DeAndre Ayton’s defense shouldn’t scare you away from betting on his offensive talent
On the surface, DeAndre Ayton seems like a generational talent at center. His combination of mobility and a thick, jacked frame brings out David Robinson comparisons. Ayton has all of the tools a center could ever want, and he’s put them to good use this year, acting as perhaps college basketball’s most imposing offensive big man.
Averaging 19.7 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, Ayton has kept pace with Marvin Bagley and Trae Young’s absurd stat lines this season. We haven’t seen a player look this physically gifted in a long time at his age, and there’s still room for him to improve.
Ayton’s offensive game is outstanding. He has the basic package of skills that every big should have, and flashes plenty of other skills that could give him an immense offensive ceiling in the NBA. To start, he’s a brilliant finisher, converting an insane 86.8 percent at the rim, per hoop-math. He is unaffected by contact around the rim, and he receives his fair share due to his size.
Ayton hasn’t really been used much a pick-and-roll finisher this year, but he’s looked good when he does. Get him going with a head of steam at the rim, and he’s difficult to stop. He also shows a pretty workable post game, focused on using his size to carve out space to finish rather than operating with craft. He is more DeMarcus Cousins than Enes Kanter down low, but using his girth is going to be what works for him in the NBA, as well.
Ayton’s also a functional offensive rebounder, posting a 12.1 percent offensive rebound percentage. Not phenomenal, but he clears space out well, and uses his 7-foot-5 wingspan and vertical athleticism to high point the ball against opponents. He goes up strong with putbacks, and he’s also shown the awareness to track and grab long rebounds off 3-point misses, a valuable skill that allows your guards to get back in transition defense.
There is also some untapped potential that could make him a number one option with time in the NBA. His passing, for one, has been improving throughout the season, and he shows impressive vision for a big man. He’s been making more and more of these Luka Doncic-style skip passes in the past few games, which should help diversify his threat from the post.
Ayton’s perimeter game also gets a lot of hype, although it’s less developed than other recent high-level offensive bigs like Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis. Ayton’s jumper is inconsistent, even from his preferred spot along the right baseline, and while his handle is strong in the post, he’s nowhere near ready to bring the ball up the floor or attempt any pick-and-roll yet. However, he has the basic skills in his arsenal, and it’s not a stretch that like Cousins, he could develop those skills throughout his rookie contract in the NBA.
With that repertoire of physical tools and offensive skills, Ayton should be considered a can’t-miss prospect. However, his defense has left a lot to be desired throughout the season. Ayton started off really rocky, much like the rest of the Wildcats on this end, and didn’t seem to understand how to operate as a weakside help defender, routinely blowing rotations and getting caught out of position to contest shots. This has improved a bit during Arizona’s 9-0 run since Rawle Alkins returned to the lineup, but he still struggles to defend at the rim. Given his athletic profile projects him to operate as a rim protector, that’s not great for his early outlook.
This has caused some to be hesitant to crown Ayton as a top-three pick. Given what we’ve seen from Karl-Anthony Towns defensively over the past two years, there is concern for how well an offense-first five can actually perform as a top player on a team in the modern NBA. Defense at the five is incredibly important to the success of a team’s overall performance, and that may limit Ayton’s effect on the win/loss column, even if he’s a dominant offensive player.
Those are legitimate concerns for when we are talking about Ayton’s ceiling, but frankly, that is likely putting the horse before the cart when it comes to the Draft. We want Ayton to be a stronger Anthony Davis because it would solidify Ayton’s floor as a prospect. The defensive issues cast doubt there. But that doesn’t mean that he’s going to be unplayable if he struggles at first. Bigs are vital to overall team defense, but they’re also typically given a long leash, especially if their offensive value is great to their team’s offensive success. That means opportunities to learn for Ayton, and a lot of his issues are things that look solvable in the right situation and given enough time.
Ayton doesn’t appear willing or certain of when to utilize his frame as a weapon on the defensive end, rather than suffering from effort problems. His jerky movements in the paint on defense and occasional possessions where he looks frozen in time trying to figure out where to rotate are symptomatic of an issue with his decision-making process. That can be a difficult thing to correct, but it usually improves over time, in conjunction with how effectively the player is able to use their physical talents as well. We rush to critique big men in their second or third seasons, when in reality it can often take until a player is 23 or 24-years old to harness their abilities. For whatever reason, this seems to be a common trait for some of the NBA’s more physically gifted centers in recent years, as players like DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond have only recently started to solidify their defensive impact.
The point here is that Ayton’s defense is concerning, but it would not be a surprise to see him struggle early on in his NBA career even if he was dominating at the college level. He starts behind the curve, sure, but he will get the time to figure things out on defense if his offense translates at a high level, which it seems likely to do. You have to remember that Ayton will likely be headed to a bad team, one that is accumulating assets and trotting out a young team, and his ability to score efficiently within the flow of an offense and on his own will be immediately valuable to his team. We might not need to expect his defense to make an impact in year three, because he might not be on a team that is optimized to need his defense to compete, even at that point. In part, that offensive potential may outweigh his defensive negatives in the short term, as him at his ceiling will help a team get by as they get ready to contend, and his defense slowly builds.
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Ayton is a very exciting offensive prospect, and he should be able to help a lot of teams that might be towards the top of the draft. While his defense isn’t great right now, and doesn’t figure to be for a while in the NBA, he has the physical tools to eventually get to the point where he is no longer bad. In the meantime, his profile as a DeMarcus Cousins-style bruiser that also can dabble in the finesse will be beneficial to his team. Even if he’s not quite on that level, he should be able to get by as the bones of a good team are assembled around him. Because of that offensive capability and his frame-backed potential, Ayton should be the firm number two prospect behind Luka Doncic at this point.