DraftKings NBA picks December 26: Giannis is the clear star

The NBA is back with a little more than half the league in action today. A lot of stars played on Christmas Day, so the star power is a little less today. There are still some very good options as the NBA produces a furious finish to the 2017 calendar year.

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Lou Williams ($7,600): LouWill has 98.5 DraftKings points in his last two games. He also kicked up 42.75 against the Kings in the first meeting. Williams has been pushed to the bench when Teodosic plays, but his production doesn’t suffer because the minutes don’t either. It really doesn’t matter whether Williams starts or not. He is a strong play either way.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,300): Mitchell was eased back in against Houston, but against the Thunder on Saturday, he was one of the few Jazz payers that could hit a shot. Mitchell’s two meetings against Denver were before his monster December, so don’t worry too much about his averages against the Nuggets. He should still be at 5x value or better tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Kris Dunn ($7,000): Dunn put up 30.5 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes against the Bucks last week in a game he ended up fouling out of. Bledsoe put up 25 DraftKings points in about 34 minutes. So you can see why I am opting for Dunn over Bledsoe, besides the obvious price difference. Bledsoe didn’t even come up big with Giannis out!

Goran Dragic ($6,600): I almost hope Dragic doesn’t play because of what Tyler Johnson did in his absence and against the opponents he did it to. From a DFS perspective, Johnson is a much better play. Whoever starts at point against the Magic is going to be in my lineup. I prefer Johnson, but he may wind up there regardless of if he starts or not. The $5,700 pricetag is very tempting, especially if Waiters is out again.

Dark Horses:

Isaiah Canaan ($4,700): Canaan had his hands full with Tyreke and Harrison back on Thursday, but he still ended up with 24.25 DraftKings points. That is 5x value against the team that has allowed the second least fantasy points to point guards. Canaan could be a sneaky value play tonight.

Andrew Harrison ($4,100): Harrison was a bit of a disappointment against the Suns last week, and that has everything to do with Canaan. Since Canaan joined the team, the Suns have improved five spots in defense against the point already. That should tell you just how awful the duo of Mike James and Tyler Ulis was defensively. They weren’t a lot better on offense. That said, Harrison should still at least flirt with 5x value. Canaan is solid, but he’s not a top ten defender at the position.

My pick: Williams(PG), Johnson(G), Canaan(UTIL); Dunn(PG), Harrison(UTIL)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Victor Oladipo ($9,400): Starting him against the Pistons is going to be a hard sell for some, but in the three prior games against Detroit this year, Oladipo has 130 DraftKings points. That is very close to 5x value, and I’m betting that Oladipo’s ownership will be in the single digits.

Tyreke Evans ($8,600): Dallas is tough on the perimeter, so I’m going to fade DeRozan. I just think Evans will put up better numbers at a better price. Evans has averaged 18.4 points, five rebounds, and four assists in the 18 games with Conley out. Evans has a chance for another good night against a Suns team that he put up 43.75 DraftKings points on last week.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($8,400): As expected, Middleton was huge with Giannis out. He also put up 53.5 DraftKings points on the Bulls 11 days ago with Giannis in the lineup. Having Middelton’s price this high all but destroys him as a value pick, but he has a track record of taking it to the Bulls. SG is pretty loaded tonight, so Middleton could be lower owned than he should be.

Josh Richardson ($6,800): The bulk of the scoring load for the Heat is still falling on the guards. As such, Richardson has had a big month. If for some reason Devin Booker is cleared, I definitely want him in. If Booker is out, I will step down to Richardson without thinking twice.

Austin Rivers ($6,600): I think that the Clippers are quickly realizing how dangerous this team can be with Rivers and Williams on the court at the same time. Teodosic will still take minutes, but I don’t trust him for DFS purposes. Rivers even put up a big line with Teodosic in on Saturday. I expect that to be the norm more often than not.

Dark Horses:

Justin Holiday ($5,200): Holiday wont be a popular pick against the Bucks, but he put up 27 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting despite going 2-10 from the floor. There is pretty good potential here for Holiday, though playing someone like Holiday against a good team like the Bucks is always a risk.

Mario Hezonja ($5,000): Hezonja is at least 6x value every time he starts, so if Aaron Gordon sits again (he is still questionable), Hezonja will be in all of my lineups against the depleted Heat front. Make sure to watch this situation leading up to contest lock. This game starts 30 minutes after lock, but we should have confirmation on Gordon’s status before then.

Buddy Hield ($4,700): Hield is capable of big games, like the 41.25 DraftKings points in only 25 minutes in the first meeting with the Kings. Hield has outplayed all of the other guards for the Kings, but he is prone to bouts of inconsistency and still comes off the bench. Expecting a repeat, while possible, is a dangerous proposition.

Troy Daniels ($3,800): The veteran is logging enough minutes to be dangerous in the absence of Booker. If Booker is out again, Daniels has been a sure source of nearly 7x value in each of the past three games. One of those just happened to be against tonight’s opponent.

My pick: Hield(SG); Evans(SG), Middleton(G), Holiday(SF)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500): Giannis is the star tonight, so long as his knee isn’t an issue. There has been no word that it will be, but his Saturday scratch came out of nowhere as well. At any rate, Antetokounmpo put up 58.5 DraftKings points against the Bulls in the first meeting. He should be in that area again, and is likely the only player that can put up numbers like that tonight.

Jonathon Simmons ($7,100): Keep an eye on the status of Evan Fournier. If Fournier is back, I don’t like Simmons at all for this price. There is way too much uncertainty of what will happen when Fournier returns. I think Simmons still starts, especially if Gordon remains out, but his production could still take a sizeable hit.

Honorable Mention:

T.J. Warren ($6,900): I wasn’t a fan of Warren against the eighth ranked small forward defense last week, but after he put up 38.75 DraftKings points on them, I may be willing to reconsider. Warren’s production hasn’t been consistently high enough with Booker out to put me all in on this, but Warren is a solid pick for the price.

Thaddeus Young ($5,800): Young puts up solid numbers about in the same range in every single game, it seems. Young has 92.75 DraftKings points in three games against Detroit this year. That puts him right around 5.5x value. He wont wow you with numbers, but Young is about as consistent as you can get at this price.

Dark Horses:

Lance Stephenson ($4,300): Stephenson’s upside is capped because he doesn’t start, but he is a constant source of 6x value at this price. Stephenson has 70.5 DraftKings points in three games against the Pistons this year, which would put him just below 6x value. Stephenson remains a strong value play tonight.

Dillon Brooks ($3,800): Chandler Parsons was largely ineffective against Phoenix in the first meeting, so the Suns went small. That resulted in 20 DraftKings points for Brooks. The same think could happen tonight, which makes Brooks a pretty solid value play.

My pick: Antetokounmpo(SF); N/A

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,500): I like Aldridge a lot more if Kawhi is out, but against a team like the Nets, LMA could have a good game no matter what. Even if Leonard plays, his minutes will still be limited. Aldridge has a good shot at 5.5x value tonight.

Aaron Gordon ($7,700): This is going to be a big night for the Magic against a beat up Heat frontcourt. If Gordon plays, I want him in my lineup so long as there are no restrictions. Keep an eye out as lineups are announced. If Gordon is on a minutes limit, it really hurts his value and Hezonja’s. Enough to avoid this situation entirely.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Mirotic ($6,500): Mirotic played 29 minutes and put up 38 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Bucks. This is a bit misleading though because Markkanen sat out that game. Portis dominated the Bucks off the bench in that game too. There is a ton of value for Bulls power forwards tonight. All three of them. Portis is the biggest risk. Markkanen is the safe pick. Mirotic is the wild card with the highest upside.

Derrick Favors ($5,900): Favors put up 76.75 DraftKings points in only 60 minutes against Denver so far this year. The matchup is right again with Millsap still out. Favors has been less effective with Gobert back, but this is a place to take a chance on him.

Dark Horses:

Jordan Mickey ($4,200): The minutes are going to be there with James Johnson and Whiteside both out. However, Mickey has not put up consistent numbers at all. he has been as low at 11 and as high as 27 with those two out. However, if you need a cheap pick with crazy inconsistent upside, Mickey is out there.

Pascal Siakam ($3,800): Siakam has four straight games of 20 or more DraftKings points. There are plenty of guys taking minutes in the Toronto frontcourt, so Siakam lacks upside. However, if he gets you 20-25, are you really going to complain for this price?

Adreian Payne ($3,600): Payne was more productive after Vucevic got hurt than Biyombo was. This could turn out to be a by matchup basis, but it looks like Payne is going to be the one to use since Biyombo and Speights are not offensively oriented players.

My pick: Markkanen(PF), Payne(F); Siakam(PF), Payne(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Andre Drummond ($9,300): The Pacers are statistically the worst team in the league against centers. Fortunately for them, Drummond is not an elite scorer. Therefore, Drummond has been almost exactly at 5x value in each of the three games against Indiana this year. You know what you are getting from Drummond tonight.

Marc Gasol ($8,700): If there is such a thing as a disappionting 41.25 DraftKings point night at this price, Gasol had it last week against the Suns. Again, this is a matchup that really favors Gasol, just like Drummond’s favors him. Which one will break out for that big night? The best bet may be neither one.

Honorable Mention:

Myles Turner ($6,700): Turner racked up 41 DraftKings points on Drummond and the Pistons in the last meeting after laying an egg against them in the first two games. I guess it comes down to which line you trust, his first two or his last one? Turner has really good upside, but carries plenty of risk. If Whiteside plays, I’m avoiding this completely and playing Whiteside.

Pau Gasol ($6,400): Gasol has been a monster over the last two games, racking up 100.5 DraftKings points in two games. However, Gasol played just 22 minutes in the last game that Kawhi Leonard played. Gasol is a much better play if Kawhi it out.

Kelly Olynyk ($6,100): Olynyk isn’t going to do to anyone else what he did to his former team last week, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t use him. That huge game jacked his price up, but with all of the injuries in the Miami frontcourt, Olynyk is still playing a lot of minutes and putting up close to 5x value, even at this price.

Dark Horses:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,500): WCS finally has a somewhat steady role in this offense. He put up 30 DraftKings points on the Clippers the first time around. With the way the playing time is shaking down right now, there really is no reason he can’t do it again tonight.

Bismack Biyombo ($3,800): Whether Biyombo or Payne get the larger role in this game is likely going to be decided by whether Whiteside plays or not. If the Heat are without Whiteside, they are undersized, which favors Payne. If not, They are going to need Biyombo and Speights to deal with Whiteside.

My pick: Turner(C), Drummond(C)

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