This Week in Stats: Have Swansea made the right managerial choice?

The previous roundup focused on the battle for a top four finish. As the second half of 2017-18 is underway, how are the teams at the bottom faring?

Swansea went into the final weekend of 2017 five points adrift of safety at the bottom of the Premier League. But they had at least hired a new manager to replace Paul Clement, who had been recently fired.

Less than one week earlier, Carlos Carvalhal had been fired by Sheffield Wednesday, a club he left in the lower half of the Championship. Yet here he was, appointed by Swansea. Were the Swans already preparing for life in the second flight next season?

Whether they were or not, his tenure began with a 2-1 win at Watford. Swansea were perhaps a touch fortunate in as much as they scored twice in the final five minutes. Their equalizer came less than a minute after Andre Gray missed a clear-cut chance to seal the result for Watford too.

The shot stats were tied at nine apiece, and they were also near enough worth the same in expected goal terms. There were definite signs of improvement though.

Swansea had two clear-cut chances at Vicarage Road, when they’d had three in total on the road prior to that. They also had four shots on target, which they hadn’t managed under Clement away from the Liberty Stadium.

More than anything, Swansea looked more determined than they have done recently. The new manager did his part by introducing substitutes who bagged a goal (Luciano Narsingh) and an assist (Oliver McBurnie).

A defeat to Spurs in their next match wasn’t a surprise, but if Swansea can rack up more performances like their win at Watford, then all is not lost yet.

West Brom’s winless run continued

Much like Swansea, West Brom changed their manager recently. The Baggies are still waiting to see a bounce from the appointment of Alan Pardew, though.

Pardew is renowned for starting well before things fall apart. Yet his side have won none of his eight matches. Since the former Palace manager was appointed, no team has won fewer points.

On the face of it, a 1-1 draw with Arsenal was a creditable result, even if the penalty West Brom were awarded was charitable at best. Arsenal fans have long thought referee Mike Dean has it in for them; perhaps they’re correct?

A draw was a fair result; the shot tallies were tied and (penalty aside) they were of similar value. A relegation-threatened team’s fate is rarely decided against the big teams, though. West Brom’s other recent match was against fellow strugglers West Ham.

Luck was on the Baggies’ side when James McClean’s deflected shot gave them the lead, but West Ham came from behind for the first time this season thanks to two Andy Carroll goals. It was also the first time West Brom lost in 2017-18 after scoring first. Not a good time for that to happen.

Pardew’s team are not terrible. Their issue is they’ve played many tight games and the margins aren’t going for them. In his eight matches, the expected goals difference has only been more than one goal once.

Expected and actual goals rarely match up, but West Brom are underperforming at both ends of the pitch. Aside from trips to Manchester City and Chelsea, their fixture list is relatively kind for the next three months. They will need to sharpen up in both penalty boxes if they are to stay up.

Next: New Years resolutions for every PL team

Are Stoke about to make a change?

Mark Hughes has had a tricky job at Stoke. Guiding a club to three successive top half finishes for the first time ever is no mean feat. Yet it has always been hard to see Stoke pushing on beyond that. They dropped to 13th last season, and find themselves in the relegation zone now.

Then again, they have been England’s sixth highest net spenders over the past 15 years. It’s no wonder Potters fans were unhappy at seeing Stoke barely register a point per game in 2017.

Things appeared to reach the point of no return over the new year weekend. With matches away at Chelsea then home to Newcastle within 48 hours, it was understandable Hughes would save his best players for the latter fixture.

A 5-0 spanking at Stamford Bridge duly followed. As the shot count was 21-1, it could’ve been worse. Stoke have the worst goal difference in the division, so it was a costly defeat. Of course, Hughes was banking that his team would then beat Newcastle.

Uh-oh. Rafa Benitez has spent his career bloodying the noses of far greater clubs than Stoke. Newcastle were happy for the Potters to have the ball, and they registered their highest home possession figure (59 percent) for over a year.

The Magpies were far sharper in attack, and took the lead with their third clear-cut chance of the match. At that point the shot count was 12-4 in their favor, with one of Stoke’s attempts being from their own half. The home side understandably rallied, but the Magpies defended well. Stoke mustered two clear-cut chances of their own, but Mame Biram Diouf missed them both.

The Stoke board are reluctant to sack Hughes. If decisions, performances and results continue in this vein, they will be left with no choice.