Marvin Bagley III might not be the can’t-miss prospect his stats make him out to be
No prospect is as divisive in this year’s NBA Draft as Marvin Bagley.
One one side, many think the Duke freshman is in the conversation for the top overall pick. The reasons why are fairly obvious. At just 18 years old, Bagley is putting up dominant numbers for one of the best teams in college basketball — 21.9 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game on 65.3 percent true shooting. Bagley’s age and combination of mobility, ball-handling, and touch as a big man seem like they will give him the inside track to NBA stardom, and his production is too enormous to ignore, especially on a team with a National Player of the Year Candidate in Grayson Allen.
This camp definitely sees Bagley as a superstar-level prospect, a player who will be a matchup nightmare as he continues to develop based on these core athletic indicators. I mean, a player at his size that can lead a fast break as naturally as this has to be pretty special, right?
However, not everyone is sold. Another camp sees Bagley in a less glamorous light. While Bagley might be putting up numbers at Duke, he has some qualities of his game that cast doubt about his ability to translate to the NBA for some. He has that stellar athleticism package, but he also can be seen to lack some of the finer qualities that could help him harness those physical tools in a meaningful way. Instead of his size being an asset, it may actually create a problem for him within NBA lineups, as coaches may be able to scheme for him if he can’t back up his offensive skills with defensive play. This group instead sees Bagley as a more risky prospect, and has him in the back half of the top 10.
Read More: The Step Back’s 2018 NBA Draft Big Board — Version 2.0
Which group is right? Well, both, and that’s the problem with trying to evaluate him. On film you have clear warts and issues that he needs to address just to be able to stay on the floor at the NBA level. He is far from a can’t-miss prospect like Anthony Davis or Kevin Durant. However, how do you reconcile what you see on tape with what keeps showing up on the stat sheet? He’s producing in a way that few freshmen have before, on a great team, and is outproducing another potential top-10 pick in Wendell Carter in the frontcourt.
Part of the problem with Bagley’s production is that it doesn’t come with a high degree of difficulty. 55.2 percent of Bagley’s shots come at the rim, and he’s been assisted on 58.1 percent of those baskets, per hoop-math. A lot of his attempts are pretty simple, coming off plays set up by Duke’s primary initiators, and the threat that they present.
Now, he’s shooting 81.1 percent on those attempts, which is phenomenal, and a testament to his skill as a finisher. It does say something about him that he is consistently able to put himself in position to get those open looks, and that he nearly always finishes those close-range shots, even when there is pressure on him. It’s a valuable skill in the NBA, and sets at the very least a competent baseline for him to be able to achieve.
However, you’d like to see a little more diversity from him on offense if you’re projecting him to be this superstar number one option. The results here are pretty hit-and-miss. On one hand, Bagley shows some potential excellence from the perimeter game, able to beat smaller forwards off the dribble with his long strides and even using screens from guys like Javin DeLaurier and Grayson Allen to generate switches, a highly useful NBA play. But his finshing away from the basket lacks polish, and that comes from some strength concerns at this point.
Bagley lacks the upper body strength to not be bothered by contact, and his frame leads some to question if he’ll ever be able to put on enough muscle to make that leap. Players with the skill set that Bagley seems destined to mimic (Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap) are effective because they can beat you both with their quickness and physicality. Bagley doesn’t have a very wide upper frame and he’s slight for his size, unlike those two, which could limit that upside.
Another area where Bagley has been inconsistent is passing, where he shows inconsistent feel and touch on his passes. He can make simple reads, like the pass to Allen in transition above, and he’s smart about when to dump the ball off on off-the-dribble plays, electing to move the ball rather than trying to push into the lane when he doesn’t have a clear path. But he can also force passes from the perimeter, and he doesn’t seem to have great feel outside of simple playmaking.
Bagley’s shooting is also an area of contention. You can craft whatever narrative you want out of it. If you want to spin it positively, he shoots 35.7 percent from 3 on the year, and his form is somewhat promising. He also has comfort shooting off the catch, and that can be developed at the next level. Meanwhile, you can also take the negative approach, and look at the fact that he’s shooting just 60.7 percent at the free throw line on 89 attempts, which may hold more weight than his 28 3-point attempts. He also has a propensity for early-shot clock 3s that miss badly, and there’s a Josh Smith comparison to be made here if you want to go down that path.
Defensively, you can make the same types of arguments in either direction. If you want to argue he doesn’t have a high ceiling on this end, you can point to his lack of feel and rim protection, which will limit his ability to play the five on defense if they aren’t addressed. Bagley rarely puts himself in position to contest shots, and he gets lost off ball at times, even on the wing in Duke’s 2-3 zone. He can be confused by off-ball actions to spring shooters, and it’s difficult to determine if his lapses are just part of adjusting to the college game or more indicative of a long-term issue he’ll have to address.
The other side of the argument is that Bagley only needs to develop into a neutral defender if his offensive game progresses, and he has the tools to do that. Bagley’s length and mobility allow him to be a passable perimeter defender in college, and he should be able to switch comfortably within a defensive scheme. The rim protection aspect is worrying, but part of that could be a product of playing on this Duke team, where Carter anchors the zone and takes a lot of the tougher assignments because of his high intellect. Duke also doesn’t appear keen about rotating within their defensive system, so Bagley missing rotations and not stepping up to contest shots near him could be a product of how he’s being coached.
Bagley is a fascinating case to evaluate. His athletic profile and the skills he has established to this point are excellent, and the probability that he’ll continue to blossom in his perimeter game and on defense is high. But lurking on the back burner are some really problematic questions to answer — most notably the issue of how he truly harnesses his skill set as an offensive five if he can’t play the five on defense.
Next: The Step Back’s 2018 NBA Draft Big Board: Version 2.0
There’s still a lot of time for Bagley to improve. He has already shown some gradual improvements in his shooting and feel as the season has gone on, and his rookie contract might end before he’s even close to entering his prime as a player. But some of his weaknesses are pretty significant, and that deserves attention as well. That creates an issue when you’re looking at projecting him in the NBA Draft. He might end up being the best player in the draft, or he could easily struggle once he meets athletes that are his equal. That creates a problem for NBA teams, who neither want to miss on a generational talent nor get saddled with a player that busts out of the league. At this point, it looks like Bagley might be either.