Early DraftKings NBA picks January 5: Curry dominates the small slate
After the huge slate last night, we are down to just two games in the matinee DraftKings tournaments. Only the Warriors, Clippers, Nets, and Celtics bring it to the court today, and two of the four are on back to backs. This is mostly void of stars besides Curry and Griffin. Should we use either of them?
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You needed some good value last night if you stacked the Pistons/Sixers game. It came in the form of Kawhi, Beastley, and Lyles.
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Stephen Curry ($10,000): The Clippers are pretty tough at the point, but Curry got to them for 55.25 DraftKIngs points in the first meeting. Curry is one of two or three players that has a legit shot at 50 tonight, a mark that Curry has hit in all three games since returning from an ankle injury. Curry is a safe play if you are spending big.
Kyrie Irving ($8,400): Despite the tough matchup on paper, Irving has 85.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets so far this season. That would put Irving right at 5x value if he can pull it off again. Irving is a suitable option for those fading Curry.
Lou Williams ($7,600): I don’t really like this matchup, but with Milos Teodosic most likely out, Williams may be back in the starting lineup again. Williams only had 21.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but he also played only 25 minutes. He should play at least 35 tonight, so Williams could get pretty close to value, with or without his shot falling.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,200): I’m not crazy about starting anyone against Boston, but Dinwiddie has managed 64.25 DraftKings points against them in the two games so far. If you are looking for 5x value at lower ownership, Dinwiddie could provide that. His track record against Boston is solid.
Terry Rozier ($5,100): I still think that the time to use Rozier was last night. The price and the matchup were both better. However, Rozier is still playing well lately, so there is a chance that he keeps it up here. Just keep in mind that the Nets are in the top ten in both PG and SG defense.
My pick: Curry(PG), Williams(G), Dinwiddie(UTIL)
Klay Thompson ($6,600): Thompson went big against the Rockets on Thursday with Durant out. I like using Thompson more if Durant is out again, but he did put up 29.25 DraftKings points in the first game with the Clippers. Oh, and the Clips had Austin Rivers and Teodosic for that game. The Clippers guards are depleted, so Thompson could be in line for another nice game. Especially if KD is out.
Jaylen Brown ($6,100): Brown has 55.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets this season. That would leave you a little under value, but SG is a tricky position today. I’m likely moving off of Thompson as well if KD plays, and this will be one place worth looking. Especially with Caris LeVert still out.
Allen Crabbe ($4,800): Often I think Crabbe gets lost in the shuffle on larger DFS days. On smaller slates he stands out because of his consistency. Crabbe has 53.5 DraftKings points in two games against Boston this year. He also has three straight games above 5x value. I like Crabbe for this price with LeVert out because the minutes are there for him to score in the low 30’s or even a little better.
Wesley Johnson ($4,000): Remember when Johnson was priced this low when Gallinari and Griffin first went down? Johnson was the value darling for over a week before his price caught up. The Clippers are very thin in the backcourt, which means more run for Johnson. Even if he doesn’t start, 5x value is a sure thing with 6 or 7x likely.
Joe Harris ($3,900): Harris has 44.5 DraftKings points in two games with Boston so far. That alone has me riding him instead of the sporadic production or minutes of Thornwell or C.J. Williams. Johnson is going to get a lot of those minutes, so Harris looks to be the safer pick.
My pick: Crabbe(SG)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,000): Boston’s issues with power forwards are well know, and that is where RHJ has been picking up a lot of his minutes lately. He has 68.25 DraftKings points in just two games against the Celtics this year. With Kevin Durant likely out again, this position gets shallow very quickly.
Jayson Tatum ($5,900): :Let’s be honest. You’re playing the upside if you go this route. Tatum has put up some good games this season, but not against Brooklyn. The Nets seems to have kept him under wraps pretty well, ceding only 45 DraftKings points to him in two games. Keep that in mind if you decide to go this route. The matchup is decent on paper though.
Andre Iguodala ($4,100): Almost the entire Warriors team is carrying a probable designation with the exception of Durant. The consensus is that KD will sit, but make sure to check leading up to tipoff. This isn’t as precarious as say, the DeMarre Carroll situation where we likely wont have an official word before the lineups lock. With Durant likely out, Iggy will start. He put up 29.5 DraftKings points in his start on Thursday, so I’m in on this one too!
Omri Casspi ($3,700): There is a slight chance that Casspi starts this game, but I would think that Iguodala is the guy to have. However, Casspi has been strong off the bench. I still find it tough for Casspi to get much more than Iggy. At least not enough to justify the only $400 price difference.
My pick: Hollis-Jefferson(SF), Iguodala(F)
Draymond Green ($7,700): Before you ask, yes, I’m fading Griffin. He only had 26.25 DraftKings points against the Warriors in the first meeting, and it has a lot to do with Draymond here. Green picked up 41.75 DraftKings points in that game, and he costs less than Griffin. The chances of Draymond outscoring Griffin again are really good, so I’m spending my green on Green.
Al Horford ($7,500): Horford picked up 72.25 DraftKings points in the first two meetings with the Nets. Those aren’t great numbers, but on a light slate like today, Horford makes more sense than a few guys priced above him. There is decent upside here even if the doesn’t grab 5x value.
Jordan Bell ($4,500): I consider the six minutes against Houston an outlier. I still think that Bell gets around 20 minutes per game going forward. Of course, it’s hard to get value when he isn’t even playing half the game. The Warriors do want to keep giving him looks, but it doesn’t look like it will be with any consistency.
Quincy Acy ($3,700): Acy does a lot of things that don’t show up on a stat sheet. He still gets consistent minutes for the Nets, and doesn’t really garner much fantasy attention outside of shallow DFS slates. Acy has 33.5 DraftKings points in two games against The Celtics this season. That shows he gets ample run to hit value. If you load a lineup with stars and need salary relief, Acy is the safest place to get it but he offers no upside.
My pick: Green(PF)
DeAndre Jordan ($7,400): Center is a barren wasteland tonight. You can slide Horford or Blake down to center, which helps out some. Jordan only had 24.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Warriors, but he also played only 26 minutes. If the Clippers can keep the game close, Jordan will have a better chance of hitting value.
Aron Baynes ($3,600): Baynes has been starting at center with Horford moving to power forward. The Celtics seem to like this look, though it offers little in the form of fantasy relevance for Baynes. That said, he is the most likely player in this price range to post 20 DraftKings points, but he wont show you 30.
Jahlil Okafor ($3,300): Okafor played 11 minutes on Wednesday against Minnesota, and looked a little rusty. That can be expected. However, he did look in shape, which is what the coaching staff wanted to see. I doubt Okafor jumps over 18 minutes or so tonight, but after seeing what Towns did to Boston last night, exposure to the Celtic frontcourt could be a really good thing, Zeller will likely start, but Okafor has solid upside. It will mostly depend on just how much the Nets let him play.
My pick: Baynes(C)
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