Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Saturday’s top NBA DFS performances were all about the stars as LeBron James (75), Giannis Antetokounmpo (65), Victor Oladipo (55), DeMarcus Cousins (54) and Karl-Anthony Towns (51) were the top five point scorers on the slate! In the tournaments I entered, the Cavs/Magic stacks cashed across the board (aided by LeBron’s massive night) where my Pelicans/Wolves stack failed to have the same consistent success!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
Welcome to the Sunday Edition of Picks and Pivots, we have an interesting four game Main Slate this evening with a lone 7PM EST game, an 8PM EST game and the last two contests kicking off at 9 and 9:30PM EST.
The biggest injury news we have on this slate is that Kawhi Leonard has already been ruled out as has Tony Parker & Rudy Gay while Danny Green is questionable to play. LaMarcus Alrdidge is shown as OUT on many sites as I write this early in the morning but that is a result of Friday absence and we should expect to see LMA on the court tonight against his former team, the Portland Trail Blazers.
If we take the four Spurs players mentioned off the court this season, it is not surprising to see Aldridge leading the team with a 35% usage rate while putting up 1.28 FP/M and he steps into this game averaging 45 FP per game over his previous two outings before Friday’s off day. Aldridge is priced fairly across the industry at $14K on FantasyDraft and $8.4K on FanDuel but the match-up against Portland is a tough one as they rank 4th in Def-Eff as a team this year, 6th at the PF position and 2nd against opposing Centers.
Dejounte Murray sees the biggest boost of any Spur with the four players mentioned off the court as he gets a 6% usage boost and is second on the team with a 27.5% usage rate and 1.15 FP/M behind only Aldridge. Murray let the world down in his last start, playing only 8 minutes so there is a ton of risk here and at the same price point I would rather look to Bryn Forbes who has started and played 40 and 32 minutes in his last two outings while averaging just under 24 fantasy points which would put him over 3.2x on FantasyDraft and at 6.7x on FanDuel where he is minimum priced!
Where the Spurs injuries are “known” (as much as any Spurs injuries can be) the two spots we need to keep an eye out for news today are in New York as Michael Beasley is questionable to play with a sprained ankle that kept him out of practice and in Phoenix, T.J. Warren remains questionable due to illness which kept him out of their game on Friday and out of practice on Saturday!
NBA DFS – All the OKC and ALL the Westbrook:
The only game right now we do not have Vegas information for is OKC at Phoenix due to the aforementioned T.J. Warren injury but we do know this game has the second fastest projected pace on the slate and the Thunder see the second largest pace boost of any team in action.
Let me start here – Russell Westbrook ($21.2K and $11.8K) is the sole top end stud on this slate and anytime we get a short slate like this I am going to do everything I can to lock in a player that will likely be the raw points leader on the night. Now step back and look at the match-up – Westbrook sees a massive pace boost and will take on a Suns team ranked 29th in DvP, Def-Eff and DRPM versus the PG position. So pace increase, short slate, no other stars and one of the worst defenses in the NBA as a team and against PG’s….Do. Not. Fade. Westbrook.
As much of a lock as Westbrook is, I actually think a full on stack of the Thunder starters is the way to attack the core of your build today. With Andre Roberson out and Alex Abrines questionable, the Thunder are showing a pattern of playing their starters extended minutes with a small bench rotation behind them. Last game out, the Thunder played all 5 starters 31+ minutes while only Raymond Felton and Jerami Grant saw 20+ minutes off the bench.
Terrance Ferguson ($6K and $3.6K) was the chalk du jour last time out – the sexy new punt that everyone jammed in on a two game slate and was a relative letdown as he only put up 15 fantasy points. I really hope that people soured on him and move away because the match-up today simply could be better and if 15-16 fantasy points is his floor then it makes me feel comfortable about the upside that exists here. Put the fantasy game log aside for a second and look closer at the usage last game – Ferguson shot the ball 12 times including TEN three-point attempts – so this is a player who has a clear offensive role and is not afraid to shoot. In a pace up spot against a bad defense with a starting role confirmed, I would go right back to Fergie today!
Paul George ($15K) and Carmelo Anthony ($12K) are both priced fairly on this slate and the fact that I can lock in elite talents like them who I know are going to play 30+ minutes in a massive pace up spot makes them easy plug and plays on a short slate like this. One interesting thing to note on FantasyDraft is that T.J. Warren ($12K) is the exact same price as Melo so I love having the flexibility (if Warren plays) to mix and match these two across the same core line-up!
With a Thunder stack firmly in place, I want to run it back with some Suns correlation and there is no better option on that side of the ball then Devin Booker ($14.5K) who gets the added benefit of no Andre Roberson defense to contend with! Booker dropped 50+ fantasy points on this Thunder team in their final meeting last year and we know Booker is going to play massive minutes and in a fast paced game environment like this could chuck up 20+ shot attempts as he has in three of his last six games.
Marquese Chriss ($10.5K) is never a cash game play and personally he has probably burned me more times than he has helped me but it is hard to ignore the role he has carved out recently with 30-33 minutes in three straight games while averaging 33.3 fantay points per game over that stretch. Chriss will get the benefit of Carmelo Anthony defense, and with Chriss putting up 13, 13 and 17 shot attempts over his last three games can be counted on for a significant offensive role especially if Warren is ruled out!
Lastly, if Warren is ruled out, Josh Jackson ($7K) would likely enter the starting rotation as he did against the Spurs. Jackson was able to exceed 3x value (23 fantasy points) in only 22 minutes due to 5 personal fouls (guarding Kawhi will do that) but the upside is there for Jackson and I have no issue building him into my game stack here today if Warren is out!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
It may seem odd that the Hawks/Lakers game which has the highest total and fastest pace would be a pivot spot for me and not a core play but I am skeptical that this spot is as “can’t miss” as people will make it out to be.
First, the Lakers side is overly crowded right now with Luke Walton having a full complement of healthy bodies and with this game being home we know he will have Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at his disposal as well. Last game out the Lakers played 10 players ten or more minutes and only one player (Brandon Ingram) played 30+ minutes against the Hornets. In theory this should be an incredible match-up for the Lakers as the Hawks rank 25th in DvP and Def-Eff as a team but the crowded rotation give me pause and outside of Brandon Ingram (especially on FanDuel where I need two SF’s), I doubt I will have much exposure here. Ingram has the best individual match-up of any Lakers player as the Hawks 29th in DvP and 30th in Def-Eff defending the SF position so he makes for a great play on FanDuel at only $7K!
The Hawks are going to be the DFS darlings today just like they were a few days ago when they faced off with Phoenix. Atlanta sees the biggest pace boost of any team on the board and I expect the masses will flood their line-ups with Hawks players just like they did in that Suns match-up as the Lakers have been a match-up that touts tend to attack.
We saw the Hornets players become very popular against the Lakers last time out but I feel the same way about the Hawks today as I did with the Hornets that night. What is the real upside for these guys and even on a four game slate is there any player on the Hawks that you feel is a must in order to cash on this slate.
We saw the Hornets big three – Kemba Walker (43), Dwight Howard (33) and Nicolas Batum (16) put up decent but not slate breaking scores in that game. The Hawks meanwhile in their game against the Suns had a very similar fantasy day as Kent Bazemore (36) was the leading fantasy producer for Atlanta while only Ersan Illyasova (33) was able to crack the 30 point mark in that outing.
My point here is simply – just because the match-up is good on paper doesn’t mean I need to force secondary talents into my line-up especially when they are popular. I keep going back to this simple point – is there any player in this game you think you will look back and say – Man, I needed to have Player X from this Hawks/Lakers game in order to cash. Dennis Schroder ($13.5K) certainly has the ability and usage to put up a good outing and we saw Kemba Walker just put up 40+ against this Lakers team but to me, Schroder is priced for his ceiling and his popularity has me looking elsewhere.
So where else can you look? Personally I love the spot for Dennis Smith Jr. ($12.7K and $5.9K) who gets to take on a Knicks team that passed on him in the draft (Narrative Street!) and is ranked 26th in DvP and 28th in Def-Eff in defending opposing PG’s. DSJ has 12+ shot attempts in four straight games and it is worth noting that Dallas sees the biggest projected point boost on the slate (4+ points over their season average). Dwight Powell ($7.1K) is not someone who will jump off the page but it’s becoming clear the Mavericks are leaning on him more heavily off the bench than starter Maxi Kleber. Powel has put up 22 and 36 fantasy points in his last two games and most interestingly, if you look at the game flow we can see Kleber subbed out mid-way through the 3rd quarter for Powell and Dwight never came off the court. Never underestimate who a team chooses to close with as we saw the exact same scenario in the previous hame against Golden State!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up:
G: Russell Westbrook ($21,200)
G: Devin Booker ($14,500)
G: Dennis Smith Jr. ($12,700)
F/C: Carmelo Anthony ($12,000)
F/C: Paul George ($15,000)
F/C: Marquese Chriss ($10,500)
Util: Josh Jackson ($7,000)
Util: Dwight Powell ($7,100)
Slate Overview: Click in Russell Westbrook before you do anything else today – it is as simple as that. For me, as a tournament player I like the idea of fading the Atlanta/Lakers game in the hope the production is spread out and instead I can zero in on the Thunder starters who will all play 30+ minutes in a massive pace up spot against a bad Phoenix defense.
Next: FanDuel NFL Wild Card Picks
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!