DraftKings NBA picks January 2: Fade LeBron at your own risk
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks January 2: Fade LeBron at your own risk
We have five NBA games tonight, which makes for smaller DraftKings tournaments. There is still one big star out there and plenty of second tier guys. What is the best approach? Let’s see what we can get!
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I was way too busy to get anything going the last couple of days, so I didn’t even enter lineups myself, let alone put myself in a situation to offer advice. I wont go through this if I can’t do proper research. That wont help you or me.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Tyreke Evans ($8,200): Evans has at least 40 DraftKings points in seven of the last eight games, and has put up 94.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Clippers this season. That bodes well for Evans having another strong night against the Clippers. Last year may have turned you off of Evans. This year he is worth using in most matchups. I promise. This is one of those.
Lou Williams ($7,500): Williams still plays starter minutes even if he doesn’t start, so that isn’t an issue. The return of Griffin? Maybe, but Williams has 63 points in two games with Griffin back. There doesn’t seem to be anything stopping Williams right now, but this price is tough since Williams relies so much on scoring. You may be able to do better elsewhere, but Williams is going to get plenty of looks against Memphis. On a light night, he is likely worth a look.
Honorable Mention:
Dennis Schroder ($7,300): Schroder has at least 5x value in six of the last seven games. For those of us that were waiting for him to show some consistency before deploying, Schroder seems to have found his stroke again. The Suns are still awful defending the point (third worst in the league). This looks like a good spot for Schroder again.
Shabazz Napier ($6,600): Napier has 153.5 DraftKings points in his four starts with Lillard out. Lillard says he is playing, but we have heard that before. Until we hear from the Blazers, Napier is on the radar. If Lillard is cleared, Napier isn’t worth this high of a price even if Lillard’s minutes are limited. However, if Lillard it out, I love Napier at this price.
Isaiah Thomas ($5,900): This is the much awaited Cleveland debut for Thomas, and it could be a pretty good one if Lillard is out. There is plenty of risk involved since Thomas will not start and will likely be on a minutes limit. However, if he gets a shot at the Blazers bench without Napier (assuming he starts), Thomas could hit that 30 DraftKings point mark for value assuming he plays at least half the game.
Dark Horses:
Kyle Anderson ($4,900): Anderson put up 27.5 DraftKings points on the Knicks last Thursday. I don’t see where anything has changed since then. Anderson should be good for 5x value again, and maybe a little more.
Tony Parker ($4,100): Parker has no upside left, but he is a constant source of value at this price. Parker put up 22.5 DraftKings points against this same team last week. So long as he is in the game, Parker is a solid value play, just don’t expect much over 5x.
My pick: Schroder(PG); Evans(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Devin Booker ($9,100): Booker has been on fire since his return, putting up 132.25 DraftKings points in just three games. Atlanta is the worst team in the league defending the shooting guard, so Booker could be in for a huge night. He doesn’t do much besides score though, so there is some risk when using Booker.
C.J. McCollum ($7,300): The status of LIllard shouldn’t matter a whole lot here. Cleveland has struggled to defend the wing all season long. McCollum has two huge games with Lillard out, and one a little below average since he is just 8-21 from the floor in that one. Still, Portland’s offense is built around the guards. McCollum will be plenty of good looks regardless of if Lillard is in there or not.
Honorable Mention:
Kent Bazemore ($6,000): At this level we are faced with two horribly inconsistent options, Bazemore and Nicolas Batum. Bazemore has actually been the more consistent one lately with at least 20 DraftKings points in every game for the last three weeks. Batum can’t say that. Bazemore is the safer play, and definitely has more upside against the Suns.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,500): You know I love me some Hield, but Bogdanovic has outscored him in each of the last six games and nine of ten. Bogdanovic is the most reliable Kings guard tonight if you are looking to use one against the horrible Charlotte perimeter defense.
Dark Horses:
Frank Ntilikina ($4,300): Frank ran circles around the elderly Spurs last week to the tune of 35.25 DraftKings points. Ntilikina is still in a timeshare with Jarrett Jack, but the minutes are more even now. There is plenty of upside here with less risk than before.
Marco Belinelli ($3,800): Using someone that is strictly a bench shooter is always risky. Just ask anyone that has played Austin Rivers or Jordan Clarkson this year. However Belinelli has one of the better matchups that he can get against Phoenix. He is worth a look if you don’t mind some risk. On the bright side, Belinelli has three straight games of at least 6x value.
My pick: Bogdanovic(SG), Ntilikina(G), Belinelli(UTIL); Bazemore(SG), Ntilikina(G)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,700): Forget the price on a slate this small. The odds that LeBron will outscore everyone else are astronomically high, and there is plenty of value on this slate to put him in your lineups with a solid team around him. It’s going to be tough to fade LeBron tonight. You are taking a big risk if you do. Betting against him to not be the highest scorer tonight isn’t strong odds.
T.J. Warren ($6,800): Let’s not kid ourselves. Warren isn’t going to be anywhere near LeBron’s output, but that isn’t the point. Will LeBron outscore Warren by 40%? Then it becomes tricky. Warren has at least 32 DraftKings points in five of the last six games. So will LeBron score 45.6? The only time James has been under that in the last month is on Christmas Day. So you could make the case that James is the safer play, but by that logic, Warren has far more upside. If he hits 40 again like he has in three of those, James would need 56.
Honorable Mention:
Kawhi Leonard ($6,700): Leonard’s price jumped more than it should have on the heels of back to back 27.5 DraftKings points outings. The fact is that I will be surprised if Leonard sees 30 minutes, which makes is a sizeable challenge for him to hit value at this price. That said, Leonard was one of the best small forwards in the league last year, which is saying a lot. That potential is still there.
Taurean Prince ($5,500): Prince has 86 DraftKings points in his last two games, and he didn’t get to play Phoenix in either one of those. Prince is on a roll right now, and provides upside that you don’t normally see at this price. You can even pair him and Bazemore against the Suns in a high paced matchup to maximize upside.
Dark Horses:
Michael Beasley ($4,600): On paper, this is not a good matchup for Beastley. Let us not forget that he scorched the Spurs for 51 last week. Can he do that with Kawhi in there? Probably not. The silver lining here is that Leonard will sit either tonight or tomorrow. If he sits tonight, Beastley is worth a look. He followed up that performance against the Spurs with another solid one against the Pelicans. Maybe the Knicks are starting to see the light regarding Beastley.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,500): The Cavs are among the worst teams in the league in allowing fantasy points to small forwards, and Aminu only needs 22.5 to hit value. The bad news is that Aminu has missed that mark three times in the last six games. There is some risk here without major upside, but if you need to go cheap, you could do worse.
My pick: James(SF), Prince(F); James(SF), Prince(F), Beasley(UTIL)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Kevin Love ($8,700): I’m not wild about the price, but there is potential for Love to have a big night against Portland’s smaller interior. Love has been manning PF more with Thompson back which helps his bottom line even more here. Love missed value against the Kings and Jazz, but should reverse that trend tonight.
Blake Griffin ($8,400): It’s like he was never even out. Griffin has 88.75 DraftKings points over his two games since returning after a month off. No minutes restriction needed for this one! Blake is right back on track, and he abused the Grizzlies for 52.5 DraftKings points earlier this season. I’m actually for Griffin over Love tonight.
Honorable Mention:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600): Well, these two teams met five days ago, so we should have a pretty accurate measuring stick. Aldridge, despite the poor matchup on paper, outscored Porzingis by 5 points and cost much less. Now, Leonard sat on Thursday. If he is in there for around 30 minutes, that could adversely affect the production of Aldridge. I still wont play Porzingis though. Kawhi has little to do with the defense on him.
Zach Randolph ($6,100): Charlotte has yet to find anyone that can defend the four like Howard patrols the middle. That makes Randolph the King to own up front if you are going to use the high/low to attack the Hornets at their (fantasy) weakest.
Dark Horses:
John Collins ($4,900): Collins may come off the bench, but he is far more consistent than Ilyasova even if he lacks the big upside. We have seen Collins has some strong games off the bench, and he has at least 25 DraftKings points in 10 of his last 12 games. Collins has ample upside and a pretty high floor right now.
Marquese Chriss ($4,600): Here we go again with the impossible to predict fantasy fluctuation of the Suns frontcourt. Len has been terrible lately and Chriss has at least 6x value in four straight games. Chriss could be a great value so long as the Suns don’t change his work load. The thing that Chriss has going for him is that he definitely has a future with this team.
My pick: Collins(PF); Collins(PF), Chriss(C)
Center:
Best Bets:
Marc Gasol ($8,000): Gasol has been close to 5x value in both games against the Clippers this year. Jordan in not a strong defender, so this is a pretty favorable matchup for Gasol. He will essentially be the only interior threat with Griffin locking down Green and/or Martin.
Dwight Howard ($7,400): This looks like a pretty good matchup for Howard, but Cauley-Stein has is a pretty good defender, and has been even better lately. When you add to that Howard’s struggles against Jordan on New Year’s Eve, there is cause for concern that Howard wont come all that close to value.
Honorable Mention:
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,000): Portland wised up and left Nurkic in for his most minutes since November against the Bulls and he responded with 43.25 DraftKings points. There is a lot of potential here against Cleveland so long as Nurkic can stay on the court. Foul trouble had a lot to do with his decrease in minutes.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,500): Do you trust trends or past stats? That will determine how you feel about Cauley-Stein tonight. WCS has at least 30 DraftKings points in five straight games. However, Charlotte has allowed the least fantasy points to centers this season. Which trend will you follow?
Dark Horses:
Tyson Chandler ($4,400): Greg Monroe hasn’t seen court time in almost two weeks. That came on the heels of a series of strong fantasy games for Monroe. It seems as though the Suns have removed Monroe from the rotation, which while helping the youngsters, is also a huge boost for Chandler, who is still playing 30 minutes a game. Chandler could be a sneaky value play.
Mike Muscala ($3,000): Muscala has been out since November 3rd with an ankle injury that kept him as day to day the entire time. There are minutes available for him with Dedmon out, so Muscala could see decent minutes for the minimum price. There is no word on limitations since he doesn’t start anyway. However, he only needs 15 DraftKings points for value. If Muscala plays 20 minutes, he is a lock for value at the minimum price.
My pick: Gasol(C), N/A
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! For you college football fans, we have all of the games picked against the spread along with the Bowl Mania picks!