What happened to Bruce Brown’s offensive game?

Bruce Brown was a trendy player for scouts during the 2017 NBA Draft process. A quality athlete that spent time at either guard spot, the then-freshman for Miami showed flashes of excellent court vision and outside shooting touch, leading some to believe he may have untapped potential as a secondary ball-handler. Combine that with his defense, which looked promising, and he was a very exciting player to bolster a pretty questionable-looking wing class in 2017. When he returned to school instead of entering the draft, it was a bit of a surprise to some, and he had high expectations coming into this year, slotting 14th on our inaugural Step Back Big Board for the 2018 NBA Draft.

On version 2.0, however, he dropped to 21st, a slide that indicates just how much of a struggle he’s had over the first two months of the college basketball season. Brown has taken on a bigger role with the Hurricanes, being asked to initiate more of their offense in the absence of the departed Davon Reed. That’s resulted in an increase in assists, as he’s gone from averaging 4.0 to 5.3 assists per 40 minutes. But it’s come at the cost of his scoring, which has fallen off a cliff. After posting a true shooting percentage of 55.9 percent in 2016-17, he’s at a subpar 49.6 percent this year, and he’s fallen from averaging 14.9 points per 40 minutes to just 13.3 this year. That’s in part because of his outside shooting, which has cratered to just 26.3 percent from outside.

This has created a weird dynamic for Brown. On one hand, he’s able to put his passing instincts and rebounding more on display, creating some solid performances like his 10-11-10 triple-double to start the season against Gardner-Webb.  But he’s also had duds where his shooting has dominated everything, like his 1-of-10 shooting night against Navy. That’s contributed to the inconsistent play of Miami’s offense, which disappeared completely in last night’s loss to Georgia Tech, in part because of Brown’s 4-of-11 shooting night.

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What happened? Has there been anything to cause his poor shooting? Is it just a slump, or is this closer to what we can expect from him? Those are the questions draft scouts are left wondering, given the fall-off has been so sudden and so complete. The numbers are also backed up by the tape, where he doesn’t look like quite the same player in the halfcourt, and that’s worrying for his long-term prospects.

Part of the reason for Brown’s dip in efficiency has to do with his shot distribution, which has changed enough to explain some of why the aesthetics of his game aren’t matching up. Here’s the distribution of Brown’s shots in 2016-17 compared to 2017-18, per hoop-math (These numbers don’t incorporate the Georgia Tech game):

In 2016-17, Brown was taking 8.5 percent more shots directly at the rim, 8.2 percent less two-point jumpers, and 18.8 percent more of his 3s were assisted, an estimate of how many catch-and-shoot opportunities he was getting. That aligns with his change in offensive role — he became less of an off-ball scorer and more ball-dominant, resulting in more pull-up shots, less direct chances at the rim, and less open stand-still 3s. That’s a point towards his dip in efficiency, and well it doesn’t bode well for his chances in the NBA as a secondary initiator in an offense, it does mean he may be able to retain that efficiency in a lesser role, especially given that his efficiency at the rim and on pull-ups has actually improved this year.

This is where film sheds more light on the subject. A major plus to Brown’s offensive skill set last year was his fluidity on drives, as he displayed some acrobatic moves that are uncharacteristic for a freshman playing in a secondary role. He showed fantastic body control, with an array of floaters, jukes, and touch shots that allowed him to convert at the rim in traffic at a high level.

For whatever reason, that fluidity isn’t there this year. Brown still tries some of those same tools to convert against opponents in the paint, but things look more mechanical, and his game isn’t as effective.

This has branched over into other aspects of his game as well. Brown seems tentative on the court at times, and will go for stretches where he seems to take plays off athletically or shy away from going vertical. This was apparent in last night’s Georgia Tech game, where Brown neglected to attempt to finish a Lonnie Walker lob on the break, and had these two plays where he gave up on a Josh Okogie dunk and a contested rebound:

The reason for this is unknown — Brown hasn’t missed any time with an injury that we know of, and he will flip back a few possessions later with an incredibly athletic transition dunk or defensive play. But it’s a concerning bad habit that appears to be festering that is preventing him from being more efficient with the ball in his hands.

Brown’s 3-point shot is also a glaring problem, that could be more representative of his actual ability than last year’s 34.7 percent clip. Brown’s jumper has also gotten more mechanical, and he doesn’t release consistently, sometimes releasing at the high-point, and sometimes firing on the way up. He’s particularly bad about this on pull-ups, where it appears that he rushes his shots to try to beat the defender.

His free throw percentage also has regressed from 74.4 percent to 55.3 percent. While sample size could be a contributor there (38 attempts this year), his release point, which is cocked directly above his head and creates a slight line drive, is problematic as well. That both of these things need to stabilize is problematic.

Next: The Step Back’s 2018 NBA Draft Big Board Version 2.0

Brown is still a viable NBA prospect thanks to the combination of his athleticism and his defensive profile. He’s a capable team defender that can check ones through 3s, and brings value because his anticipation allows him to create transition opportunities, where he’s still a very talented player with and without the ball. Even if his creation ability isn’t real, he could potentially find a role as a slasher and defensive cog, especially if his 3-point shot returns. But these changes to his game have really limited his effectiveness this year, and cast doubt on his ability to reach the ceiling that some identified last season. There’s still plenty of time for Brown to recover and find himself on offense, but right now, it looks like that secondary creator potential that would give him near-lottery value is gone.