The tale of two Dak Prescotts

The truth of the matter is that it’s not one single thing. The Atlanta Falcons game likely messed with Prescott’s psyche some as he was hit so often in that game that it took him a few weeks to ever settle down in the pocket. Nearly any quarterback would have struggled in that game as Chaz Green and Byron Bell allowed a total of 11 pressures, seven total quarterback hits and six sacks on 42 dropbacks per Pro Football Focus. Prescott was hit often and was hit hard. That game was by far the most physical that he’s ever played in his career.

Without Tyron Smith in the lineup, Prescott really struggled statistically. Smith has started 13 games this season, but he came out of Sunday’s game early after playing just three snaps. He only managed to start and finish 11 games this season. Despite the small sample size, you can see how much Smith’s absence hurt Prescott this season:

Dak Prescott With Tyron Smith in 2017:

11 games (7-4):  214 of 338  (63.3) for 2,421 yards and 21 TDs and 6 INTs.

Passer Rating of 98.1

Sacked 13 times

Yards Per Attempt of 7.19

Dak Prescott Without Tyron Smith in 2017

4 games (1-3): 77 of 122 for 715 yards and 0 TDs and 7 INTs

Passer Rating of 55.2

Sacked 18 times

Yards Per Attempt of 5.86

As you can see, the numbers are staggering. With a healthy Tyron Smith, Dak Prescott was as good as any quarterback in the league this season. In those 11 games, the Cowboys averaged more than 27 points per game. But without him, the offense just crumbled. In those four combined games in which Smith did not play or could not finish the game, the Cowboys averaged just 12 points per game; a remarkable difference.

We can dig further into those splits to show how much Smith meant to the Cowboys’ offense. According to Pro Football Focus’ signature stats, with Tyron Smith in the lineup (for more than 40 snaps), Prescott had a passer rating of 84.9 when under pressure, the third highest in the league during those weeks.

But when Smith was out of the lineup, that number significantly dropped. Prescott saw his passer rating dip all the way down to 31.2, the third-worst in the NFL. His numbers while under pressure in those four weeks? 23-51 for 296 yards, zero touchdowns, and four interceptions. He was also sacked 20 times on 78 dropbacks. It wasn’t pretty.

Next: NFL Power Rankings: 30 Most Dominant Teams Ever

Even when Prescott was kept clean he struggled. In those four games without Smith,  Prescott had a passer rating of just 71 when he felt no pressure. Once again, that was the third-worst passer rating in the league during those four weeks. Only Jay Cutler (69.7) and DeShone Kizer (64) had worse passer ratings, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Yes, the receivers got worse. Yes, not having Ezekiel Elliott hurt the offense. But more than anything, the loss of Tyron Smith killed Prescott’s confidence and the Cowboys’ offense. Assuming Smith can get healthy next season, the Cowboys’ offense should be able to reach the level of play they had achieved earlier in the season. All hope is not lost for Prescott, but clearly, he’s more reliant on the pieces around him than we might have wanted to admit.