Despite being the lowest seed in the NFC playoffs, the Atlanta Falcons have the clearest path to Super Bowl 52.
A few weeks ago it looked like there was a chance the Atlanta Falcons weren’t going to have a chance to defend their NFC crown. After the first weekend of playoff action, Atlanta now has the clearest and easiest path to getting back to the Super Bowl.
Atlanta didn’t blow out Los Angeles on Saturday but did what a good playoff team does. The Rams were held at arm’s length the entire game, and the Falcons played mistake-free football for 60 minutes. It’s not sexy, but winning in the playoffs doesn’t need to be stylish even if you’re doing so in Hollywood. All Atlanta needs to do is keep this up and stay out of its own way in order to become the first No. 6 seed to reach the Super Bowl in seven years.
Getting back to the Super Bowl isn’t statistically easy, but it’s hard to deny the Falcons have the clearest path.
Back in 2011, the Green Bay Packers snuck into the playoffs as the sixth-seed in the NFC and marched all the way to the franchise’s first Super Bowl win since 1997. Green Bay’s path that year saw them emerge from Wild Card weekend to face a shaky Falcons team in the Divisional round and Jay Cutler in the Championship game. While Atlanta and Chicago were the top two seeds in the conference that year, they were more styrofoam than brick as far as being a wall standing in Green Bay’s path.
Atlanta’s path has the same structure as that Packers team. The Falcons are headed to Philadelphia next weekend for a game that far more people will feel comfortable picking them in than you might have thought. Without Carson Wentz, the Eagles are vulnerable and with Nick Foles under center, they’re very beatable. The defense has been bleeding stats for weeks and there are questions about whether or not Doug Pederson has his young team ready for primetime. Anything can happen, but among the teams that earned a first-round bye, the Eagles are far and away the best draw.
If the Falcons can get out of Philly, they’d face any combination of Minnesota, New Orleans or Carolina. All three teams beat Atlanta at one point or another during the season, but none of the three have world-beating qualities. Minnesota has the narrative pressure of being the first team to ever host a Super Bowl, plus the anxiety of the Case Keenum shoe dropping at the worst possible moment. Carolina is always a wild card depending on which version of Cam Newton you get, and the Saints can be forced into making mistakes that end up costing them. It could simply come down to which team is hottest and the Falcons will at that point have had two games to rev their engine and fine tune the motor.
The evidence is clear to see. Matt Ryan and the offense didn’t turn the ball over at all, something that was a struggle during the season. Defensively the Falcons are hitting their stride with stars like Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, and Robert Alford kicking off the postseason by holding the highest scoring offense to less than two touchdowns. If the game is tight, Matt Bryant might be the most reliable kicker a team could hope for. Lest we forget that at any given point, Julio Jones is capable of turning in a 200-yard performance or making a game-changing catch. Dan Quinn and the coaching staff are battle-tested, and that kind of leadership can’t be discounted.
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Getting back to the Super Bowl isn’t statistically easy, but it’s hard to deny the Falcons have the clearest path.