Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Sunday’s top NBA DFS performer not surprisingly was Russell Westbrook who at massive ownership levels across all contests put up 59.5 fantasy points on the night and was closely followed by LaMarcus Aldridge with 55 fantasy points. Some low owned punt plays made the biggest difference as Dragan Bender (43.5) was the fourth highest scoring player on the night after taking over for an injured Marquese Chriss while Manu Ginobili turned back the clock and racked up 42 fantasy points of his own!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start?
We get a loaded eight game slate tonight with five of eight games already having Vegas information and all with game totals of 212 or higher so this should be a high scoring night with a ton of stars to choose from!
The Warriors and Nuggets game has the second highest projected pace on the slate and we have a ton of injury news on the Golden State side that will really alter the slate depending on how it breaks. Kevin Durant has missed the last two games for the Warriors and is questionable for this match-up and his injury would immediately make Stephen Curry ($18.8K) one of the best plays of the night!
With Durant off the court this season, Curry gets an 8% usage boost, leading the team with a 40% usage rate and 1.8 FP/M. Curry has put up 50+ fantasy points in five straight games and is coming off a 66 point outing in his last game against the Clippers and now gets to take on a Nuggets team at home ranked 29th in DvP and 24th in Def-Eff at defending the PG position. I am starting here for a reason – if Durant is ruled out – this is the very first spot you go tonight.
Andre Drummond has missed two of his last three games and is questionable for tonight’s game against the Pelicans. His absence would be less about what it means for the Pistons and more about what it means for DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis on the other side – who in the world is stopped them if Drummond is out?
It looks like we are going to be without Kawhi Leonard for a while with a tear in his shoulder which will continue to open up some value in San Antonio. The Spurs are on the tail end of a back to back so it is very likely we see someone like Manu Ginobili sit after his big time outing last night. With eight games to choose from, I do not see myself sorting through this Spurs-Kings game which has BY FAR the slowest pace and both already slow teams see a massive pace decrease.
The Nets will be without DeMarre Carroll against the Raptors tonight which makes Caris LeVert ($10K) one of the best point per dollar value plays on FantasyDraft tonight. LeVert comes into this game with 35-39 fantasy points in four straight games and will see an added usage boost with Carroll sidelined. LeVert is not a priority play for me but is one of those guys I have on my short list of plays tonight that delivers a solid cash game floor with GPP upside in the fastest paced game of the night!
NBA DFS – Core Plays:
No game on this slate has a faster projected pace than the Raptors and Nets so this is a spot we will want exposure and although I do love Caris LeVert on the Brooklyn side, the best play here in my opinion is Kyle Lowry ($13.7K and $7.9K on FanDuel). The price point on Lowry is simply too low considering he needs roughly 40 points to hit value when these are his last four games against Brooklyn – 49, 45, 45 and 51 fantasy points. With an average over 47 fantasy points, that puts his average game at GPP target value in both formats and I simply see no reason to fade him at this price point.
The one big injury we have yet to cover that has big time implications on my roster build is the concussion to Blake Griffin. Blake is officially listed as questionable for this game after a scary moment against the Warriors which forced him to leave the game and I would fully expect he misses today’s action as well.
#Clippers star Blake Griffin went down after catching an elbow to the head. His hand was trembling as he laid on the floor... pic.twitter.com/7cQnSdw0h4
— Def Pen Hoops (@DefPenHoops) January 6, 2018
The Clippers are going to be extremely short-handed tonight as they will be without the services of Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari and Austin Rivers and it looks likely they will also be without Griffin and Milos Teodosic who missed last game with a foot injury. If we take all those players off the court, we are left with Lou Williams ($14.5K) who gets a 5% usage rate and leads the teams with a massive 36% usage rate while putting up 1.3 FP/M.
The Clippers don’t have a high point total or see a pace boost but they get to take on an Atlanta Hawks defense ranked 25th in DvP and Def-Eff, playing on the tail end of a back to back after giving up 132 points to the Lakers last night!
Williams is not the only one who gets a big usage boost as DeAndre Jordan ($14.2K) gets 5.4% usage rate and has put up a team leading 1.43 FP/M with all the aforementioned Clippers off the court. The Hawks rank 27th in DvP and 25th in Def-Eff at defending the Center position so this is a high ceiling spot for Jordan and I would not hesitate to pair him with Lou Williams in all formats tonight.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
If Kevin Durant is ruled out, Stephen Curry is priority number 1 but there are secondary pieces on this Golden State team that should not be over-looked when building your core roster. Klay Thompson ($11.9K) sees a 5.1% usage bump with Durant off the court this year and is second on the team with a 31.5% usage rate while putting up 1.05 FP/M. The biggest drawback with Klay is he will face the defense of Gary Harris who is ranked 2nd in DRPM amongst all SG’s but Thompson was able to put up 32 fantasy points in the last meeting between these two teams when Curry sat out. If Durant sits, it is likely Andre Igoudala ($8.4K) who has averaged 27 minutes and 25 fantasy points in his last two starts would get the start and make for a viable value target at the forward position!
The interesting thing about this game is that if Kevin Durant does play it will completely change my initial approach so having a pivot in mind is critical to avoiding a late swap mistake. The Rockets and Bulls have the highest game total on the slate as of now and the third fastest projected pace so pivoting off Curry to Chris Paul ($17.8K) in this spot is a viable strategy. The Bulls rank 24th in DvP and 26th in Def-Eff in guarding the PG position and the fact that he is actually $400 more expensive on FanDuel than Stephen Curry makes him an interesting GPP pivot in the event Durant does where all the ownership will go to the cheaper Warriors PG.
On FantasyDraft, Kris Dunn ($12.2K) and Justin Holiday ($9.5K) make for valuable correlation plays if you opt to go with CP3 on the other side as the Bulls see the fourth largest pace boost on this slate and will need to lean on their backcourt duo to stay with the high scoring Rockets. Dunn will have to deal with CP3 defense, although with Paul having to put so much energy into running the offense this match-up is not as scary as it would be typically. In the last two games against CP3, he has given up 50 and 30 fantasy points to Curry and Ish Smith so this match-up is one we can exploit with Dunn and ignore the season long metrics!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up:
G: Stephen Curry ($18,800)
G: Kyle Lowry ($13,700)
G: Caris LeVert ($10,000)
F/C: DeAndre Jordan ($14,200)
F/C: Andre Igoudala ($8,400)
F/C: Wilson Chandler ($8,500)
Util: Lou Williams ($14,500)
Util: Klay Thompson ($11,900)
Slate Overview: Going in to today’s slate the biggest news item we need to pay attention to is the injury status for Kevin Durant as his absence would make the remaining Warriors must plays tonight. Outside of Durant, assuming we get the information that Blake Griffin is indeed out due to a concussion, I will be locking in the Clippers duo of Lou-Will and DeAndre Jordan into my line-ups in an elite spot against a bad Hawks defense!
Next: College Football Playoff Championship Preview and Pick
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!