DraftKings NBA picks January 4: Small slate, big stars
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks January 4: Small slate, big stars
After the huge slate last night, we are down to just two games tonight. Only the Warriors, Rockets, Clippers, and Thunder bring it to the court tonight, and three of the four are on back to backs. Don’t worry. There is still plenty of star power and value on display here.
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The money line was a modest 252 DraftKings points last night, which is rare for a 12 game night. Chasing Spurs value and a Thunder blowout did me in.
The winning lineup was up a ways to 354.25. He built around Giannis and Curry and got nice value from Monroe (who hadn’t played in a week), Dinwiddie, Lyles, and a 0.4% owned Delon Wright.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,300): Westbrook is performing at an impossibly high level right now. The chances of it happening against the Clippers is minimal though. The Clips held him to 42.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Of course, Westbrook is a little bit different than he was then, but this is still a lofty goal against the Clippers team that is third in the league defending the point. It is acceptable to fade Westbrook, believe it or not.
Chris Paul ($9,800): Paul had a good night last night, but it was still very disappointing for those of us that expected him to become a mini James Harden. That isn’t going to happen. For that reason alone, I think Paul is overpriced, though that doesn’t really matter on a slate this small. If you’re talking bang for the buck, Paul is more likely to get it than Westbrook.
Honorable Mention:
Stephen Curry ($8,400): Curry has topped 50 DraftKings points in both games back, but don’t be surprised if the Warriors try to dial him back a little here. It may or may not come to fruition. Everyone knows that this could be a preview of the Western Conference Finals. The players know it as well. I expect a strong showing from Curry no matter how long he is out there.
Lou Williams ($7,200): Williams torched the Thunder for 49.75 DraftKings points in 39 minutes in the first meeting. LouWill may not see that many minutes with Rivers back, but he will still see over 30, and is still a threat to make a shot anywhere inside half court. Williams could be in for another strong night, though it may not be enough to boost your entry to the promised land.
Dark Horses:
Milos Teodosic ($5,100): Teodosic will start, but this is a tough matchup for him. He played 34 minutes against Memphis, so playing time is no longer an issue. Still, Teodosic is such a good passer that he may hit value anyway, even in a tough matchup.
Raymond Felton ($3,800): Felton has yet to start with Roberson out, but he has three straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. The minutes are there so long as Roberson is out, making Felton a great place to go cheap tonight.
My pick: Curry(PG), Williams(G); Paul(PG), Curry(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Eric Gordon ($6,500): Gordon picked up 31.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Warriors despite it being a tough matchup on paper. Gordon has a solid all around night with Harden sidelined, and will continue to put up solid stat lines for this price.
Klay Thompson ($6,100): Thompson had a strong game against Houston in the first meeting with 37.5 DraftKings points in that one. He also had Eric Gordon guarding him in that game, so Thompson has a really good shot at a repeat performance. That would put him a little over 6x value if Thompson can pull it off.
Honorable Mention:
Gerald Green ($4,000): Green put up 27 points and six rebounds last night with Harden out. His price is going to skyrocket after this game, so this is your last chance to play him for super cheap!
Dark Horse:
Terrance Ferguson ($3,000): Ferguson was huge last night in his first start, and will get plenty of run again tonight with both Alex Abrines and Andre Roberson still out. Felton will see minutes as well, but Ferguson was so impressive that he will keep Felton on the bench. Ferguson is the place to go for value tonight, but on a two game slate, he may be 100% owned.
My pick: Green(SG), Ferguson(F); Gordon(SG), Green(UTIL), Ferguson(SF)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($8,700): Ariza held Durant to only 41.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but this price looks a little low for Durant. He is plenty capable of dropping 50 even with the team fully healthy. He did last night. Durant looks like a very good top line play.
Paul George ($7,000): With Westbrook struggling in the first meeting with the Clippers, George had a monster night, putting up 70.25 DraftKings points. With the way Westbrook is playing right now, I’m going to go ahead and say that wont happen again. However, George can still hit 6x value with relative ease here.
Honorable Mention:
Trevor Ariza ($5,300): Ariza is nothing special for DFS purposes. That is why you rarely find him in here. He has built a very good NBA career on capable offense and smothering defense. That doesn’t do much for us DFS players. Usually, that is. On such a shallow night as this, Ariza’s consistency can be a very good thing.
Dark Horse:
Josh Huestis ($3,000): There is another Thunder value play hanging around. However, I would think that after last night Ferguson is keep the job with Roberson out. However, the Thunder have no backups. That’s where Huestis comes in. He hit value last night because of the blowout win. Could he see decent minutes tonight too?
My pick: Durant(SF), George(UTIL); N/A
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Blake Griffin ($8,200): The Thunder are solid against power forwards, and Griffin struggled in the first meeting with Oklahoma City. Griffin has put up at least 40 DraftKings points in all three games since his return. He will likely be the best power forward tonight, but he wont give you 5x value. There are others that might.
Honorable Mention:
Draymond Green ($6,600): Green put up 43.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Houston despite scoring only nine points. He missed a triple double by that one point. Green does so many other things on the court well that he has a pretty good floor and solid upside. Green isn’t going to get you 60 DraftKings points. He wont get you 20 either.
Jordan Bell ($5,000): The Warriors are almost at full strength, and Bell is still getting good run. He is safe to play in any formats, including DFS so long as his price stays in this manageable range. Bell is the most offensively gifted player in the frontcourt, so he will continue to get plenty of use.
Dark Horses:
Ryan Anderson ($4,300): Anderson put up 30 DraftKings points in his first game against Golden State. Normally, his inconsistency is a deal breaker for me. He will lose you money far more often than he wins you money. However, on a slate this small with a good matchup, Anderson has the upside we covet for GPP formats.
My pick: Green(PF), Bell(C); Green(PF), Bell(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
Clint Capela ($6,800): The Warriors bothered Capela in the first meeting with. In fact, they ended up taking him completely out of the game. He had only 20 DraftKings points in 18 minutes. There is a chance that the Rockets could go smaller with Tarik Black at center instead. Be aware that that may be a necessity against the Warriors today. Statistically, this is a solid matchup, however, it doesn’t seem that it actually will be for Capela.
DeAndre Jordan ($6,700): Jordan had his issues against the Thunder in the first meeting, and it was mostly with fouls. This is a pretty solid matchup for Jordan. I would trust him to be more likely to rebound tonight than Capela. There is a chance that they both flop again too.
Honorable Mention:
Steven Adams ($5,800): Adams missed the first meeting, but he will have a pretty good chance at getting value against Jordan. Jordan is not known for his defense, at least in a good way. Adams will never be a focal point of this offense, but he is capable when they get him the ball.
Dark Horse:
Tarik Black ($3,500): Black is a sizeable risk since we don’t know exactly how this will play out. I am guessing that Black will see about as many minutes as Capela will, but I can’t guarantee that. Black will be a far better value if this game trends the way that it should. It just comes down to how brave you are.
My pick: N/A; Jordan(C)
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