struggling to keep any passing game quiet.
Like Allen, Jarvis Landry ($6,800) is a target machine. Jarvis now has 143 targets, third in the NFL, and eight touchdowns. The only problem with Landry is the yardage. The Dolphins like to dump the ball off to Jarvis in the flat, and let him run. But that can also yield zero or negative yardage. But with such a high target value, Landry is a weekly top pick, and still price cheaply.
We expect Foles to have another good game against the Raiders on Christmas night, and Alshon Jeffery ($7,200) should continue to remain hot as well. With Wentz taking snaps against the Rams, Alshon had eleven targets for five receptions, 52 yards, and a touchdown. Against the Giants and with Foles leading the offense, Jeffery didn’t miss a beat, getting ten targets for four receptions, 49 yards, and another touchdown. Jeffery is quietly a solid value at wide receiver again this week.
Other Top Picks
If you like the Eagles passing offense but need more value from your receiver pick, consider Nelson Agholor ($5,900). Over the last three weeks, Nelson is averaging over ten targets per game, and at least seven receptions per game. Like Jeffery, Agholor didn’t miss a beat against the Giants, and hauled in seven receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown. We should see a similar performance on Christmas night.
We haven’t talked much about Goff, but we do like the Rams offense this week. We expect Gurley to continue to carry the Rams offense in Tennessee, but Goff is likely to target Robert Woods ($6,600) for another six to eight receptions and flirt with 100 receiving yards. Also, with five touchdowns in the last four games, Robert is becoming a favorite target for Jared in the red zone.
Lastly, we’re slipping in a risky value pick. We’ve harped on Rishard Matthews ($5,700) for several weeks this season. And with the Titans constantly in need of passing the all on Sunday, we love Matthews potential against the Rams.
Over the last three weeks, Rishard has seen solid passing defense, but recorded 95+ receiving yards in two of his last three games, along with two touchdowns. In fact, while Rishard had a quiet start, he maintained a high volume of targets, and is starting to see more targets for touchdowns as the season progresses. It’s likely Matthews flirts with 20 FanDuel NFL points this week.
Fades
Julio Jones ($8,500) – We keep fading Matt Ryan for the same reason, they’re consistently disappointing. Jones has one great game and one good game this season, the rest have been terrible. There is no reason, what-so-ever, to play Julio now or for the rest of the season.
A.J. Green ($7,800) – We don’t hate Green just because he’s had a rough two weeks and the Bengals benched Andy Dalton last week. We mostly don’t want any part of AJ because he’s going to be blanketed by Darius Slay all game.
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 16 – Tight End / Kicker / Defense
Am I the only FanDuel NFL player who keeps checking the salary for Greg Olsen ($6,600) to make sure it wasn’t a mistake? How in the world are we only paying $6.6K for a tight end who easily put up 22 FanDuel NFL points last week in Charlotte? Cam Newton‘s favorite passing target, he saw 12 last week, is back on the field. Olsen hauled in nine receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown.
In his debut from healing, Greg had a rough game against the Vikings, but if we’ve learned anything over the last 15 weeks of NFL football, it’s that the Vikings are always an offensive caveat. This week, Olsen and Newton should continue to pass their way down the field against one of the leagues worst passing defenses, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
There are plenty of great kicker options on the board this week, and typically we target one of the more expensive options. However, this week we feel like Robbie Gould $4,700) is an underrated value at the position. The 49ers have a terrible task of facing the leagues top passing defense, but they Jaguars have struggled against the rush.
The 49ers have suddenly been able to move the ball more down field, and Gould is seeing more field goal attempts. Over the last three games, Robbie has 15 field goals in 15 attempts, along with only three extra points. With this tough match up, it’s likely Gould continues to get options for the three-point variety, at a cheap salary.
Sticking with the value theme on defense, although a more expensive one, we love the Chicago Bears $4,800) defense this week. The Bears have quietly developed one of the better pass defenses in the NFL, currently ranked 10th in the NFL in yards and 6th best in passing touchdowns (only 17 over 14 games).
And against the run they’re not far behind, 11th, and only give up 21 points per game, tied with the Seahawks for 12th best in the NFL. With a match up at home in Chicago against one of the leagues worst offenses, the Cleveland Browns, the Bears are a very good bet. Also, given their record, they’re likely to be overlooked by many FanDuel NFL players.
So after reviewing all of the options, we put together our favorite lineup for the day. Here’s a look at our Final FanDuel NFL for Week 16 of the 2017 Season:
QB – Foles (PHI $7,300)
RB – Gurley II (LAR $9,100)
RB – Bell (PIT $9,300)
WR – Agholor (PHI $5,900)
WR – Matthews (TEN $5,700)
WR – Woods (LAR $6,600)
TE – Olsen (CAR $6,600)
K – Gould (SF $4,700)
D – Chicago Bears ($4,800)
This leaves us with $0 left, maximizing our picks using value in two receiver positions, defense, and kicker and loading up on some big point potential at quarterback, running back, and receiver.
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for the week. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NFL lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and good luck with your FanDuel NFL plays for week 16 of the NFL season. Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!