NFL Wild Card 2018: Picks, predictions and more

ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 07: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) during an NFL football game between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons on December 7, 2017 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Atlanta Falcons won the game 20-17. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

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The NFL playoffs are here, and all the home teams are favored by at least a touchdown. Matt Verderame believes one will lose.

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

The playoffs get rolling at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs (10-6) haven’t won a posteason game in their last five tries. In fact, the last Kansas City quarterback to win at home in the playoffs? Joe Montana back in Jan. 1994.

Still, that streak should end right here. Marcus Mariota has more turnovers than touchdowns this season, and while Derrick Henry is a bruising back, he’s averaging 2.25 yards per carry over the past four games, worst of any qualifying runner in the NFL over that stretch.

The Chiefs should be able to move the ball with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill against Tennessee’s 25th-ranked pass defense. Factor in a turnover or two from the Titans (9-7) , and Kansas City moves on to the Divisional round for the third consecutive year.

Pick: Kansas City 27, Tennessee 16

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)

This should be the best game of the weekend. The Rams (11-5) won the NFC West thanks to the brilliance of 31-year-old head coach Sean McVay and the MVP-caliber season of running back Todd Gurley.

The Falcons (10-6) are the only NFC team to get back to the playoffs, and they bring a dangerous roster. Atlanta has a dynamic rushing attack with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the backfield, complimenting Julio Jones and his 1,400-yard season.

Looking at the stats, both teams are about equal in defensive pressure and explosive plays. Los Angeles has home field, but Atlanta has experience. The difference could very well be in the kicking game, and Matt Bryant has been great for almost two decades. Sam Ficken? He’s an unproven rookie. Give me Bryant, perhaps winning this by the slimmest of margins.

Pick: Atlanta 28, Los Angeles 27