So DeMar DeRozan is a 3-point shooter now?
DeMar DeRozan’s shot selection has always made him an easy target, but it reached a tipping point last season when he doubled down as a mid-range scorer. While the rest of the league focused on shooting more 3-pointers, DeRozan’s 3-point attempt rate cratered to a level we hadn’t seen since he was a sophomore in the NBA. Over half of his shot attempts were instead made up of the long 2-pointers just about everyone else in the league was moving away from. It hurt his efficiency as a volume scorer and became a factor in the postseason once again when the Raptors struggled to create consistent offense against the Bucks and Cavaliers.
This season has been a slightly different story. With 42 made 3-pointers in 36 games, DeRozan has already converted more 3s than he did all of last season (33 3-pointers in 74 games). He’s knocked down those opportunities at a respectable rate as well. Despite a slow start in October and November, DeRozan has made 37.2 percent of his 3-pointers on 3.1 attempts per game this season. That puts him on a similar page as Frank Kaminsky, John Wall and Wilson Chandler in terms of makes, and he’s on pace to shatter his career-high in 3-point attempts in a single season.
The combination has turned DeRozan into a less predictable player. 3-pointers now represent 18.4 percent of his shot attempts and his true shooting percentage stands at 58.8 percent, both of which are career-highs. Coincidentally, the Raptors have been significantly better offensively with DeRozan in the lineup this season — 112.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the court compared to 103.7 points per 100 possession with him on the bench — something that hasn’t always been the case. It obviously remains to be seen if DeRozan will continue to take and make 3s at this rate, but there’s no doubt it’s a step in the right direction for him and the Raptors.
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Some of his success from the perimeter probably isn’t a fluke. Most of DeRozan’s made 3s this season have come without a dribble, which is a shot he has made at a decent rate throughout his career. According to NBA.com, DeRozan combined to make 34.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s between 2013 and 2017. He made under 33.0 percent of those opportunities in three of those four seasons, but he peaked at 42.9 percent in 2015-16. The fact that his success on those shots this season falls somewhere in the middle might be a better indicator of his potential as a 3-point shooter, especially if he’s launching them with greater confidence.
It’s not as though all of DeRozan’s 3-pointers are heaves at the end of the shot clock either. Although he sports one of the higher usage ratings in the NBA, DeRozan is fortunate to play alongside a number of playmakers in the backcourt in Kyle Lowry, Fed VanVleet and Delon Wright who can set him up for shots within the flow of the offense. His reluctance to shoot 3-pointers has hurt them at times in the past — a drive and kick from Lowry, for example, doesn’t pack the same punch if DeRozan turns down an uncontested 3-pointer for a mid-range pull-up over two defenders — but he’s been far more willing to let them fly this season to encouraging results.
It’s important DeRozan takes those shots because they’re mostly open attempts. (All but seven of his makes from the perimeter this season have come against “open” or “wide open” coverage). Knowing he prefers to pull-up from mid-range, defenders have been closing out on DeRozan short for years to give themselves a better chance of containing his drive. It’s what Tony Snell does on this possession — one of the tactics he used in the playoffs to contain DeRozan — only DeRozan is now showing signs of being more comfortable taking the shot he’s being given:
Beyond creating more spacing for his teammates by establishing himself as a perimeter threat, replacing some of those mid-range pull-ups for 3-pointers helps the Raptors run a more efficient offense. They still generate a higher percentage of their points from the 3-point line when DeRozan is on the bench, but they’ve gone from scoring 22.3 percent of their points from the perimeter when DeRozan is on the court to 29.4 percent this season. That’s the difference between the Raptors ranking last in the league and rubbing shoulders with the Grizzlies and 76ers in the middle of the standings in how reliant they are on 3s to generate scoring.
If this part of DeRozan’s game is sustainable to some degree, the next logical step for him would be to become more comfortable shooting 3-pointers off the dribble. Whereas he has flashed potential as a catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter in the past, DeRozan has never been one to pull-up from the 3-point line. According to NBA.com, he made 25 of his 142 3-point pull-up attempts between 2013 and 2017. For context, 65 players made more than 25 pull-up 3-pointers last season alone.
While he hasn’t done it with the greatest efficiency, DeRozan has been slighter better in that regard this season with 13 made pull-up 3-pointers on 43 attempts. It only works out to be 1.2 3-point pull-up attempts per game, so him experimenting with it doesn’t hurt Toronto’s offense. Plus, the potential upside makes it worthwhile. If DeRozan ever gets to a point where he can consistently knock down pull-up 3-pointers, he’ll be almost unguardable. He proved it against the Bucks on Jan. 1, when he made three pull-up 3-pointers en route to a franchise-record 52 points.
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DeRozan can still be the 3-point shooter the Raptors need him to be even without improving off the dribble. All they need from him for now is to take more of the spot-up 3-pointers he turned down in the past. And taking more 3-pointers doesn’t mean DeRozan has to completely abandon his mid-range game. He’s still leading the league in mid-range scoring, only he’s now mixing it up enough to give him and the Raptors a dimension they’ve been sorely missing in the postseason.
Assuming, of course, that this is more than a “don’t say I can’t shoot 3s no more” stretch. There is reason for skepticism based on the player he has been to this stage in his career, but there’s also reason for optimism based on how he’s going about it and what we know about his work ethic.