What can the Cavaliers expect from Isaiah Thomas offensively?

CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 03: Isaiah Thomas
CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 03: Isaiah Thomas /
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The Cavaliers have already experimented with three different point guards this season. They began the season with Derrick Rose in the starting lineup, but he had to be replaced after three weeks because he suffered an ankle injury that he has yet to return from. His replacement, Iman Shumpert, only lasted five games before going down with his own injury, which paved the way for Jose Calderon to be named the starter within the first month of the regular season.

Despite being a 36-year-old who doesn’t have the athleticism of Rose or the defensive versatility of Shumpert, Calderson has actually been a better fit alongside LeBron James and Kevin Love in the starting lineup. Whereas opponents outscored the Cavaliers when Rose (-52) and Shumpert (-5) were starters, they have held steady in Calderon’s minutes (+3) because of how easily he has fit in with everyone else on the roster. His success in that regard bodes well for Isaiah Thomas, who is expected to return from a hip injury in the first week of January.

Thomas is a blend of Rose and Calderon in the best way possible. Like Rose, Thomas can get to the basket at will when he is healthy. He was one of the league leaders with 16.8 drives per game last season and he made 50.7 percent of his shot attempts in those situations, putting him on the same page as Kyrie Irving, Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Wall and Kawhi Leonard to name a few All-Stars. Thomas also finished behind only Russell Westbrook, Goran Dragic, James Harden and John Wall by completing 422 passes on 1,227 drives, and he finished behind a similar group of players when it came to turning those passes into assists.

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The last part distinguishes Thomas from Rose, who can get tunnel vision when he drives to the basket. Rose recorded a total of 12 assists in his seven games with the Cavaliers this season, and his assist rate of 10.2 percent is similar to players like Aaron Gordon, Ekpe Udoh and Avery Bradley. Thomas isn’t a volume passer by any means — he finished behind 29 players in assist percentage last season — but he’s a more willing and more capable passer than Rose in those situations.

It’s an important skill for any point guard to have in today’s NBA, especially when they’re on a team that relies on 3-pointers to generate around a third of its scoring. In the same ways that the Celtics spaced the floor for Thomas with at least three shooters at all times, the Cavaliers can surround him with similar shooters in J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, Jae Crowder, Jeff Green, Kevin Love and Channing Frye. Tristan Thompson does hurt their spacing at times as a non-shooting center, but he’s a decent finisher around the basket who provides some vertical spacing.

Besides, the Cavaliers can still score at a high rate with one non-shooter on the floor. They only start to have problems when there are two non-shooters on the floor. It’s why they struggled with Rose and Shumpert, as they have combined to miss 21 of their 24 catch-and-shoot attempts from the perimeter this season. It’s a stark difference from Calderon, who has relied on those looks to create over half of his shot attempts since his promotion. He has made 55.9 percent of those opportunities.

It’s another important skill for a lead ball-handler on the Cavaliers to have considering James basically plays the role of a point guard from the small forward position. Not only does he have one of the highest usage rates in the NBA this season, he ranks behind only Russell Westbrook with 18.7 potential assists per game. It doesn’t mean there isn’t room for another high-usage guard in the starting lineup. They just need to be able to play without the ball in their hands to succeed alongside him.

Thomas should have less of an issue making that adjustment because he’s an excellent all-around shooter. He made 41.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and 35.7 percent of his pull-up 3-pointers last season. He also made 54.9 percent of his 2-point pull-ups. Those three shots represented 57.8 percent of his field goal attempts on the season and set him up well to thrive in an off-ball role in Brad Stevens’ system. By generating a considerable amount of his points off of screens, handoffs and spot-ups — three play types that play to his strengths as a shooter — more than 40.0 percent of his baskets were unassisted last season.

That was on the higher side amongst players at his position. Irving, for example, created 69.6 percent of his baskets himself last season. Those tools give Thomas the versatility to function as a shooting guard when needed, and he should get more open looks playing next to James than he did as the focal point of the Celtics offense.

What remains to be seen is how the Cavaliers make room for the rest of Thomas’ game. While he does provide tremendous value off ball, he’s still at his best with the ball in his hands. Thomas had one of the highest usage rates in the NBA last season — higher than both Irving and James — and he does most of his damage as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls, where he ranked in the 94.1 percentile with an average of 1.04 points per pick-and-roll possession.

It could impact Kevin Love the most, both positively and negatively. On one hand, going from Calderon to Thomas will almost certainly reduce his touches. (Love’s usage rate with Calderon on the floor as a starter is 29.2 percent. It was only 22.6 percent when Rose was on the court as a starter). On the other, Thomas and Love have all the makings of a great pick-and-pop partnership based on Love’s ability to space the floor as a big man and Thomas’ ability to get into the paint as a guard.

Love should be able to replace Horford’s role on handoffs as well, which made up 11.1 percent of Thomas’ scoring last season. It could help unlock Love’s playmaking in ways we haven’t seen since he was with the Timberwolves by giving him more opportunities to make plays for himself and others at the elbows, especially when Thomas and Love are on the court together without James.

As for how Thomas fits in with James, 1-3 pick-and-rolls with Thomas as the ball handler and James as the screener on a spaced floor should be unstoppable. The same goes for 3-1 pick-and-rolls with James as the ball handler and Thomas as the screener. Thomas doesn’t score as frequently as Irving in isolation, but he’s a similar 1-on-1 threat as a three-level scorer. Together, they should be able to pick most mismatches apart depending on who switches onto who.

All of this is dependent on whether or not Thomas returns to full health. At his best, Thomas should have no problem fitting in with James and Love. He’s one of the elite shooters at the point guard position and he isn’t someone who needs to be at the center of every offensive possession to succeed. He is a high-volume scorer, but one who gets his points within the flow of the offense at an efficient level.

His versatility, however, will be put to the test in Cleveland because there is no shortage of playmakers on the Cavaliers. In addition to playing alongside James in the starting lineup, Thomas will need to figure out how he can coexist next to Dwyane Wade, who has emerged as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate this season. Wade has been a big reason why the Cavaliers have survived without James on the court, and it’s because they’ve turned him into the point guard of the second unit.

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Either way, Thomas has the potential to complement the playmakers the Cavaliers already have on their roster with his shooting and make them even more potent offensively with his pick-and-roll and isolation play. While there will likely be an adjustment period, he could replace Irving’s production in time.