The Nets have unearthed a star-level point guard
By Miles Wray
It is a genuine achievement for any player to crack the front page leaderboard of ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus rankings, the top 40 players of the season. One cannot simply coast onto the list thanks to a strong reputation alone, as Carmelo Anthony (No. 110), Devin Booker (No. 156) or Andre Iguodala (No. 210) can attest.
The top 40 shows where the absolute nexus of power is in the league at any given moment. You’ll see a few types of players on this list. There are the one-named alphas — Steph, LeBron, Giannis, Harden. There are the impressively savvy rookies — Ben Simmons, Jayson Tatum, Jordan Bell. There are the battle-tested veterans who drop in a mostly error-free 15-20 minutes in a supporting role each night — David West, Zaza Pachulia, Kyle Korver. And there are the semi-underground champions of the analytics world — Robert Covington, Nikola Jokic, Clint Capela.
And, currently sitting at slot No. 15, there is exactly one player who was toiling away in the G League as recently as last season. It’s Spencer Dinwiddie of the Brooklyn Nets. Most of his statistical peers are on long-term deals and effectively get to decide where they may move across the league. Dinwiddie got cut last October. By the Bulls.
READ MORE: Nylon Notebook: Ball-movers, black holes and Warriors blocks
It’s no mirage or mistake to have Dinwiddie rated this high. Dinwiddie’s assist and turnover numbers are making some serious headway in the all-time record books. For instance, per 100 possessions, Dinwiddie is averaging more than 11 assists (11.5) and under three turnovers (2.5). That would only be the 24th time since turnovers were first recorded (1973-74) that any player managed to do this — and the last time was a full decade ago by a 26-year-old Jose Calderon.
Also, Dinwiddie is 6-foot-6, averaging more than six assists per game (6.5), and has an assist-to-turnover ratio higher than four (4.69). No other player at least that tall has ever combo-ed these two stats together — and Andre Iguodala and Magic Johnson are the only players that tall to rack up so many assists with an assist-to-turnover ratio of better than three.
More importantly, Dinwiddie is not just accomplishing obscure statistical feats as his passing translates to tangible success for the Nets. So far, having Dinwiddie on the floor or on the bench has determined if the Nets play like a playoff team or like a lottery-bound travesty. (Although Russell was presumably still adjusting to his new team in his limited appearances, the same can’t be said about his play.)
The root of Dinwiddie’s offensive success is his doctorate-level mastery of the pick-and-roll. Here are a few signature elements of his game:
Stockton-Malone 2.0
Dinwiddie has an absolutely elite partner in the pick-and-roll and, improbably, it is Tyler Zeller. For real. Zeller has taken the starting center job away from Timofey Mozgov because he makes sweet, sweet basketball music with Dinwiddie. There are 50 players in the league who have had at least 50 shots as the roll man in the pick-and-roll, and Zeller is third among all of them in points per possession (1.31), trailing only Clint Capela (1.36) and Julius Randle (1.39).
The key to Zeller’s success appears to be a 1957-ish-style push shot from 8-10 feet away. It’s not sexy — but it does give Zeller a clean look before the defender can get close enough to actually bother his shot:
Partnering with Zeller may in fact be the secret to Dinwiddie’s success. According to Darryl Blackport’s pbpstats.com, Brooklyn is +76 across the 342 minutes when the pair are on the floor together. But when Dinwiddie is out there without Zeller? Minus-19 across 495 minutes.
The Dinwiddie Deluxe: Punish the Helper
What’s interesting about Dinwiddie’s operating procedure in the pick-and-roll is he almost passes to the roller as something of a second option. If any of the other defenders across the floor are helping — or even leaning towards helping — on the pick-and-roll, Dinwiddie will find and exploit them with his impeccable court vision:
Dinwiddie himself described this ability last April on BBall Breakdown:
"When I drive, my focus is the four defenders besides my man. I feel like every time — and not in an arrogant, sort of cocky way — but every time you can beat your guy, right? So what’s coming next is the main thing."
The Next Level: The Too-Tall Scorer
What’s interesting about Dinwiddie’s effectiveness in making the Nets offense hum along is he is not such an efficient scorer. Out of 133 qualified guards in the league this year, Dinwiddie ranks a quiet 74th overall in True Shooting percentage.
The good news is, as we see each year with a whole unlikely new crop of big men, it’s possible for an effective deep shooting stroke to be learned midway through a professional career. It’s going to be crucial for Dinwiddie to add this to his offensive arsenal because, since he is standing 6-foot-6, he can shoot right over the top of an in-position opposing point guard:
So What Now?
Because Sean Marks and the Nets signed Dinwiddie when he was an off-the-street free agent, he is on an absurdly team-friendly contract. Dinwiddie’s price tag is just $1.5 million this year, and jumps all the way up to $1.6 million in 2018-19. Oh, and next year’s deal is fully non guaranteed.
Dinwiddie’s sudden emergence has forced Marks into a crucial long-term decision as he rebuilds the Nets. Elite teams like the Cavaliers and Spurs have been dealing with chronic health issues at point guard, and Dinwiddie’s 2018-19 deal means he would be no trade deadline rental. Does Marks look to trade Dinwiddie for a player or draft asset who can help into the deep future — or does he proactively move to lock up Dinwiddie on a more player-friendly extension?
This front office dilemma is only a dilemma if you assume, as I am assuming, Dinwiddie is a capable starting point guard for years to come, and that we are not just seeing a 30-game flash in the pan. It makes a certain kind of sense, in hindsight, that Dinwiddie would not flourish in the league until now. As a college junior, in 2013-14, he tore his ACL but entered the draft anyway, and was selected by the Pistons early in the second round. In 2014-15, Dinwiddie could barely get any minutes on a Detroit roster stuffed to the brim with point guards as Reggie Jackson, D.J. Augustin, Brandon Jennings and John Lucas III were all on the roster. With a playoff-caliber squad in 2015-16, Stan Van Gundy opted to trust Steve Blake behind Jackson and Jennings, instead of the unproven Dinwiddie.
Next: Tyrone Wallace may parlay a '5x5' game into an NBA shot
In 2016-17, Dinwiddie performed well with the Nets after getting picked up by the squad in December — meaning 2017-18 is the first season he was properly prepared by his coaching staff, in the offseason, to be a rotation regular. Russell’s early injury coupled with Jeremy Lin going down as well, really parted the seas for Dinwiddie, bumping him up into the starting role. That’s a long time spent waiting his turn, but he’s still only 24-years-old and is geared up for a monstrous prime.
No, I don’t think the right question is: “Is Dinwiddie for real?” I think the question is to look at the Nets roster and wonder who else is going to join Dinwiddie in making the most out of their golden opportunity in Brooklyn.
Stats are via Basketball-Reference and as of games played on December 25. Video from 3ball.