DraftKings NBA picks January 5: Will DeRozan scorch the Bucks again?

OAKLAND, CA – JUNE 12: Draymond Green #23 and Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors react late in the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the 2017 NBA Finals at ORACLE Arena on June 12, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks January 5: Will DeRozan scorch the Bucks again?

We are back up to ten games for our Friday DraftKings tournaments. A few stars are missing because of the volume that we had on a short slate last night, but the middle tier is loaded! There is also some value hiding here. Not like Ferguson, but enough to play several middle tier players.

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Kemba Walker ($8,300): It’s easy to fade the top at the position tonight. Memphis is the best team in the league defending the point, and Wall didn’t even hit 4x value against them the first time. Simmons has a tougher matchup, and Damian Lillard may or may not be back, but I would bet that he is limited if he does play. That leaves Walker against the Lakers. The Lakers have been better guarding the point with Ball out, but not to the point where I would consider fading players against them.

Kyrie Irving ($8,200): Irving struggled to knock anything down against Cleveland on Wednesday. Now with the pressure off, he should get back to his high scoring ways against the Timberwolves. They are better against the point than they were early on, but the Timberwolves are still in the bottom third of the league in point guard defense. Irving should see plenty of open looks tonight.

Tyreke Evans ($8,000): Evans is consistent and he is rolling right now. He has only been under 40 DraftKings points once in the last six games, and twice in the last nine. Evans provides a mismatch against the point for most teams. His career season should roll on pretty nicely against Wall tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Lowry ($7,300): Lowry racked up 47 DraftKings points on the Bucks earlier this season, but it could be different with Bledsoe in town. Still, this is a very reasonable price for Lowry, who has hit 5x value at this price in four of the last six games. I’m guessing we wont see 47 again, but 37 would still be 5x value, and Lowry should at least get that many.

Kris Dunn ($7,100): Dunn was slowed down by Toronto on Wednesday, but he can be forgiven for that. It’s not an easy matchup. Dallas should be a little easier on Dunn. He has only been under 5x value twice in the last 13 games, even when measured by this price.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,300): Smith has three straight games over 5x value, so it looks like he is picking up where he left off before the injury. Now Smith gets to take on what is statistically the worst defense in the league against point guards. Smith could be a great bargain at this price.

Dark Horses:

Ish Smith ($5,800): Smith had a bit of a tough time against Miami, but that is to be expected. He will get to rebound against a Philadelphia team that is weak on the perimeter. Smith is never going to put up huge numbers, but he has proven that he can hit the high 30’s with regularity if the minutes are there. They will be for as long as Reggie Jackson is out. Smith is a solid value play tonight.

Terry Rozier ($4,800): His status as a back makes Rozier a bit of a risk, but he has at least 6x value in five straight games. I don’t see anyone on the Timberwolves’ bench that can stop him, especially with Jones being forced into the starting five. Rozier lacks upside, but isn’t 6x value enough upside?

Isaiah Canaan ($3,900): Canaan’s numbers have taken a hit with Ulis starting, but Canaan is still putting up the better numbers of the two. This is not an ideal matchup with the Spurs, but it isn’t as bad as you may think either. There is value to be had with Canaan, but there is no upside to go with it. If he gives you 25, consider yourself lucky.

My pick: D. Smith(PG); Dunn(PG), I. Smith(G), Rozier(UTIL)

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 25: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on during the game against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on December 25, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,900): Has anyone been as hot as DeRozan lately? First he assaults Milwaukee for a franchise record 52 points and 75.75 DraftKings points, then he continues the onslaught with 56.25 against the Bulls. Guess what? DeRozan gets the Bucks again tonight! I would be foolish to expect another 70, but 50 is all but a given tonight.

Bradley Beal ($7,900): We have seen Beal have his biggest games when Wall has a bad matchup. That certainly goes for tonight. Wall has to deal with Tyreke Evans. Beal will have to deal with some combination of Harrison and Brooks. This could be another big night for Beal.

C.J. McCollum ($7,700): The Hawks are the worst team in the league against shooting guards, but last Saturday McCollum hit just 8 of 21 shots against them. However, statistically this is still a strong play. I highly doubt McCollum struggles like that again. the prospect of a Lillard return may hurt the bottom line a little, but it could also help. McCollum seems to do worse when he is pressing, which he certainly does with Lillard out.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($7,300): Only two teams have held Middleton under 35 DraftKings points over the last 12 games. Toronto is one of them. The smart pivot seems to be to Bledsoe, who put up 50.25 DraftKings points on the Raptors while playing some time off the ball back on Monday. I doubt he drops 50 again, but 6x value is a possibility.

Josh Richardson ($6,400): Waiters is still nursing a sore ankle, so that means all systems are a go on Richardson again. Richardson has at least 5x value even at this price in six of the last nine games, and has only been under 30 once in that span. This is a remarkably consistent run for Richardson. Which is great news for us DFS players.

Jeremy Lamb ($5,600): Lamb played well enough with Batum out that he has taken over a bit larger of a role off the bench. Lamb has 89.5 DraftKings points over the last three games and another good matchup with the Lakers coming up tonight. He should be a great value at this price, but his upside is capped since he doesn’t start.

Dark Horses:

Courtney Lee ($5,000): Lee has over 5x value in all but two of the last nine games. He put up 34.75 in the first meeting with the Heat. Lee never met a shot that he didn’t like, and the Heat struggle to defend the outside. Lee should see plenty of good looks tonight.

Wesley Matthews ($4,700): Matthews is mostly a scorer, but there is nothing wrong with a pure shooter that is this cheap. We saw DeRozan have his way with the Bulls on Wednesday. This is not a strong defense. Matthews has four straight games with at least 5x value. I’m expecting that streak to continue tonight.

Evan Turner ($4,400): Turner has three straight games with more than 20 DraftKings points, including topping 30 in two of those. He will always get minutes because of his defense, but if Turner can keep his offensive production up in this range, it gives us a lower cost option with decent upside.

My pick: Lee(SG), Turner(G); DeRozan(SG)

NEW ORLEANS, LA – DECEMBER 13: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks the ball over DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center on December 13, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana.(Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700): Giannis is the highest priced player out there tonight, but does that mean he is the best? He finally hit 5x value for the first time since December 19th on Wednesday, but he isn’t a favorite to stay there. Giannis did have 48.25 DraftKings points in the first game with Toronto, but we would be disappointed with that total for the price. His spot here is more relative to the steep drop at the position unless you play DeRozan here, and option that is looking better and better as this progresses.

Kawhi Leonard ($7,600): This is the spot we have all been waiting for. Leonard put up 49 DraftKIngs points in 31 minutes against the Knicks on Tuesday. He wont be playing 40 minutes anytime soon – hell, he barely did when completely healthy – but Leonard’s minutes above 30 against a poor defensive team for this price? Don’t be shocked if he outscores Giannis tonight.

Kyle Kuzma ($7,200): Kuzma has yet to see the minutes that he did before the quad soreness. The Lakers may be taking it easy with him. Kuzma put up 36 DraftKings points on Charlotte in the first meeting, but the best news of this is that he did it in only 31 minutes. Kuzma could still see that many minutes tonight against the second worst team in the league defending small forwards.

Honorable Mention:

Brandon Ingram ($6,600): The Hornets are equal opportunity bad at shooting guard and small forward both, so it really doesn’t matter where Ingram plays. Ingram only had 27 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but if he can stay out of foul trouble, Ingram may be more of a factor.

Taurean Prince ($5,700): Prince put up 34 DraftKings points on Portland on Saturday. He also has at least 5x value in each of the last four games. Another Bazemore cold spell has opened things up for Prince, and he seems to be taking advantage of that. Prince looks like a nice value play tonight.

Robert Covington ($5,600): Covington has 81.25 DraftKings points in two meetings with Detroit so far this year. As with most small forwards, the Pistons can’t guard them, particularly on the outside. Covington has proven time and again that he is an elite bargain play with the matchup is right. Tonight is one of those nights.

Dark Horses:

Michael Beastley ($5,300): Now with Beasley’s minutes up, he gets to take a shot at the coach that he just took a verbal shot at. The Knicks have been running Beasley out there enough for him to make an impact lately, and you can bet he wants to do that against a Miami team that he feels didn’t try to help him succeed. We could see another Beastly outing tonight!

Kyle Anderson ($4,900): I like Anderson a lot less with the crowded PG spot and Kawhi back. However, with Danny Green and Rudy Gay both out, Anderson still figures to see good run of the bench against a team that loves to run. There is some upside here.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,700): Aminu hit 5x value exactly against the Hawks on Saturday. I like him more as a cash game option, especially with how Turner is playing, but Aminu works if you are just trying to minimize risk in part of your lineup.

My pick: Leonard(SF), Covington(F); Leonard(SF), Beastley(F)

CHICAGO, IL – DECEMBER 29: Nikola Mirotic #44 of the Chicago Bulls moves against Lance Stephenson #1 of the Indiana Pacers at the United Center on December 29, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Pacers 119-107.(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,200): This is another situation where I don’t see a particularly great night for Aldridge, but the position is so shallow at the top that he deserves mentioning. LMA has proven that he can coexist with Kawhi, at least at the 30 minute threshold. Aldridge has been solid against the Suns all season, but not at the level you would expect against the worst power forward defense in the league.

Nikola Mirotic ($6,800): Mirotic continues to be better than the incumbent starter. While Markkanen doesn’t appear in any danger of losing the job anytime soon, Mirotic is easily the better play for as long as he keeps shooting like he is. There is plenty of potential here even though Mirotic doesn’t start.

Honorable Mention:

Lauri Markkanen ($6,200): Okay, so Mirotic isn’t that far ahead of Markkanen. They are similar players, but Markkanen is a better rebounder and slightly better defender. What it amounts to is 48 minutes of no mercy from the power forward spot for the Bulls. Both of them are worth playing in most every game.

Kelly Olynyk ($6,100): Both Johnson and Whiteside were back, and Olynyk still played 36 minutes. His great play with Miami’s frontcourt decimated has earned Olynyk more run now that everyone is back. It limits his value some, and Olynyk may still lose a few more minutes once James Johnson is all the way back to full speed, but Olynyk is going to be a solid value off the bench going forward.

Derrick Favors ($6,000): Favors has averaged 35.8 DraftKings points per game against Denver in three games this year. It isn’t a fluke, and Gobert and Paul Millsap are still out. Look for another 6x value from Favors tonight.

Dark Horses:

Trey Lyles ($5,400): Lyles put up 28.5 DraftKings points in the game that he started against Utah. He has been everything Denver could ask for in a replacement for Millsap. Lyles is a strong bargain play against pretty much anyone for the duration of Millsap’s absence.

John Collins ($5,100): I like the starter Ilyasova too, but Collins is the more consistent of the two. The Hawks aren’t going to play him over 25 minutes for now, so any upside he has is seriously capped. It’s to the point now where it might be more profitable to roll the dice on Ilyasova considering he plays more minutes and is only $200 more.

Marquese Chriss ($5,000): This is not a dream matchup for Chriss, but he does have 36.25 DraftKings points in 44 minutes against the Spurs so far this year. If Chriss plays 30-32 minutes again, he should be right around 5x value.

My pick: Collins(PF), Favors(PF)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 7: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on against the Los Angeles Lakers at Wells Fargo Center on December 7, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,100): Embiid probably should have been in five figures a long time ago. He only has 80.25 DraftKings points in two games against Detroit this year, but he has only played 60 minutes. If Drummond is held out, don’t worry about the cost. Just pay it. Embiid will be a monster if that happens. He may be anyway.

Dwight Howard ($8,400): You would think that Jokic would be a great play with Gobert out, but that wasn’t the case when these two teams faced off last week. I would much prefer Howard against the Lakers. Howard put up 39 DraftKings points on them the first time around. That would be a tad under value, but Howard also played only 31 minutes because of foul trouble.

Honorable Mention:

Jusuf Nurkic ($7,300): Nurkic has at least 6x value in three of the last four games. It seems as though his minutes are better than they were a week ago, but he is still not up to 30 minutes. If Nurkic gets back to that point again, look out! He racked up 33.75 DraftKings points in just 24 minutes on Atlanta the first time. Nurkic is a pretty strong play tonight.

Enes Kanter ($5,900): Kanter put up 44 DraftKings points on the Heat in their first meeting in just 25 minutes! How when you factor in a Hassan Whiteside on limited minutes, there is a very good chance that Kanter comes up with something close to that total here tonight. That makes Kanter a strong value play.

Dark Horses:

Boban Marjanovic ($4,600): Boban was huge in place of Drummond on Wednesday night. If Drummond sits again, I still like Marjanovic with Embiid in there. The upside is plenty big enough with the price this low. However, Boban wont see nearly enough minutes if Drummond plays.

Tyson Chandler ($4,400): Chandler was out for rest on Wednesday. Greg Monroe turned in a very nice performance. It seems as though the Suns will move back to Chandler and leave Monroe to rot once again. Chandler is averaging exactly 5x value against the Spurs this year. He is a suitable option, albeit with no upside, if you need to go really cheap.

My pick: Embiid(C), Kanter(UTIL); Chandler(C)

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