DraftKings NBA picks December 30: Is Boogie in for another huge night?

There are another seven games tonight for our DraftKings touranments. Three of the four stars that were in action last night are again tonight, so make sure you check lineups. Tis the season to be sitting!

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($8,300): The matchup is right, but Simmons has not topped 35 DraftKings points in the last four games. The rookie has hit a wall of sorts right now, so it is prudent to let him work this out somewhere besides your DFS lineup. However, Simmons still possesses great upside. You don’t usually like expensive dart throws, but that’s what Simmons is right now.

Elfrid Payton ($7,100): On paper, this is a bad matchup for Payton. The Heat are in the top ten in the league defending the point, but Payton has 75.75 DraftKings points against them in two games. He put up 39 on the Heat just four days ago, and that is his lowest tally of the last three games. Payton is rolling right now, and looks pretty safe here.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell ($6,900): Mitchell was 11-16 from the floor in the first meeting with Cleveland, but he only had 31.5 DraftKings points due to turnovers and the inability to do anything but score. He will likely drop quite a few points here again, but there is some risk involved here.

Jamal Murray ($6,200): Murray has at least 5x value in each of the last three games and four of the last five. He has topped 6x value in all but one of those. This is a great matchup again for Murray. If you are in this price range, your choices are basically Murray and Rondo. Rondo offers little but assists, while Murray is a good scorer and a great rebounder for a guard.

Dark Horses:

Ish Smith ($5,500): Smith shone filling in for Reggie Jackson on Thursday night. This is not an ideal matchup for him with the Spurs, but considering that Smith only needs 27.5 DraftKings points for value, I still like Smith here. He has ample upside as well.

Tony Parker ($4,100): I’m not sure how much I trust Harrison against the Warriors, so I will go with Parker. He gets consistent minutes and a constant 5x value, but lacks upside. Still. he will be dealing with a Pistons team without their starting point guard, so Parker may even have a little bit of upside tonight.

My pick: Payton(PG), Smith(G); Parker(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

C.J. McCollum ($7,200): The Warriors have locked down Tyreke Evans so far this year, so I would rather take a step down salary wise to C.J. McCollum has been big with Lillard out, and with Lillard still questionable, this could be a low risk proposition. We may or may not get confirmation on Lillard before lock with the 7:30 eastern tip. I like this because it covers you if Lillard is out without taking the risk on Napier, and even if Lillard plays, you still have C.J. against the second worst team in the league defending shooting guards.

Josh Richardson ($6,500): It is likely that Waiters is out again, so the incredible run for Richardson will continue. He was the only Miami player that could find the basket from beyond ten feet last night. Now he gets a great matchup against Orlando. I’m a big fan of Richardson for this price.

Honorable Mention:

Will Barton ($6,000): So, you want to use a Denver guard or two against a Sixers perimeter that has issues with defense. How do you choose? I can help you out! All three are practically the same price. Murray is the hot hand, Harris in the most consistent, but is consistently under value. Barton is the wild card. He can drop 15 or 50. Use at your own risk, but the upside is pretty high.

Tyler Johnson ($5,800): Johnson is putting up an insane amount of shots with Waiters out. Most of the time his aim is true, but it wasn’t last night. That could stymie ownership a bit, and I hope it does. Johnson is a solid value play tonight.

Courtney Lee ($5,200): Of course, if you want a sure thing, you turn to Lee. Lee has at least 24 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games. This is a pretty good matchup with the Pelicans here in what promises to be a high scoring game. Lee has plenty of upside tonight.

Dark Horses:

Andrew Harrison ($4,600): Okay, so I flopped a little about Harrison. I still don’t really trust him, but he has been a good fill in with Mike Conley out. I kind of think Harrison will not draw much of the Warriors’ attention with Evans out there, so Harrison could be a solid value play once again, albeit with little upside.

Frank Ntilikina ($3,900): Ntilikina continues to get solid run with the Nets. Jack is the safe play, but Ntilikina has far more upside. Ntilikina has 57 DraftKings points over the last two games, one of which was against the Spurs. He is performing at a high level right now.

My pick: McCollum(SG); Ntilikina(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,500): LeBron got back on track, whacking the Kings with a triple double. That was his first in over a year! If you ignore the Christmas debacle, LeBron has ten straight games of more than 60 DraftKings points. He went for 62.25 in the first meeting with the Jazz, which is a normal day at the office for him lately.

Kevin Durant ($10,300): Durant has averaged 47.8 DraftKings points in his two meetings with Memphis this year. That is under value, but I fully expect Curry to be on a strict minutes limit. The Grizzlies held him to that with Curry in the lineup at full strength. KD hasn’t shouldered as much of the load with Draymond back, but he is still a sure 5x value in any game that isn’t a blowout.

Honorable Mention:

Kawhi Leonard ($6,300): The Spurs are part of the early tip tonight, so we can pencil Kawhi in. I like Leonard at this price if he is up to around 28 minutes, which he should be. Detroit is not a great defensive team either. If Leonard is in there, this is a risk that I’m willing to take with him this cheap.

Rodney Hood ($5,700): Hood is maddeningly inconsistent, but he is coming off of a good game an facing a weak perimeter team. The upside is there for those of you chasing big cash in a GPP, but I wouldn’t touch him in cash games.

Kyle Anderson ($5,100): Anderson has shown the ability to produce when the Spurs put him in the lineup. Kawhi carries a probable designation today, but the Spurs will be without Rudy Gay for a while. With Leonard on a minutes limit, Anderson should still see plenty of run at a reasonable price.

Dark Horses:

Trey Lyles ($4,900): Lyles has been huge with Paul Millsap out, even going so far as to push Faried out of the rotation again (not that Mike Malone really needs a reason to bench Faried….he does it all the time). Even though this is not a great matchup, with Covington questionable, it’s looking better and better. I expect to see Saric on Lyles more anyway, so this matchup isn’t as bad as it may look.

Joe Ingles ($4,700): The world may fluctuate around him, but Ingles plays 30 minutes a game, and often hits value. He is nothing flashy, but Ingles did notch 31 DraftKings points on the Cavs the first time around. Ingles is a decent value play for the price.

Maurice Harkless ($3,500): Harkless has played 20 or more minutes in three straight games now, and put up well above value in the last two. I am a little concerned about what will happen when Lillard returns, but it seems as though Harkless has played well enough to stick for a Portland bench that hasn’t exactly been a consistent unit.

My pick: Leonard(SF); James(SF), Ingles(G)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,500): It’s a night of bad matchups at the top of the position. I don’t trust both of the towers against the Knicks, and if I use one, it will be Boogie. Porzingis against Brow is a risk. Love was shut down by Utah in the first meeting. And honestly, I’m not crazy about this with Kahwi playing, but the Pistons have struggled against power forwards. Aldridge put up 37.5 in the first meeting with Detroit. That is right at 5x value.

Draymond Green ($7,400): On paper, this is a good matchup, but Green didn’t come close to value in his first game with Memphis. With Curry limited, I still think Green has enough upside to make him worth a look at a position that looks rather weak tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Kelly Olynyk ($6,300): I am willing to pardon the Heat for just a terrible all around performance last night. James Johnson is still out, so Olynyk will see plenty of run tonight. He has 64.25 DraftKings points over two games with Orlando so far this season. This matchup could be even better without Vucevic in there.

Dario Saric ($6,200): Saric could see even more run than usual if Covington is held out. At any rate, Saric had a big game against Portland on Thursday after Covington left. There is some risk here since we wont have the Philly lineup by lineup lock, but Saric is a solid play even if Covington is in.

Derrick Favors ($5,600): Favors missed the first meeting with Cleveland. Considering the Cavs are statistically the worst team in the world (or at least the NBA) in points allowed to power forwards, I’m a big fan of Favors here. Favors has at least 5x value in four straight games.

Dark Horses:

John Collins ($5,000): Another game, another 6x value from Collins. Ilyasova still sees more minutes, but I much prefer the upside of Collins if you aren’t going to use them both. Portland is not great up front, so there is pretty good upside here for both players.

Jordan Bell ($4,700): Once again, Bell played good minutes, and produced a little over 5x value. There is decent upside for him on this team, and Bell seems to have carved out a nice role up front. Regardless of if he starts or not, Bell is a very good value play at this price.

Jarell Martin ($4,500): Martin has 55 DraftKings points over the last two games starting for JaMychal Green. He has decent upside against the Warriors here. Don’t expect a miracle, but another 30 DraftKings points isn’t out of the question.

My pick: Saric(PF), Favors(F); Collins(PF), Bell(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,700): Porzingis could have a solid night both offensively and defensively against Davis, but there is no way Enes Kanter can handle Boogie. Cousins dropped 83 DraftKings points last night. He isn’t going to do that again, but i sure see 60’s in his future.

Nikola Jokic ($8,600): You know, I would almost prefer this matchup if Embiid were playing. Opposing centers have gone at Embiid with moderate success lately. Still, this is a very good spot for Jokic against the ragtag centers that Philadelphia is going to throw out there.

Honorable Mention:

Marc Gasol ($8,000): Statistically, the Warriors have been good against opposing centers. Not this one. Gasol has 102.75 DraftKings points in two games against Golden State this year. This offense revolves around Evans and Gasol with Conley out, and Draymond can only stop one of them. Gasol could be a solid value, even with his price this high.

Pau Gasol ($7,000): Gasol has four straight games of at least 6x value. He has another pretty good matchup with Draymond tonight, but the problem could lie with Kawhi’s return and how much of the scoring he chews up. I would prefer to find the extra $1,000 and play the other Gasol. Unless Kawhi is held out. Then it’s all Kung Pao all the time!

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800): Nurkic saw his minutes increase to 28 on Thursday despite a brief sojourn to the locker room. He has another great matchup here against the Hawks, who are still without Dewayne Dedmon. Really, Portland has no reason to limit his minutes anymore, so I expect Nurkic to be back to normal playing time very soon, if not tonight.

Dark Horses:

Hassan Whiteside ($6,700): Yes, Whiteside is higher priced than you normally see here, but he could be a great value at this level. Just be aware that Whiteside just returned from a 13 game absence and the Heat played last night. However, if Whiteside is in there, I’m very tempted. He was the only bright spot for the Heat last night, and only played 20 minutes. He still hit still came very close to 5x value.

Bismack Biyombo ($5,300): Biyombo has been outstanding in the first two games with Vucevic out. He has 60.25 DraftKings points in those two games, mostly because of his defensive prowess. Biyombo has 25 rebounds and six blocks in that time. #bitchsmack….cause that’s what he does to the basketball when it’s in his space.

Richaun Holmes ($4,200): You may as well just draw straws between Trevor Booker, Holmes, and Amir Johnson tonight. Johnson will likely start, but it has been Holmes that has done better in games with Embiid out, including 30.25 DraftKings points the last time Embiid sat. Holmes has been able to fend off Booker so far, but that could change at any time.

My pick: Nurkic(C), Biyombo(UTIL); Cousins(C), Biyombo(UTIL)

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