FanDuel NFL Lineups: Wild Card 2018
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the 2018 Wild Card edition of FanDuel NFL Lineups. We’re a Daily Fantasy Football column focused on top picks and best value for your weekly FanDuel NFL lineups. We arm you with information for a big FanDuel NFL payday each week.
Last week, mostly because several top teams were either sitting or limiting the time of their top players, we were able to build winning lineups. Also, because of the limited top options, winning in cash games, and even GPP’s, wasn’t difficult. We had 128.02 FanDuel NFL points in one of our lineups and won money in every play.
Our top picks last week were Alvin Kamara, Dion Lewis, and Keenan Allen. We also landed ten FanDuel NFL points with the Los Angeles Chargers defense. Unfortunately, while Allen and the Chargers were an emerging team with loads of talent, they fell short of the playoffs. It’s a shame, because Keenan and the Chargers defense would’ve been near the top of our board again this week.
Two of those top picks, Lewis and Kamara, made it into the playoffs. Alvin is clearly a lineup target for FanDuel NFL players as long as the Saints stay in the playoffs. We’ll discuss more about him later. Also, while Dion isn’t playing this week, he’s likely one of our top picks for the divisional playoffs. So, sticky-pad Lewis for now.
Here’s a look at whose on the 2018 Wild Card Schedule:
Saturday
Titans at Chiefs (4:20pm ET ESPN/ABC)
Falcons at Rams (8:15pm ET NBC)
Sunday
Bills at Jaguars (1:05pm ET CBS)
Panthers at Saints (4:40pm FOX)
Playing in Arrowhead is always difficult, so the Titans are immediately at a disadvantage. We don’t have any history of these teams playing each other this season, aside from a pre-season blowout by the Chiefs in Arrowhead. But we do know the Titans ended the season losing three of their final four games, winning only to the Jags at home to make their way into the playoffs.
The Falcons and Rams also don’t have a history, yet, this season. And we do know the Rams only one four of their last seven games. However, the Rams lost to the Eagles and Vikings during that time, the top two NFC seeds, and didn’t play their starters in the loss the the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Falcons won five of their last seven.
The Jaguars had an incredible defense all season, but struggled to defend the the 49ers and Titans with two losses on the road. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jags D is falling apart at the worst time of the season. Meanwhile, the Bills won three of their last four, including a difficult sweep of the Dolphins within a three week period.
We have plenty of history with the Panthers and Saints playing each other twice each season from the same division. In both match ups, the Saints were able to win. Also, the Saints won three of their last five, but lost in a surprise to the Bucs to end the season. The Panthers had an identical records in their last five games, losing to the Falcons to end the season.
With that re-cap in mind, let’s dig into the match ups and pick our top options for each position. We’ll start your NFL DFS optimal lineup with the Quarterbacks…
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Wild Card 2018 – Quarterbacks
Top Picks
The Titans passing defense looked solid, at times, in the first month of the season. Adoree’ Jackson is an above average corner back in the NFL this season. Kevin Byard is an elite Free Safety. But aside from Jackson and Byard, Chiefs veteran signal caller Alex Smith ($7,800) should be able to pick apart Tye Smith and Logan Ryan. The latter was great in the previous two seasons but seems to have take a step back this year. Even if Hill gets shadowed by Jackson this week, more on that later, Hunt and Kelce are still on the field.
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We debated between Smith and Drew Brees ($8,100) as the top quarterbacks this weekend. In the end, the Chiefs have a better match up at home, and Brees and the Saints are able to lean on a two-headed run-monster depleting the potential with the pass. Still, Drew saw the Panthers twice this season and is averaging around 17 FanDuel NFL points-per-game against the Saints divisional rival.
Other Top Option
This is the first time we’ve mentioned Matt Ryan ($7,500) as a potential top pick since September. And there’s certainly risk picking Ryan on the road against a solid Rams defense. But over the last three weeks, while Matty-ice has only thrown one touchdown in each game, he’s consistently flirting with 300 passing yards while only making a mistake once, and interception against the Saints. Also, this is familiar territory for a hot Falcons offense.
Fades
Jared Goff ($8,500) – One of the NFL DFS narratives this weekend will be stacking the Rams offense. We get it, the Rams have been one of the NFL’s top offenses all season, and Goff is leading the team, taking snaps. But a huge part of the offense is Todd Gurley, and Goff had over 16 FanDuel NFL points in only one of his last four starts. Also, the Falcons are a top 15 passing defense, and played very well during the end of the season. This salary makes no sense to me, don’t do it.
Blake Bortles ($7,600) – This game could go either way for Bortles. Just when we think Bortles is off, he’ll throw two or three touchdowns with no picks. But the Bills are a better passing defense than the Jags have seen in about a month. Also, in his last two games, Blake threw five interceptions. Playing Bortles isn’t worth it. The wheels could come off in Jacksonville this week.
Cam Newton ($8,300) – Fading Newton can always backfire, but he’s thrown just one touchdown and four interceptions in the final two games of the season. The Saints passing defense is quietly one of the best the the NFC. Yes, Cam threw four touchdowns against the Packers several weeks ago, but outside of that game, it’s been almost two months since we’ve seen solid consistent performance from Newton.
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Wild Card 2018 – Running Backs
Top Picks
Todd Gurley II ($10,000) is hopefully an obvious pick to all FanDuel NFL players. The only risk playing Todd is that he essentially had a bye week last Sunday. That aside, Gurley is averaging over 23 FanDuel NFL points-per-game. Todd is second in the NFL with 1,305 rushing yards, averaging 4.7 per carry. But with 13 rushing touchdowns, Todd is clearly a top DFS NFL back this season.
Even better, Gurley had 64 receptions this season, more than most NFL receivers, 788 receiving yards and an additional 6 receiving touchdowns. In short, you’re paying a lot for Todd, but you’re also paying for a guaranteed touchdown and over 100 yards from scrimmage against a good Falcons defense this week.
Sticking with the rushing and passing attack from our running back picks, we’re also targeting Alvin Kamara ($9,100) this week. In fact, it’s possible to stack Gurley with Kamara, which we’ll get to later.
Looking at Kamara’s weekly stat sheet can be misleading. With only nine rushing attempts last week, Alvin had 44 yards. But he also had a rushing touchdown, seven targets, six receptions, and 84 receiving yards. Like Todd, with Alvin you’re getting a near lock for 100+ yards from scrimmage and a high likelihood for a touchdown.
If you need a cheaper pick, Kareem Hunt ($8,200) is the obvious next pick. In fact, Hunt is arguably a bargain. With 272 rushing attempts, Kareem leads the NFL in rushing yards, 1,327 or 4.9 per attempt. Hunt only has eight rushing touchdowns, but he has twelve 20+ rushing attempts, tied with LeSean McCoy.
Other Top Options
While the Bills had a solid passing defense most of this season, their run defense has been pretty terrible. Giving up 124.6 yards per game and over 22 points per game, the Bills are going to struggle to maintain the ground game from Leonard Fournette ($8,100). Fournette is a passing target too, but he’s not as dangerous as Kamara, Hunt, or Gurley, which reduces his value. But against the Bills, Fournette should have over 100 rushing yards and at least a touchdown, from the red zone.
One of our top value picks last week was Derrick Henry ($6,500). With Demarco Murray ruled out again this Saturday, Henry is once again a top value pick this week. Last week against the Jags, Derrick saw 28 rushing attempts for only 51 yards, but then burst open on a passing rough for 66 yards and a touchdown. He’s a solid 15 to 20 point candidate in Kansas City this week as well.
Fades
Christian McCaffrey ($6,800) – In the last six weeks, McCaffrey only has more than 13 FanDuel NFL points once, against the Packers. In that game, Newton was hot and hit Christian with seven targets, six receptions, 73 receiving yards and a touchdowns.
On the ground, McCaffrey has been unimpressive this season. While the Saints gave up over 100 receiving yards to McCaffrey in the air, that was on September 24th, over three months ago. Since then, McCaffrey has been unable to replicate that result, including a game in New Orleans, later in the season. There’s some upside here, but for this price you have better options.
LeSean McCoy ($7,900) – He’s questionable. And after last weeks injury, even if he’s questionable, we have to think McCoy will struggle on the field if he plays. Against a solid Jags team and after a really tough injury, don’t waste the salary on this pick.
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Wild Card 2018 – Wide Receivers
Top Picks
In three of the last four Falcons games, Julio Jones ($8,500) saw eleven targets. In those games, he averaged over five receptions, around 100 yards per game, but no touchdowns. In fact, Julio only has three touchdowns all season. But with 1,444 receiving yards this year, Jones is second in the NFL in receiving yards.
This week, we have to imagine the Falcons have several touchdown looks between Ryan and Jones drawn up, or their season is over. Jones is a solid 15 FanDuel NFL point pick, with upside well over 20 points.
Michael Thomas ($8,300) is tied with Jones for 149 targets this season, sixth most in the NFL. Thomas is sixth in the NFL in receiving yards, 1,245, but he has five touchdowns, two more than Julio, and also should be a hot target for Brees this week.
In the four games prior to his final for the season (12/24), Robert Woods ($7,400) had four to eight receptions with nearly ten targets per game. Woods also averaged around 100 receiving yards per game, during that period, and piled up five touchdowns.
Robert may only have 56 receptions, 781 yards, and five touchdowns this season, but Woods didn’t really connect well with Goff until October. Also, Robert had some injury issues. Now, with the season on the line, in the playoffs, Jared will look to Robert often, and should be a top three or four FanDuel NFL play this weekend.
Other Top Picks
With a three-wide set, Tyreek Hill ($7,700) should match up with Tye Smith, exposing him for Smith in the open field, and sometimes deep. Aside from a quiet game against the Broncos in late October, Smith and Hill have been on the same page this season.
Hill is averaging seven targets per game, hauling in five receptions per game, averages about 80 yards, and totaled seven touchdowns this season. Hill is a top four of five wide receiver play this week, but risky if shadowed by a very good Adoree’ Jackson.
Even though Jones has been a hot target for Ryan over the last couple of weeks, Mohamed Sanu ($5,800) is still seeing just under seven targets per game. Mohamed had over 700 yards this season with five touchdowns. Also, Sanu is a direct-snap play in several calls from the Falcons offensive coordinator, further increasing his value in a playoff game.
We don’t love Mariota or the Titans offense this week, but Rishard Matthews ($5,500) is a Titans target machine who could quietly rack up nearly 100 yards and a touchdown, even in a loss to the Chiefs.
In the same game, Albert Wilson ($5,200) is listed as questionable but is very likely to play. Wilson ended his season on December 31st with ten receptions, from eleven targets, for 147 yards. Even with Hill in the game, and especially if Hill is getting shadowed, Albert is a great target this week.
Fades
Devin Funchess ($7,000) – First of all, he’s questionable on the injury report. Second, Funchess has done very little in the two games against the Saints. And third, the biggest problem, Devin will face rookie corner back star Marshon Lattimore for the first time this season. That equation equals, no thanks!
Sammy Watkins ($6,700) – The speedy receiver has an incredible eight touchdowns this season. But he’s a hit-or-miss play. Against the Falcons defensive backs this week, who are playing well, it’s possible Watkins could have less than five FanDuel NFL points.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,300) – In the case that the Jaguars defensive backs finally bounce back this week, I don’t like any of the Bills receivers, especially their tall, inconsistent, top touchdown target.
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Wild Card 2018 – Tight End / Kicker / Defense
We love Smith this week, and one of his favorite targets is Travis Kelce ($7,700). Given the receiving match ups, Kelce is likely going to be one of the better solutions for Alex as he progresses through his options each snap. But at best, we’re getting 15 to 20 points from Travis, and it’s going to be hard to afford top receiver or running back options if we’re also loading Kelce into the lineup.
Aside from the stellar passing game Newton had against the Packers, he’s struggled to find Greg Olsen ($6,500) much since he returned from an injury. Oddly, Olsen is seeing nearly nine targets a game, but only hauling in a couple receptions. Something is wrong there.
Instead, I’d rather grab Delanie Walker ($5,800), who’s grabbing more of his targets. But our favorite tight end target this week is Charles Clay ($5,500). Over the last three weeks. Tyrod Taylor has targeted Clay eight to ten times, and he’s hauled in four to six receptions. While none of those receptions were touchdowns, he’s Tyrod’s favorite red zone target. This week, with the receivers locked up against great corners, Clay will be a hot route for Taylor.
At kicker, in short, pick one. Wil Lutz ($5,200) is a great option with the stellar Saints defense, but he’s a little pricey. So we’re choosing to save some money for bigger running back picks and grabbing Harrison Butker ($4,900), who’s averaging over 12 FanDuel NFL points per game with a team we like to win this week.
Finally, deafness is tough. The vast majority of the playoff teams are in this position because they have great defense. And while the Jacksonville Jaguars are the most expensive, and attractive pick, they’ve looked odd over the last two weeks. Instead, we like a sneaky, but solid pick, the New Orleans Saints ($4,600).
The Saints get most of their weekly headlines from Brees, Ingram, Thomas, and of course Kamara. But their defense is quietly keeping them in games, and they are boosting some of the better defensive backs in the league right now. And for this price, they feel like a bargain.
So after reviewing all of the options, we put together our favorite lineup for Wild Card weekend 2018. Here’s a look:
QB Smith (KC $7,800)
RB Kamara (NO $9,100)
RB Gurley (LAR $10,000)
WR Woods (LAR $7,400)
WR Matthews (TEN $5,500)
WR Wilson (KC $5,200)
TE Clay (BUF $5,500)
K Butker (KC $4,900)
Def New Orleans Saints ($4,600)
This leaves us with $0 left, maximizing our picks using value in two receiver positions, defense, and kicker and loading up on some big point potential at quarterback, running back, and receiver.
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for the week. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NFL lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
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Enjoy the Wild Card weekend of the NFL playoffs and good luck with your FanDuel NFL plays. Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!