DraftKings NBA picks January 9: Expect a big night from Westbrook

DraftKings NBA picks January 9: Expect a big night from Westbrook

We only have four games for our main DraftKings tournament on Tuesday night. Westbrook is $3,100 more than anyone else on this slate. Is he worth using at that price? Let’s check out a lineup with and without him.

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The lines were huge lines all over the place last night, most notable among Warriors and Clippers. Giannis was way under, and so was LeBron, so the value plays ruled the night.

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Point Guards

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,500): I find it really hard to fade Westbrook tonight. I know the price is outrageous, but he did put up 50.5 DraftKings points on Portland in the first meeting, and that was with Lillard in the game. With Lillard already ruled out, this play looks even better. If there is such a thing as a chalk play at this price, Westbrook is it tonight.

Lonzo Ball ($7,300): Ball put up 39.25 DraftKings points in his first game against the Kings this year. Ball has jumped right back in where he left off after missing about two weeks with a bum shoulder. He is safe to deploy tonight, and is where I want to start my lineup if I can’t afford Westbrook.

Honorable Mention:

Elfrid Payton ($7,200): Payton is still having problems getting consistent minutes for the Magic, which makes him a bit of a risk. Still, Payton’s low mark since mid-December is 29 DraftKings points. He still has a strong floor whether he starts or comes off the bench. A matchup with Dallas is a pretty solid one, and Payton could go for around 6x value if he gets enough run tonight.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,200): I am completely avoiding the Lowry-Dragic matchup. Both of them are really good defenders, so it makes sense to use Smith against Payton and the Magic, who are second to last in the league in fantasy points allowed to point guards. We have seen Smith put up some really good numbers this year, including 54 DraftKings points against the Pelicans two weeks ago. He may not have quite that big of a night, but it is certainly possible.

Dark Horses:

De’Aaron Fox ($5,500): Fox has taken full advantage of the absence of George Hill, putting up at least 5x value, even at this price, in three straight games. If you take it by Fox’s price that night, Fox has topped 7x value in all but last night’s. The price is getting too high for huge value, but Fox should still be at least 6x value tonight.

Shabazz Napier ($5,400): This is a tough matchup for Napier, but he is going to play a ton of minutes with Lillard out. When it comes down to it, I would take Fox because of the matchup, but if you are chasing low ownership, Napier should have 5x value at least. He has done well in his starts with Lillard out, but this presents the toughest test yet.

My pick: Westbrook(PG), Payton(G), Wright(UTIL); Smith Jr.(PG), Wright(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,300): DeRozan’s best and worst games of his last 12 have come against the Bucks. That highlights the inconsistency that we face with DeRozan at times. Miami provides a solid matchup for DeRozan with Dion Waiters still out. However, this is on the second night of a back to back, which is harder on jump shooters.

C.J. McCollum ($7,500): McCollum was nowhere close to value in the first meeting with the Thunder, but his numbers have been big with Lillard out. McCollum has been over 40 DraftKings points in five of the six games Lillard has missed lately. The Thunder guard the perimeter well, but McCollum’s sheer volume with Lillard sidelined should be enough to keep him above 5x value.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Richardson ($6,200): It’s to the point now where Waiters is going to have a hard time getting his job back. Richardson has at least 25 DraftKings points in 10 of the last 11 games, and has reached 5x value in nine of those. Richardson is a value machine right now, and routinely tops 6x value. Look for him to have another strong night against a somewhat tired Raptors team.

Wesley Matthews ($5,400): The veteran has been a stabilizing influence on the mostly young Dallas backcourt. Matthews has at least 5x value in seven straight games. Orlando likely wont slow him down with their porous perimeter defense. 7x value is entirely possible here.

Dark Horses:

Delon Wright ($4,400): Wright has been outstanding off of the Toronto bench for the last couple of weeks, and his role seems to be expanding. He has played at least 20 minutes in three straight games and has at least 7x value in all of them. I trust Wright as a backup in a secure role far more than I trust the whole situation in Sacramento. Also,with Lowry leaving the arena in a wheelchair last night after falling on his tailbone, there is a great chance that Wright starts this game.

Raymond Felton ($3,600): It has been Felton, not Terrance Ferguson, that has been picking up the slack with Roberson out lately. This is a tough situation, and both of them are a risk right now for that reason. However, Felton seems to have an upper hand on minutes and makes the safer pick if you need to dig this deep.

My pick: Matthews(SG), Richardson(F); Richardson(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($7,800): George is one of the better mid range options around tonight. He put up 42.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Portland. The Blazers still don’t have an answer for him defensively. However, I could see this game getting ugly without Lillard, which may mean decreased minutes for the Thunder starters. Even if that happens, George and Westbrook should still get closer to value since they are the ones that will put it out or hand.

Brandon Ingram ($6,800): Ingram still seems to be the most steady player in the Lakers offense. He lacks the upside that Ball and Kuzma do, but Ingram rarely goes much below 5x value, and is almost never below 4x. The others lay eggs on a fairly consistent basis. A short slate could be the place to trust in Ingram’s consistency.

Honorable Mention:

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,900): Bogdanovic has at least 20 DraftKings points in six straight games, but has not topped 5x value in that time. The consistency is nice, but he also offers little to no upside. The Kings 1-3 situation is tough to gamble on, but Fox and Bogdanovic are locks to start at two of the positions. That makes them worth consideration on a light night.

Wayne Ellington ($4,700): Ellington is one of the more forgotten pieces in Miami. He is still starting, and has topped 20 DraftKings points in six of the last eight games. Toronto presents a tougher matchup here, but Ellington may be safer than Bogdanovic and definitely has more upside.

Dark Horses:

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,500): Aminu has become an even larger part of the offense with Lillard out, but he still lacks consistency from his game to game output. Still, on a short slate, Aminu is still worth a look, especially if he ends up getting Melo on him defensively.

Terrance Ferguson ($3,500): Ferguson is still starting, so therefore he still deserves consideration. His numbers, even with Felton taking over more of the minutes, have still been solid for the price. I would think that the Thunder would continue with the hot hand, so if Ferguson manages to get hot, he has more upside. Again, this is a risky situation. Be conscious of that when building your lineup and for what contest you are entering.

My pick: Bogdanovic(SF); George(SF)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Harrison Barnes ($7,000): Aaron Gordon is one of the most inconsistent beasts to ever take a NBA court. It likely wont always be like this, but until he starts putting up totals above 4x value every game, I will most likely avoid him. I would much rather have the Barnes side of the equation since Barnes is a very good defender. Barnes doesn’t have near the upside of Gordon, but his floor is a lot higher. Barnes has at least 30 DraftKings points in five straight and seven of the last eight games. I don’t mind building around that.

Zach Randolph ($6,300): Randolph absolutely abused the Lakers in the first meeting, racking up 47.25 DraftKings points in just 30 minutes! The chances of Randolph doing that again aren’t great, but 6x value is very possible unless his mouth is giving him problems after his first game back.

Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($6,100): Randle is still seeing enough minutes off the bench to be a DFS factor. He put up 31 DraftKings points on the Kings the first time around and has hit that mark or higher in five of the last six games. His upside is capped for the time being since Randle never plays more than 28 minutes, but he does a lot of damage when he is in there.

Kelly Olynyk ($5,700): Olynyk is back to his inconsistent ways with the Heat mostly healthy up front. This is more based on the matchup. I do think Olynyk matches up better than Johnson here, but the Heat may not see it the same way. At any rate, Olynyk should see solid minutes against a pretty inconsistent frontcourt in their own right.

Dark Horses:

Dirk Nowitzki ($5,000): Dirk only plays about half the game nowadays, but he still puts up around 25-30 DraftKings points per game. This is a play that lacks upside, so is probably more suited for cash games. However, GPP’s play differently on a small slate. There is upside to playing safe picks, though they wont help you take down the whole tournament.

Dwight Powell ($3,800): The entirety of the Dallas frontcourt struggled against the Knicks over the weekend. They have a much better matchup tonight with the Magic. Powell isn’t starting, but his bench minutes have provided more than Kleber does starting. Powell has even outdone Dirk a few times since Christmas. He is the upside play of the Dallas frontcourt, but also carries risk since he doesn’t start.

My pick: Powell(PF); Barnes(PF), Randolph(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Hassan Whiteside ($7,100): Whiteside still isn’t back to his normal minutes, but what he did against the Jazz in 26 minutes on Sunday makes me optimistic that he can carry more of the load tonight. Toronto has been pretty solid up front lately, but Whiteside’s blocks and rebounds make him a lower risk than most centers. I like Whiteside’s price this low on a short slate. The potential here is pretty high provided he gets at least 28 minutes. Keep an eye out for any restrictions the team may have on him.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,900): Nurkic has still seen a chunk of his minutes go missing, but he has been so productive in limited minutes that Portland may have to rethink its strategy. Nurkic turned in 47 DraftKings points on this Thunder in 32 minutes in the first matchup. I would think that this success would give Nurkic more run, but this is the NBA. You never know.

Honorable Mention:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,600): The struggles of WCS seem so long ago! Cauley-Stein racked up 38 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes in the first meeting with the Lakers. The Lakers couldn’t stop anyone in the Kings frontcourt that night. L.A. seems marginally better up front, but I still don’t think they can stop Cauley-Stein.

Bismack Biyombo ($5,800): Biyombo is still starting, and putting up rebounding totals in line with some of the best rebounders in the league. That gives Biyombo a solid floor, but he still has limited upside so long as he remains offensively challenged. Though for this price, the rebounding alone could get Biyombo value.

Dark Horses:

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,100): That is two huge games in a row for Valanciunas. Are you going to buy into this? We have seen it before. It usually doesn’t last long. However, with Miami being very cautious with Whiteside, it is entirely possible that Valancuinas could come up with another big game.

Marreese Speights ($3,500): The injury to Vucevic has opened up a couple dozen minutes per night for Speights. There is very limited upside here, but Speights is providing double digit DraftKings points every night since Vucevic went down. Considering that Speights only needs 17.5 DraftKings points for value, most nights he is a solid value play.

My pick: Cauley-Stein(C); Nurkic(C), Valanciunas(UTIL)

Next: NBA DFS Picks and Pivots

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