FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 17

Welcome back to FanDuel NFL Lineups, for the final week of the National Football League regular season, Week 17.  We’re a Daily Fantasy Football column focused on top picks and best value for your weekly FanDuel NFL lineups.  We arm you with information for a big FanDuel NFL payday each week.

Last week had some great validations of our top picks, some disappointments, surprises, and missed opportunities.  In the end, winning most cash games was feasible, but winning GPP’s would’ve been difficult, unless you stacked Dion Lewis (29.80 FanDuel NFL points) with Todd Gurley II.

Speaking of Gurley, he was our top pick again at running back, and he didn’t disappoint.  Todd ended the game against the Titans in Tennessee with 118 rushing yards, ten receptions, 158 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.  In total, Gurley had 44.6 FanDuel NFL points, by far the most of any player option.

If you stacked Le’Veon Bell with Gurley, as we suggested, you added an additional 18.2 FanDuel NFL points with 69 rushing yards, a touchdowns, and five receptions for 28 receiving yards.  But Dion Lewis was a surprise with the second most points of any player, including the running back position, followed by the Cinicinnati Bengal’s Giovani Bernard who piled up 26.3 FanDuel NFL points, the third most of any player.

While many of our picks worked out, several did not.  Nick Foles had a disappointing outcome against the Raiders.  Foles only had 163 passing yards with a touchdown, and threw an interception.  So at the end of the game, Nick had a terrible 9.52 points, well below expectations.  Also, fading Julio Jones and his 18.4 FanDuel NFL points hurt.  But Jones was low-owned in many cash and GPP’s due to his inconsistency this season.

Week 17 is going to be tricky, because it’s hard to gauge how long some of the typical starters, many NFL DFS optimal lineup studs, will play each game.  Some, like Todd Gurley, won’t be suiting up at all.  So we already know guys like Malcolm Brown or Patrick Mahomes are great value targets for FanDuel NFL this week.

But how well will they produce?  Also, for those starting, like Zach Ertz or Ben Roethlisberger, how long will they play if their team takes any meaningful lead?  There’s a lot to consider this week.

With every NFL game scheduled to start between 1pm ET and 4:30pm ET, we have 16 teams to pick through for our ‘Main’ slate lineups, and cut down our slates to two exciting parts of the day, on New Years Eve.  This is one of the best NFL Sunday schedules I can remember.  Now, let’s get start on your NFL DFS optimal lineup with the Quarterbacks…

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 17 – Quarterbacks

Before we get to the top picks and fades, immediately take Jared Goff, Alex Smith, and Ben Roethlisberger off your list of potential quarterbacks to play this week.  We know for certain Goff and Smith aren’t playing, and it appears very unlikely Big Ben will see the field on Sunday.

Top Picks

The Seahawks need help, but they also have no chance of making the playoffs if they don’t beat the Cardinals.  So we can expect Russell Wilson ($8,700) and the Seahawks to attempt to develop their best game-plan of the season in Seattle, where they’re hosting a tough Cardinals defense.

Wilson is expensive this week and he has been unimpressive over the last two weeks, with two straight games below 15 FanDuel NFL points.  But Russell threw for 238 passing yards, added 19 rushing yard, and completed two touchdown passes against the Cardinals in Arizona, earlier in November.In total, Wilson had 19.42 FanDuel NFL points the last time they played the Cardinals, and it created a springboard for great performance the following four weeks.

Patrick Peterson and Tramon Williams are playing at a ‘high quality’ level for corner backs this season.  But Tyrann Mathieu has been about average this year, and when the Seahawks have three-wide, they create a gap on the field with the Cardinals line backers and Harlan Miller as safety struggling this year.  So while the Cardinals have some elite talent on the field, don’t be fooled.  They’re struggling significantly in some parts of their defense.  Wilson should have 20+ points on Sunday.

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The last time the Saints saw the Buccaneers was in New Orleans, early in November.  During the game, Drew Brees ($8,200) threw for 22 receptions on only 27 attempts.  Brees had 263 yards and two touchdowns as well.  Drew totaled 18.72 FanDuel NFL puts against the Bucs that day.

The incredible run game of the Saints, this season, has muted Drew’s passing stats.  But, with the Bucs passing defense playing a little better, yet still vulnerable, and with the Saints needing a win over the Bucs to clinch the division, we expect a big game out of Brees on Sunday.

Aside from a three-interception game against the Chiefs two weeks ago, Philip Rivers ($8,300) has been on fire since early November.  In six of his last seven games, Rivers has scored between 15 and 28 FanDuel NFL points per game.  Philip has healthy receivers, including target machine Keenan Allen.  With two touchdowns this week, in Los Angeles hosting the Raiders, Rivers will have well over 20 points.

Other Top Option

There are better options, but they’re more expensive.  Kirk Cousins ($7,600) piled up nearly 300 passing yards and three touchdowns against a good Broncos passing defense last week.  This week, the Redskins travel to New York to play one of the worst passing and rushing defenses in the NFL, the ‘football’ Giants.  It may seem like the Skins season is over, but it didn’t look like they thought so last week.  And with a win this week, they climb to 8-8, a stat I’m sure Gruden would prefer to have by the close of the season.

Fades

Nick Foles ($7,600) – He may start, and could play at least a half.  The Eagles need to make sure Foles continues to stay in a rhythm now that he’s leading their offense.  But it’s unlikely Nick plays a full game, and he didn’t look sharp last week.

Case Keenum ($7,700) – He’s looked more like a game-manager over the last two weeks.  Also, the Bears passing defense is surprisingly good this season, and Keenum struggled against the Bears earlier in the year.

Dak Prescott ($7,800) – First, I’m not buying the narrative that the Eagles will rest mos of their starters this week, at home, against the Cowboys.  That is a terrible message to send to your team heading into the playoffs, especially with a bye coming and for your defensive unit.  So, expect the Eagles defense to look solid again this week.  Also, Dak has had only two solid games, and one great game in the last nine weeks.  Elliott only sat out of six games.  Something is wrong with Prescott this season.

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 17 – Running Backs

Top Picks

Alvin Kamara ($8,800) is easily the top running back this week, with so many elite runners taking most or all of their game off this Sunday.  Kamara is now averaging nearly 17 FanDuel NFL points-per-game as a rookie, all while fellow back Mark Ingram ($8,400) is somehow also averaging over 16 FanDuel NFL points.

Ingram is the typical call around the goalline, but Kamara does so many things within the Saints offense, including catching a lot of passes from Brees, that he’ll likely have another great game against the Bucs, while trying to clinch the division for his team.  You could play either on your team this week, but Alvin is our top back.

Arguably, the Bills are playing for more than the Saints this week.  The Bills need the Bengals or Titans to fall, but if they do the Bills have a door wide open for them to make the playoffs with a win.

So we know LeSean McCoy ($8,200) will be on the field against this Sunday, and will see another 20 or so carries.  McCoy has also seen five to seven targets from Taylor, when he’s playing quarterback.  This is almost a slam-dunk 20 FanDuel NFL point play, as long as McCoy is healthy, against the Dolphins in Miami this week.

With an MCL sprain, Titans DeMarco Murray is out this week.  That opens the door wide open for Derrick Henry ($5,800) to have a huge game on a very cheap salary.  The Jaguars defense has tightened up lately with the run game, but they’re still vulnerable.  Also, while the Jags have little to gain from a win, the Titans need a win to clinch a wild card spot.

Henry may only be averaging 7.42 FanDuel NFL points-per-game this season, but with more snaps and carries, he has the potential to average closer to 15 per game.  Derrick could see as much as 20+ carries this week, and may get involved in the passing game as well.  Also, on goal line plays, expect Henry to get the call.  At this salary, Henry has enormous value potential.

Other Top Option

Dion Lewis ($7,200) saw 13 carries for 67 yards and a rushing touchdown two weeks ago against the Steelers.  Dion also had two targets and a reception for 13 yards.  With double-digit FanDuel NFL points in nearly every game over the Pats last seven games (he had two straight 9.2 results), it was starting to appear like Lewis could be a solid play against the Bills.  Boy, was he.

With 24 carries against the Bills, Lewis piled up 129 rushing yards and a touchdown.  Even better, Dion was very involved in the passing game, getting five receptions on five targets for an additional touchdown.  In total, Lewis had just under 30 FanDuel NFL points and was the second leading point scorer among all players in week 16.

This week, the Pats still have something to play for, a top seed in the AFC.  And the Jets are worst than the Bills against the pass, and have struggled to defend the running game as well.  So we have a nearly identical scenario as last week for Lewis, in a game the Pats still need to win.  Expect another big game for Lewis, on a reasonable $7.2K salary.

Fades

Todd Gurley II ($9,800) – Hopefully this is obvious by now.  He’s not playing!  FanDuel likely won’t alert you as he’s a healthy scratch.  There will be several of those today, so keep your eyes on player status.

Le’Veon Bell ($9,500) – See Gurley fade advice above.

Ezekiel Elliott ($8,700) – I appear to be in the minority with this call, but what’s new.  Several things concern me about Elliott this week.  Prescott is struggling, the Eagles know that.  The Cowboys will lean on Elliott, the Eagles know that.  Oh, and the Eagles defense is number in the NFL at stopping the run.  They will be very interested in stopping Elliott this week, regardless of the ‘who will sit’ rumors.

Leonard Fournette ($7,900) – Despite Marrone claiming Fournette will play this weekend, which is may, the Jags have nothing to play for other than beating the Titans in Tennessee and have a better record, optically.  With his persistent injury issues, it’s hard to believe Doug will push Fournette much on Sunday.

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 17 – Wide Receivers

Top Picks

Keenan Allen ($8,600) is averaging a consistent 13.56 FanDuel NFL points-per-game this season.  In fifteen starts this season, Keenan only has one game with less than seven FanDuel NFL points, against the Broncos.

Part of the reason Allen is so consistent, is the number of targets he sees per game, 9.8 per game.  With ten targets a game, even some of the worst hands in football will haul in about four to five receptions per game.

So far, Keenan has 93 receptions for 1,260 (4th in the NFL) and five touchdowns.  The Chargers really need this win at home, so expect Rivers to look at Allen often, against a sub-par passing defense from the Raiders.  Keenan is expensive this week, but he’s worth it in all formats.

Michael Thomas ($8,200) only has 141 targets, six less than Allen, along with 1,151 yards and five touchdowns.  Thomas was often quiet in the first half of the season, not seeing his first 100 yard receiving game this season until week nine.  In the last seven games, Thomas has four with 90+ yards, and three touchdowns in the last four Saints games.

This week, against the Buccaneers, we expect the Saints to throw to Michael often.  With over ten targets, Thomas could hit 100 yards again, and has a shot at his fourth touchdown in five week.  Thomas is a top-three FanDuel NFL wide receiver this week.

In November, we started fading Julio Jones ($8,400).  Even after a tremendous 44.8 FanDuel NFL point result against the Bucs in late November, we knew Jones would struggle with a lot of attention against the Vikings, so faded him again.  But since that game, Julio has been hot.

Over the last three weeks, Matt Ryan is looking Jones way around ten times a game.  With roughly five receptions per game, Jones is averaging around 100 receiving yards in the last three weeks.  Even without a touchdown, Julio piled up 18.4 FanDuel NFL points last week against the Saints.  This week, Jones has another tough match up, but with the Falcons season on the line, expect Ryan and the Falcons to go to Jones often.

Other Top Picks

We didn’t talk much about the Lions passing offense this week, but they could have a good week at home in Detroit against a Packers team whose done for the year.  Marvin Jones Jr. ($7,300) doesn’t get a lot of passing targets per game, typically well under ten.  But Jones is averaging 17.9 yards per catch, second in the NFL and more than any receiver with over 80 receptions this season.  Marvin is a great play today, and isn’t expensive.

Jamison Crowder ($7,000) was quiet this season through the end of October.  But since then, Crowder has quietly been a consistent high-volume target for Cousins, averaging almost ten per game.  Also, Jamison has nearly five receptions per game, and three touchdowns in the last five games.

Crowder may have an 8.81 FanDuel NFL point-per-game average on the season, but he’s only had two games below ten points in the last eight game.  This week, against a horrendous Giants passing defense, expect Cousins to continue to target Jamison often, we they climb to 8-8 on the season.

With DeAndre Hopkins likely done for the season, Will Fuller V ($5,100) has tremendous value on Sunday.  Fuller had an outstanding four game run while DeShaun Watson was taking snaps, with seven touchdowns in just four games.

On Sunday, the Texans play the worst defense in football, the Colts, in Indianapolis.  Expect the Texans to target the young wide-out often, for a huge FanDuel NFL value at receiver this week.

Fades

Doug Baldwin ($7,100) – This season has been frustrating and inconsistent for anyone playing Doug Baldwin in Fantasy Football leagues or DFS NFL.  It’s hard to gauge when Baldwin will have a good game, like he did against a very good Jags passing defense a few weeks ago.  But that game aside, paying for Doug has been very risky, and with a lot of attention from the Cardinals, he may be a terrible pick this week.

A.J. Green ($7,700) – Green hasn’t had a touchdown in over three weeks of football.  Even worse, he caught only 50% of his targets for a total of only 57 yards per game.  Oh, and the Bengals aren’t sure who their starting quarterback should be.

Adam Thielen ($7,400) – We already mentioned how we’re concerned about the Vikings passing offense against the Bears solid defensive backs.  The last time Thielen played the Bears, he only had five receptions from eight targets, and a miserable 34 yards along with no touchdowns.  Don’t expect much this week either.

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Week 17 – Tight End / Kicker / Defense

At tight end, the top player is very obvious.  The New England Patriots still have something to play for an expect to have their starters in most of the game.  Rob Gronkowski ($8,500) is very expensive, but even if he only plays three quarters, he’s easily the most likely to have ten to 20 FanDuel NFL points this week.  But in most lineups, you can’t afford him without giving up a lot.  However, there are plenty of value options at running back and wide receiver (hint, hint).

Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz ($7,100) each could see limited action this week.  In fact, it’s likely Kelce takes a seat with Smith.  Ertz should get some playing time, but don’t expect Zach to play a full four quarters.  Even when Ertz is playing, Trey Burton ($4,800) will see some targets.  In fact, with Ertz maybe sitting in the third, and very likely fourth, quarter(s), Burton could see many targets in the second half at home against the Cowboys.  Burton is a sneaky top value pick at tight end this week.

Yes, former Penn State kicker Sam Ficken ($4,500) looked shaky last week for the Rams.  Ficken missed a field goal and an extra point.  But extras are harder in the NFL, and that was Sam’s first game NFL game of his career, kicking for a playoff bound team.

I’m sure that was swirling around his head while kicking the first few.  This week is Sam’s last chance before the Rams go shopping for another kicker (if they aren’t already).  Ficken will have many opportunities against the 49ers and should be more accurate.

The Los Angeles Chargers ($4,900) defense has been undervalued all season, in our opinion.  We’ve been on the Chargers defense for the last couple of months with great results.  They have some of the leagues best defensive backs, great pass rushers, and a solid linebacker play.

Aside from a terrible result in Kansas City two weeks ago, they’ve been on fire since early November.  With the season on the line, they’re a double-digit FanDuel NFL point opportunity.

So after reviewing all of the options, we put together our favorite lineup for the day. Here’s a look at our Final FanDuel NFL for Week 17 of the 2017 Season:

QB – Cousins (WAS $7,600)

RB – Kamara (NO $8,800)

RB – Lewis (NE $7,200)

WR – Allen (LAC $8,600)

WR – Jones (ATL $8,400)

WR – Fuller V (HOU $5,100)

TE – Burton (PHI $4,800)

K –  Ficken ($4,500)

D –  Los Angeles Chargers ($4,900)

This leaves us with $100 left, maximizing our picks using value in two receiver positions, defense, and kicker and loading up on some big point potential at quarterback, running back, and receiver.

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for the week.  You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NFL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: NBA DFS Picks and Pivots

Have a Happy New Year and good luck with your FanDuel NFL plays for week 17 of the NFL season.  Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!